Predicted Priority Dates for final quarter of FY2005
- Thread starter rrajendr
- Start date
Found this on http://www.immigration-law.com/
"04/15/2005: State Department Informal Prediction of Employment-Based Prioriy Date Retrogression in FY 2005 and FY 2006
The following information has been provided to the AILA in the form of Q&A:
FY 2005 Retrogression Until 09/30/2005:
EB-1: Current
EB-2: Current
EB-3: Remain where it is now, meaning that India, China, and Filipino priority date will move slow and not become current. Worldwide will remain current.
EB-3 (Other Workers): Unavailable (in the near future).
FY 2006 Retrogression (10/01/2005 - 09/30/2006):
EB-1: China and India may be oversubscribed and experience retrogression, sometime during the FY 2006. Filipino and worldwide will remain current.
EB-2: China and India may be oversubscribed and experience retrogression, sometime during the FY 2006. Filipino and worldwide will remain current.
EB-3: Slow movement of cut-off dates for China and India or in the worst case may retrogress further, depending on the pace of the USCIS I-485 backlog reduction speed. "
Similar predictions in http://www.murthy.com/news/n_visdat.html
"This category, which experienced retrogression starting on January 1, 2005 for persons from India, mainland China, and the Philippines, should continue to see forward movement in the priority dates" and "The DOS is working carefully in an attempt to prevent any further EB3 retrogressions for now."
As discussed in various posts, these "predictions" vary from month to month!
As I understand, the factors contributing to should be
A) whether H.R. 139 Act (recapture for Health Care Professionals and as a consequence rest of EB3) is passed or not
B) USCIS goes ahead on AC21 provisions which allow for recapture
C) if less than 27% each has been utilized in the earlier quarters due to cautious planning.
"04/15/2005: State Department Informal Prediction of Employment-Based Prioriy Date Retrogression in FY 2005 and FY 2006
The following information has been provided to the AILA in the form of Q&A:
FY 2005 Retrogression Until 09/30/2005:
EB-1: Current
EB-2: Current
EB-3: Remain where it is now, meaning that India, China, and Filipino priority date will move slow and not become current. Worldwide will remain current.
EB-3 (Other Workers): Unavailable (in the near future).
FY 2006 Retrogression (10/01/2005 - 09/30/2006):
EB-1: China and India may be oversubscribed and experience retrogression, sometime during the FY 2006. Filipino and worldwide will remain current.
EB-2: China and India may be oversubscribed and experience retrogression, sometime during the FY 2006. Filipino and worldwide will remain current.
EB-3: Slow movement of cut-off dates for China and India or in the worst case may retrogress further, depending on the pace of the USCIS I-485 backlog reduction speed. "
Similar predictions in http://www.murthy.com/news/n_visdat.html
"This category, which experienced retrogression starting on January 1, 2005 for persons from India, mainland China, and the Philippines, should continue to see forward movement in the priority dates" and "The DOS is working carefully in an attempt to prevent any further EB3 retrogressions for now."
As discussed in various posts, these "predictions" vary from month to month!
As I understand, the factors contributing to should be
A) whether H.R. 139 Act (recapture for Health Care Professionals and as a consequence rest of EB3) is passed or not
B) USCIS goes ahead on AC21 provisions which allow for recapture
C) if less than 27% each has been utilized in the earlier quarters due to cautious planning.
LaborCleared
Registered Users (C)
Dead Lock with PD's.
If whatever Sandeep found from USCIS and if that is their stand as for now, then I dont think they are planning to use the unused IV numbers of 101k in the coming final quarter and the PD's movement going forward would be slow. Once the BRC's start clearing the backlogged LC then PD movement will automatically slow down as BRC's already confirmed that they have received around 250,000 cases from states and Regional DOL's. There may be still some states who are supposed to ship their full cases to BRC's yet. So, if that is the case then the numbers at BRC's will increase further and this situation will likely cause the slow movement in PD's. Just my thoughts friends.
______________
I am not a lawyer. Just my opinions.
