JUNE VISA BULLETIN PREDICTIONS...Time to tie the knot with your Greencard

Amnesty to illegals

DBEC_Labor_Pain said:
I strongly wish n pray your prediction do not come right. ;)
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My perdiction is that the USCIS will leave everything behind (EB3, EB2, and even EB1 will stay where they are) and start prossessing amnesty apps of illegals.:eek:
... while we watch another tsunami of retrogression .. :(
 
yup-

Padosan said:
My perdiction is that the USCIS will leave everything behind (EB3, EB2, and even EB1 will stay where they are) and start prossessing amnesty apps of illegals.:eek:
... while we watch another tsunami of retrogression .. :(
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I would not be surprised, if they do that. They never cease to amaze me. :rolleyes:
 
Visa Dates Prediction

saras76 said:
CarolVA,

ROW will always be ahead of India. There is a 7% cap on India and it will stay till ROW becomes current. So in that sense India EB3 movement is dependent on how things work out in ROW. ROWs movement has nothing to do with India movement.

cheers,

saras
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Greetings to every one here!! This is my first post under any forum and any Web site.

As some of you have stated, it is next to impossible to make any predictions on what we are going to see in future Visa bulletins. I do not know when prospective immigrants will start realizing that US immigration policy is taking them for a BIG ride. First, there were State-wise labor certification waiting lists; while some one who filed in Maine State in June 2004 got an approval instantly, people who had filed in Texas in 2001 were still waiting for their labor approval. Then in March 2005, they stopped State-wise priority dates and introduced PERM having one common priority date. Then everybody here knows about dates becoming current, unavailable and retrogress and move back and forth.

Anyway, as far as the 'prediction' made by Murthy in consultation with Oppenheim is concerned, I am very confident that there would some movement for India and China EB-2 category because ROW-EB2 is current and so is EB1 for entire World. So unused EB1 numbers go to EB2 category and since every country other than China and India is current, all those Visa numbers from EB1 will go to China and India. And as for how many those numbers are and which country gets how many during June/July/August, it is any body's guess.

My confidence about movement for EB2 in June 2007 is based on 2 related issues....1. Removal of labor substitution and 2. (THIS IS TOO IMPORTANT TO BE IGNORED!!) Increase in fees for various applications in the process of Permanent Residency....such as I-140 and I-485 effective June 2007.

On the 1st reason...removal of labor substitution......it is quite evident that the USCIS/DOL etc. etc. (Hey! They are all US Feds) are aware of all the labor substitutions (should be quite a number) that they have approved till recently and they know that those who have taken the pain and risk to substitute labor would definitely be willing to spend a higher fee (the 2nd reason.....higher fee effective June 2007) if they are given an opportunity to file I-140 and or I-485, EADs APs etc.

On the 2nd reason, it is very obvious why the dates for EB2 India have moved only one week (from January 1, 2003 to January 8, 2003) between June 2006 and May 2007 Visa bulletins. The plan to increase the fees for various applications has been there for a while and they are making it effective June 2007 so that when they move the dates for any country for June 2007, there will be a bunch of applicants flocking the USCIS to file I-140s and I-485s, EADs and APs at a rate that is 200% to 300% higher than what the fees are right now till end of May 2007 (I think it even includes H1Bs and H1B renewals).

So EB2 friends from India, get ready to file your I-140s, I-485s, EADs and APs starting June 2007.

I have been silent for years now on immigration issues, but now I have decided to voice my thoughts and years of research. Forget about country-wise quotas.....it is all about hiring of immigrants (both legal and illegal) by American employers as bonded labor till they get you that 'precious' GC. Because, they very well know that once they give you a GC, you are a free bird and that, this country doesn't want you to be...at least not soon enough.
 
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Imm_Exploited said:
I am very confident that there would some movement for India and China EB-2 category because ROW-EB2 is current and so is EB1 for entire World. So unused EB1 numbers go to EB2 category and since every country other than China and India is current, all those Visa numbers from EB1 will go to China and India.
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Nop. Check last year. Unused visas from EB1 and EB2 go to EB3 ROW not India and not China.
 
Visa retrogression by particular Country

Is there a way to find Visa availability by particular country name?
Each country has a quota of 7% visa numbers and there are countries with very little population like Bahrain where people hardly migrate to US. I will appreciate if anybody can help finding the visa number by country name.
Thanks
 
voldemarv said:
Nop. Check last year. Unused visas from EB1 and EB2 go to EB3 ROW not India and not China.
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Nope too!! How can unused EB1 go to EB3 ROW without EB2 being current for India and China? What about category-wise quotas? EB1 gets 28.6% of 140000 and EB2 gets 28.6% and so on. The unused of EB1 first go to EB2 (28.6% = 40040 + Unused from EB1) and then if the EB2 numbers go unused, those numbers will go to EB3 and so on.