If whatever Sandeep found from USCIS and if that is their stand as for now, then I dont think they are planning to use the unused IV numbers of 101k in the coming final quarter and the PD's movement going forward would be slow. Once the BRC's start clearing the backlogged LC then PD movement will automatically slow down as BRC's already confirmed that they have received around 250,000 cases from states and Regional DOL's. There may be still some states who are supposed to ship their full cases to BRC's yet. So, if that is the case then the numbers at BRC's will increase further and this situation will likely cause the slow movement in PD's. Just my thoughts friends.
______________
I am not a lawyer. Just my opinions.
Equally confused as you are - refer Post 17 on http://boards.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=165909&page=2rrajendr said:
Sandeep
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un used visa ammendements passed ..
un used visa ammendements passed ..
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http://www.shusterman.com/ see the news ticker News Ticker
un used visa ammendements passed ..
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.shusterman.com/ see the news ticker News Ticker
catch_22_4_GC
Registered Users (C)
EB3 Retrgression - Light at end of tunnel
EB3 Retrogression...Light at End of Tunnel
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On April 21, 2005 Senate has passed on Appropriations Bill H.R. 1268. An amendment in this bill relates to EB3 retrogression by recapturing all unused visa numbers for EB3 category for year 2001, 2002,2003 and 2004 and reserving 50 % of such numbers to nurses and the balance to Engineers. The bill now moves to the House for debate and voting.Check this out...More to come! Also check out Shusterman.
http://hutchison.senate.gov/speec438.htm
http://www.aila.org/fileViewer.aspx?docID=18287
Language: The language, as modified and accepted by unanimous consent was amendment #0379 to HR 1268.
Reads: On page 231, between lines 3 and 4, insert the following new section:
Recapture of Visas
Sec.6047. section 106(d)(2)(a) of the American competitiveness in the twenty-first century act of 2000 (PL106-313; 8 USC 1153 note) is amended-
(1) in paragraph (1), by inserting before the period at the end of the second sentence "and any such visa that is made available due to the difference between the number of employment-based visas that were made available in fiscal year 2001,2002,2003 or 2004 and the number of such visas that were actually used in such fiscal year shall be made available only to employment-based immigrants and the dependants of such immigrants, and 50% of such visas shall be made available to those whoseimmigrant worker petitions were approved based on schedule A, as defined in section 656.5 of title 20, Code of Federal Regulations, as promulgated by the Secretary of Labor"; and
(2) in paragraph(2)(A) by striking "and 2000" and inserting "through 2004"
Explanation: Nurses enter the U.S. under the so-called EB-3 immigration category. They primarily enter the U.S. from the Philippines, India, and China. Each of these countries has an annual cap and within that cap a limit on the numbers who may enter the U.S. in each category. Nurses often compete for green cards with other high-tech workers. Because of a backlog in processing these visas, the INS (now the USCIS) has decided to cut-off processing entrants who have filed applications after January 1, 2002. This means that new applicants will be cut off altogether this year.
The above language is modeled on similar language included in the American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (title I of Pub. L. 106-313, enacted on October 17, 2000). This Act recaptured those employment-based numbers that were available but not used in fiscal years 1999 and 2000, thus creating a pool of numbers which could be allocated to EB categories once their annual limit were reached. The new language would recapture the unused numbers from 2001-2004, which, again, would alleviate the arbitrary caps and enable qualified nurse applicants to once again be processed.
EB3 Retrogression...Light at End of Tunnel
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On April 21, 2005 Senate has passed on Appropriations Bill H.R. 1268. An amendment in this bill relates to EB3 retrogression by recapturing all unused visa numbers for EB3 category for year 2001, 2002,2003 and 2004 and reserving 50 % of such numbers to nurses and the balance to Engineers. The bill now moves to the House for debate and voting.Check this out...More to come! Also check out Shusterman.
http://hutchison.senate.gov/speec438.htm
http://www.aila.org/fileViewer.aspx?docID=18287
Language: The language, as modified and accepted by unanimous consent was amendment #0379 to HR 1268.
Reads: On page 231, between lines 3 and 4, insert the following new section:
Recapture of Visas
Sec.6047. section 106(d)(2)(a) of the American competitiveness in the twenty-first century act of 2000 (PL106-313; 8 USC 1153 note) is amended-
(1) in paragraph (1), by inserting before the period at the end of the second sentence "and any such visa that is made available due to the difference between the number of employment-based visas that were made available in fiscal year 2001,2002,2003 or 2004 and the number of such visas that were actually used in such fiscal year shall be made available only to employment-based immigrants and the dependants of such immigrants, and 50% of such visas shall be made available to those whoseimmigrant worker petitions were approved based on schedule A, as defined in section 656.5 of title 20, Code of Federal Regulations, as promulgated by the Secretary of Labor"; and
(2) in paragraph(2)(A) by striking "and 2000" and inserting "through 2004"
Explanation: Nurses enter the U.S. under the so-called EB-3 immigration category. They primarily enter the U.S. from the Philippines, India, and China. Each of these countries has an annual cap and within that cap a limit on the numbers who may enter the U.S. in each category. Nurses often compete for green cards with other high-tech workers. Because of a backlog in processing these visas, the INS (now the USCIS) has decided to cut-off processing entrants who have filed applications after January 1, 2002. This means that new applicants will be cut off altogether this year.
The above language is modeled on similar language included in the American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (title I of Pub. L. 106-313, enacted on October 17, 2000). This Act recaptured those employment-based numbers that were available but not used in fiscal years 1999 and 2000, thus creating a pool of numbers which could be allocated to EB categories once their annual limit were reached. The new language would recapture the unused numbers from 2001-2004, which, again, would alleviate the arbitrary caps and enable qualified nurse applicants to once again be processed.
Last edited by a moderator:
HI
There is another very good news for the final quarter from the DOS office. For the remaining quarter this year remaining visas (apart 27% from the first three quarters) among 140K+7K from previous years family based + 101K from AC21 FY1999-2000 are available. This will make the PD forward. Thanks to r_sada in keeping the faith up.
Following is the complete details:
http://www.immigration.com/fromtheagency/doseb1.html
There is another very good news for the final quarter from the DOS office. For the remaining quarter this year remaining visas (apart 27% from the first three quarters) among 140K+7K from previous years family based + 101K from AC21 FY1999-2000 are available. This will make the PD forward. Thanks to r_sada in keeping the faith up.
Following is the complete details:
http://www.immigration.com/fromtheagency/doseb1.html
House-Sentate Conference?
From thomas.loc.gov, it looks like the senate -house conference was held yesterday? See activity log:
4/21/2005:
Passed Senate with an amendment and an amendment to the Title by Yea-Nay Vote. 99 - 0. Record Vote Number: 109. (text: CR 04/25/2005 S4195-4214)
4/21/2005:
Senate insists on its amendments, asks for a conference, appoints conferees Cochran; Stevens; Specter; Domenici; Bond; McConnell; Burns; Shelby; Gregg; Bennett; Craig; Hutchison; DeWine; Brownback; Allard; Byrd; Inouye; Leahy; Harkin; Mikulski; Reid; Kohl; Murray; Dorgan; Feinstein; Durbin; Johnson; Landrieu.
4/25/2005:
Message on Senate action sent to the House.
4/25/2005:
Senate ordered measure printed as passed.
4/26/2005 4:37pm:
Mr. Lewis (CA) asked unanimous consent that the House disagree to the Senate amendments, and agree to a conference (consideration: CR H2506-2509, H2518-2519)
4/26/2005 4:37pm:
On motion that the House disagree to the Senate amendments, and agree to a conference Agreed to without objection.
4/26/2005 4:38pm:
Mr. Obey moved that the House instruct conferees. (consideration: CR H2506-2509, H2518-2519; text: CR H2507)
4/26/2005 4:54pm:
The previous question was ordered without objection.
4/26/2005 7:11pm:
On motion that the House instruct conferees Agreed to by the Yeas and Nays: 417 - 4 (Roll no. 133).
4/26/2005 7:11pm:
Motion to reconsider laid on the table Agreed to without objection.
4/26/2005 7:32pm:
The Speaker appointed conferees: Lewis (CA), Young (FL), Regula, Rogers (KY), Wolf, Kolbe, Walsh, Taylor (NC), Hobson, Bonilla, Knollenberg, Obey, Murtha, Dicks, Sabo, Mollohan, Visclosky, Lowey, and Edwards.
4/27/2005:
Conference held.
Anyone has any news?
Also check out http://www.murthy.com/chatlogs/ch042505_P.html for a new interpretation on recapture (Search for "unused visa")
Sandeep
From thomas.loc.gov, it looks like the senate -house conference was held yesterday? See activity log:
4/21/2005:
Passed Senate with an amendment and an amendment to the Title by Yea-Nay Vote. 99 - 0. Record Vote Number: 109. (text: CR 04/25/2005 S4195-4214)
4/21/2005:
Senate insists on its amendments, asks for a conference, appoints conferees Cochran; Stevens; Specter; Domenici; Bond; McConnell; Burns; Shelby; Gregg; Bennett; Craig; Hutchison; DeWine; Brownback; Allard; Byrd; Inouye; Leahy; Harkin; Mikulski; Reid; Kohl; Murray; Dorgan; Feinstein; Durbin; Johnson; Landrieu.
4/25/2005:
Message on Senate action sent to the House.
4/25/2005:
Senate ordered measure printed as passed.
4/26/2005 4:37pm:
Mr. Lewis (CA) asked unanimous consent that the House disagree to the Senate amendments, and agree to a conference (consideration: CR H2506-2509, H2518-2519)
4/26/2005 4:37pm:
On motion that the House disagree to the Senate amendments, and agree to a conference Agreed to without objection.
4/26/2005 4:38pm:
Mr. Obey moved that the House instruct conferees. (consideration: CR H2506-2509, H2518-2519; text: CR H2507)
4/26/2005 4:54pm:
The previous question was ordered without objection.
4/26/2005 7:11pm:
On motion that the House instruct conferees Agreed to by the Yeas and Nays: 417 - 4 (Roll no. 133).
4/26/2005 7:11pm:
Motion to reconsider laid on the table Agreed to without objection.
4/26/2005 7:32pm:
The Speaker appointed conferees: Lewis (CA), Young (FL), Regula, Rogers (KY), Wolf, Kolbe, Walsh, Taylor (NC), Hobson, Bonilla, Knollenberg, Obey, Murtha, Dicks, Sabo, Mollohan, Visclosky, Lowey, and Edwards.
4/27/2005:
Conference held.
Anyone has any news?
Also check out http://www.murthy.com/chatlogs/ch042505_P.html for a new interpretation on recapture (Search for "unused visa")
Sandeep
Sandeep_N said:
Chat User : Good evening, Attorney Murthy. There is talk that the Senate is working on retrieving the unused visa numbers from 2001-2004. Could you please give us some information on this?
Attorney Murthy : Yes, there is some talk about this issue but nothing definite yet. In fact, we have written an article on this issue for this Friday’s (April 29, 2005) issue of the MurthyBulletin in connection with the topic of the DOS and visa numbers. Some suggest that the additional visa numbers may go to nurses only. Others hope it will help other professionals, while others believe that the unused numbers will be used for worldwide quota levels so that the backlogs may again slide back, but there is nothing definite yet, so we have to wait and see what happens!
LaborCleared
Registered Users (C)
Where can we find this??
Can we find this info on DOS website. Does anyone have the link which can directly point to this news. If we find this information and DOS thinking directly on their website then it will sound much authentic. Doesn't it?
Can we find this info on DOS website. Does anyone have the link which can directly point to this news. If we find this information and DOS thinking directly on their website then it will sound much authentic. Doesn't it?
rrajendr said:
new murthy bulletin
1. DOS Answers Questions on Employment-Based Visa Numbers
With retrogression back as an immigration reality for many since January 2005, there is increased interest in understanding how the immigrant visa numbers are allocated and how the cut-off dates in the Visa Bulletin are established. Those unfamiliar with the topic of retrogression should review our December 10, 2004 NewsFlash, Employment Visa Numbers Retrogress, available on MurthyDotCom. The U.S. Department of State (DOS) provided additional insight to the employment-based visa number calculations and projections in mid-April 2005.
Quarterly Percentages
Rather than making all visa numbers available at the beginning of each fiscal year and then having a period of unavailability, visa number allotments must be spread throughout the year. Therefore, in each of the first three quarters of every fiscal year, the DOS can only release up to 27% of the available visa numbers per category, per quarter. By contrast, the DOS confirmed that there is no percentage limit on visa numbers in the fourth quarter of every year. The U.S. government's fiscal year runs from October 1 through September 30 each year. Therefore, the last quarter is July, August, and September of any given year.
For example, the employment-based third preference (EB3) category is granted up to 28.6 percent of the minimum 140,000 visa numbers available per year, or 40,040 visa numbers. In each of the first three quarters, the DOS can only release 27 percent of these, or approximately 10,810 visa numbers per quarter. Note that this example only includes the minimum number of visa numbers available and does not address any additional available numbers from prior years. If, of the total available numbers, a full 27 percent is used in the first three quarters, only 19 percent of the visa numbers will remain for the final quarter. If the usage in the first three quarters is lower, however, and, of the visa numbers, more than 27 percent remains, it is permissible for the DOS to release more than 27 percent of the total available visa numbers for a preference category in the final quarter. Essentially, the numbers are spread out during the first three quarters and whatever is left is available during the last quarter.
USCIS Biggest User of Visa Numbers
At present, the DOS estimates that the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) allocates approximately 90 percent of the available visa numbers through its processing of I-485 applications to adjust status. Therefore, of the employment-based visa numbers, only about 10 percent is being used through consular processing. MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers should not assume that this means there is an advantage to using consular processing instead of adjustment of status. The consulates are bound by the same retrogression restrictions as the USCIS. Both the USCIS and the consulates are drawing from the same limited supply of visa numbers.
Additional Visa Numbers Consumed from Prior Years
Approximately 131,000 additional visa numbers were made available from a provision in the law that permitted the rollover of unused numbers in fiscal years 1999 and 2000 into subsequent years. Of these, 30,000 were used in fiscal year (FY) 2003. The remaining numbers are expected to be completely used in FY2005.
There is movement in Congress to provide some additional, limited EB3 visa numbers - possibly for nurses and other professionals or skilled workers - but there is no guarantee that a law will be passed to accomplish this. Any significant developments in this important area will be the subject of future MurthyBulletin articles, all of which also become available on MurthyDotCom.
Future Projections of EB3 Retrogressions
For the remainder of FY2005, the DOS expects the EB3 numbers not to move much in either one direction or the other. EB1 and EB2 are not expected to retrogress during FY2005, which ends September 30, 2005.
Projections of EB2 Retrogressions
In the second half of FY2006, the EB2 category is expected to retrogress for mainland China and India. The DOS projects that the EB1 category may possibly also retrogress for India and China in FY2006.
Conclusion
The issues of visa numbers and priority date movement have, once again, become an integral part of employment-based immigration practice. This follows a number of years of relative ease during which employment based numbers were current and available in all employment-based categories. Anyone involved in the employment-based immigration process should try to get at least a basic, fundamental understanding of this key issue. It determines the direction and timing of a case and is vital to immigration strategy and planning. We at The Law Office of Sheela Murthy will continue to follow this matter to update our MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers.
© 2005, The Law Office of Sheela Murthy, P.C. All Rights Reserved
1. DOS Answers Questions on Employment-Based Visa Numbers
With retrogression back as an immigration reality for many since January 2005, there is increased interest in understanding how the immigrant visa numbers are allocated and how the cut-off dates in the Visa Bulletin are established. Those unfamiliar with the topic of retrogression should review our December 10, 2004 NewsFlash, Employment Visa Numbers Retrogress, available on MurthyDotCom. The U.S. Department of State (DOS) provided additional insight to the employment-based visa number calculations and projections in mid-April 2005.
Quarterly Percentages
Rather than making all visa numbers available at the beginning of each fiscal year and then having a period of unavailability, visa number allotments must be spread throughout the year. Therefore, in each of the first three quarters of every fiscal year, the DOS can only release up to 27% of the available visa numbers per category, per quarter. By contrast, the DOS confirmed that there is no percentage limit on visa numbers in the fourth quarter of every year. The U.S. government's fiscal year runs from October 1 through September 30 each year. Therefore, the last quarter is July, August, and September of any given year.
For example, the employment-based third preference (EB3) category is granted up to 28.6 percent of the minimum 140,000 visa numbers available per year, or 40,040 visa numbers. In each of the first three quarters, the DOS can only release 27 percent of these, or approximately 10,810 visa numbers per quarter. Note that this example only includes the minimum number of visa numbers available and does not address any additional available numbers from prior years. If, of the total available numbers, a full 27 percent is used in the first three quarters, only 19 percent of the visa numbers will remain for the final quarter. If the usage in the first three quarters is lower, however, and, of the visa numbers, more than 27 percent remains, it is permissible for the DOS to release more than 27 percent of the total available visa numbers for a preference category in the final quarter. Essentially, the numbers are spread out during the first three quarters and whatever is left is available during the last quarter.
USCIS Biggest User of Visa Numbers
At present, the DOS estimates that the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) allocates approximately 90 percent of the available visa numbers through its processing of I-485 applications to adjust status. Therefore, of the employment-based visa numbers, only about 10 percent is being used through consular processing. MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers should not assume that this means there is an advantage to using consular processing instead of adjustment of status. The consulates are bound by the same retrogression restrictions as the USCIS. Both the USCIS and the consulates are drawing from the same limited supply of visa numbers.
Additional Visa Numbers Consumed from Prior Years
Approximately 131,000 additional visa numbers were made available from a provision in the law that permitted the rollover of unused numbers in fiscal years 1999 and 2000 into subsequent years. Of these, 30,000 were used in fiscal year (FY) 2003. The remaining numbers are expected to be completely used in FY2005.
There is movement in Congress to provide some additional, limited EB3 visa numbers - possibly for nurses and other professionals or skilled workers - but there is no guarantee that a law will be passed to accomplish this. Any significant developments in this important area will be the subject of future MurthyBulletin articles, all of which also become available on MurthyDotCom.
Future Projections of EB3 Retrogressions
For the remainder of FY2005, the DOS expects the EB3 numbers not to move much in either one direction or the other. EB1 and EB2 are not expected to retrogress during FY2005, which ends September 30, 2005.
Projections of EB2 Retrogressions
In the second half of FY2006, the EB2 category is expected to retrogress for mainland China and India. The DOS projects that the EB1 category may possibly also retrogress for India and China in FY2006.
Conclusion
The issues of visa numbers and priority date movement have, once again, become an integral part of employment-based immigration practice. This follows a number of years of relative ease during which employment based numbers were current and available in all employment-based categories. Anyone involved in the employment-based immigration process should try to get at least a basic, fundamental understanding of this key issue. It determines the direction and timing of a case and is vital to immigration strategy and planning. We at The Law Office of Sheela Murthy will continue to follow this matter to update our MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers.
© 2005, The Law Office of Sheela Murthy, P.C. All Rights Reserved
LaborCleared
Registered Users (C)
hahahaha. Look at this Murthy.com's article now. While I do not have anything against their practice and their bulletin reports, all year long they claimed the use of left over IV numbers can be used by enactment of law and now all of a sudden they took time to explain how the numbers work and also came with nice article saying 101k numbers are expected to be used in final quarter of FY 2005. What a funny article. A TOTAL CONTRADICTING ARTICLE. Where the hell are ethics of reporting?? 
USCIS had clearly mentioned in their Jan 2005 visa bulletin that 101k numbers are available for use in FY 2005. Atleast looking at that bulletin I thought it is an open secret.
On top of it they say DOS is expected the PD will not move in either direction which I have underlined and made it bold. Well, few days back DOS official had said that to AILA then how the heck they came up with the article to say rolledover 101k numbers will be used in final quarter of FY2005? Do they mean to say that USCIS/CP has enough applications pending with them to eat up all 101k numbers+ 19% of FY 2005 numbers in just 1 final quarter with out moving the PD's beyond the ball park range where they are right now? Do you guys think it is a MILLION DOLLAR question??? Well, I think it is a LIFE WITH GREEN CARD question....
Your thoughts needed please..
------------------------------------
I am not a lawyer. Just a reader of this forum and above are my personal opinons only.
USCIS had clearly mentioned in their Jan 2005 visa bulletin that 101k numbers are available for use in FY 2005. Atleast looking at that bulletin I thought it is an open secret.
On top of it they say DOS is expected the PD will not move in either direction which I have underlined and made it bold. Well, few days back DOS official had said that to AILA then how the heck they came up with the article to say rolledover 101k numbers will be used in final quarter of FY2005? Do they mean to say that USCIS/CP has enough applications pending with them to eat up all 101k numbers+ 19% of FY 2005 numbers in just 1 final quarter with out moving the PD's beyond the ball park range where they are right now? Do you guys think it is a MILLION DOLLAR question??? Well, I think it is a LIFE WITH GREEN CARD question....
Your thoughts needed please..
------------------------------------
I am not a lawyer. Just a reader of this forum and above are my personal opinons only.
appan said:1. DOS Answers Questions on Employment-Based Visa Numbers
With retrogression back as an immigration reality for many since January 2005, there is increased interest in understanding how the immigrant visa numbers are allocated and how the cut-off dates in the Visa Bulletin are established. Those unfamiliar with the topic of retrogression should review our December 10, 2004 NewsFlash, Employment Visa Numbers Retrogress, available on MurthyDotCom. The U.S. Department of State (DOS) provided additional insight to the employment-based visa number calculations and projections in mid-April 2005.
Quarterly Percentages
Rather than making all visa numbers available at the beginning of each fiscal year and then having a period of unavailability, visa number allotments must be spread throughout the year. Therefore, in each of the first three quarters of every fiscal year, the DOS can only release up to 27% of the available visa numbers per category, per quarter. By contrast, the DOS confirmed that there is no percentage limit on visa numbers in the fourth quarter of every year. The U.S. government's fiscal year runs from October 1 through September 30 each year. Therefore, the last quarter is July, August, and September of any given year.
For example, the employment-based third preference (EB3) category is granted up to 28.6 percent of the minimum 140,000 visa numbers available per year, or 40,040 visa numbers. In each of the first three quarters, the DOS can only release 27 percent of these, or approximately 10,810 visa numbers per quarter. Note that this example only includes the minimum number of visa numbers available and does not address any additional available numbers from prior years. If, of the total available numbers, a full 27 percent is used in the first three quarters, only 19 percent of the visa numbers will remain for the final quarter. If the usage in the first three quarters is lower, however, and, of the visa numbers, more than 27 percent remains, it is permissible for the DOS to release more than 27 percent of the total available visa numbers for a preference category in the final quarter. Essentially, the numbers are spread out during the first three quarters and whatever is left is available during the last quarter.
USCIS Biggest User of Visa Numbers
At present, the DOS estimates that the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) allocates approximately 90 percent of the available visa numbers through its processing of I-485 applications to adjust status. Therefore, of the employment-based visa numbers, only about 10 percent is being used through consular processing. MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers should not assume that this means there is an advantage to using consular processing instead of adjustment of status. The consulates are bound by the same retrogression restrictions as the USCIS. Both the USCIS and the consulates are drawing from the same limited supply of visa numbers.
Additional Visa Numbers Consumed from Prior Years
Approximately 131,000 additional visa numbers were made available from a provision in the law that permitted the rollover of unused numbers in fiscal years 1999 and 2000 into subsequent years. Of these, 30,000 were used in fiscal year (FY) 2003. The remaining numbers are expected to be completely used in FY2005.
There is movement in Congress to provide some additional, limited EB3 visa numbers - possibly for nurses and other professionals or skilled workers - but there is no guarantee that a law will be passed to accomplish this. Any significant developments in this important area will be the subject of future MurthyBulletin articles, all of which also become available on MurthyDotCom.
Future Projections of EB3 Retrogressions
For the remainder of FY2005, the DOS expects the EB3 numbers not to move much in either one direction or the other.
Projections of EB2 Retrogressions
In the second half of FY2006, the EB2 category is expected to retrogress for mainland China and India. The DOS projects that the EB1 category may possibly also retrogress for India and China in FY2006.
Conclusion
The issues of visa numbers and priority date movement have, once again, become an integral part of employment-based immigration practice. This follows a number of years of relative ease during which employment based numbers were current and available in all employment-based categories. Anyone involved in the employment-based immigration process should try to get at least a basic, fundamental understanding of this key issue. It determines the direction and timing of a case and is vital to immigration strategy and planning. We at The Law Office of Sheela Murthy will continue to follow this matter to update our MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers.
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