Last year (fiscal 2006), they have adjudicated 37504 under EB1 and only 22430 under EB2 for the entire world. Under EB3 however, they adjudicated 63365 which is way beyond 40040 under the pretext of EB1 and EB2 going unused. I am getting sick of the numbers being wasted especially when they set dates for retrogression under EB1 and EB2 categories.
 
The rollover is EB1 ROW -> EB2 ROW -> EB3 ROW -> EB1 India/China/etc -> EB2 India/China/etc -> EB3 India/China/etc. So EB2 India can never be current until EB3 ROW is current.
 
Jackolantern said:
The rollover is EB1 ROW -> EB2 ROW -> EB3 ROW -> EB1 India/China/etc -> EB2 India/China/etc -> EB3 India/China/etc. So EB2 India can never be current until EB3 ROW is current.
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If one looked at September 2005 Visa bulletin, while EB-ROW including CH-IN-ME-PH were all 'U' or 'Unavailable', EB1 and EB2 for ROW, China, India, Mexico and Philippines were all 'C' or 'Current'. Can any one explain this situation where EB3 ROW is 'U' when EB2 China and India is 'C'??
 
Imm_Exploited said:
If one looked at September 2005 Visa bulletin, while EB-ROW including CH-IN-ME-PH were all 'U' or 'Unavailable', EB1 and EB2 for ROW, China, India, Mexico and Philippines were all 'C' or 'Current'. Can any one explain this situation where EB3 ROW is 'U' when EB2 China and India is 'C'??
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Clarification: EB2 India can be current when when EB3 ROW is retrogressed or unavailable. However, in the current situation where EB2 India has many more applicants than the 7% would allow, it would need a rollover from ROW or EB1 India in order to become current.

2005 was a year with tens of thousands of recaptured numbers from prior years. EB2 India being current at that time while EB3 ROW was unavailable meant that there were enough visas under the 7% cap (which was 7% of a larger number) to satisfy the demand for EB2 India without needing a rollover from EB3 ROW. However, the big retrogression of EB2 India in October 2005 shows that EB2 India probably should not have been current in September 2005.
 
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Imm_Exploited said:
If one looked at September 2005 Visa bulletin, while EB-ROW including CH-IN-ME-PH were all 'U' or 'Unavailable', EB1 and EB2 for ROW, China, India, Mexico and Philippines were all 'C' or 'Current'. Can any one explain this situation where EB3 ROW is 'U' when EB2 China and India is 'C'??
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In June 2007, EB2 India and China will not move much (if at all, may be couple of weeks or months). This is due to DOS statergy not to allow more than 3000 EB2 visas for India and China per year. This will be true to EB3 India and China too. It is a simple reason: that is 7% quota. (or DOS do not want to asianise the EB). 3000 visas (or 1500 primary) per year for India and China is way toooooo small to move the date for India and China by considerable period based on fact that magnitude of peoples from these most populous countries entered in H1B and H4 in last 7 years and waiting for GC.

This was discused so many times by so many peoples..

Anyway (regarding your question about 2005) most people did not analyze the facts and the history well. Becuse I monitered the situation last 6 years I write this.

Before 2000 (1997 to 1999) EB was in retrogression. The retrogression was in only in EB3 India and China. All other catagoies were current including EB3 ROW during that period. It never retrogressed till 2005.

AC21 recaptured more than 100,000 EB visas in 2000 just to clear the demand/backlogs in EB3 India and China. These additional numbers were came from unused EB2 and EB1 numbes in 1999 and 1998. These numbers not came from EB3 catagory. Any way, these additional numbers avaliable from 2000 to consume. Because of so many factors (USCIS slow, labor slow, 911 etc..) these numbers were not consmed even after 4 years of implementation of AC21. In 2005, USCIS took massive backlog reduction effort to elimate backlogs in 485. Therefore they consumed all 100,000 numbers in 2005. They issued 250,000 EB visas in 2005. As these addtional AC21, numbers came form EB1 and EB2 pool, they kept current for EB2 catagories. Still they issued just 40,000 EB2 visas compare to 150,000 EB3 visas. EB3-ROW itself consumed about 100,000 EB3 visas in 2005. Becuse there was/is no EB2 demand, they issued more EB3 numbers. When thenumbers were near to end, they started retrogressing EB3-India China in 2004. That time eB3-ROW was current. When they realised they gave more EB3 numbers (and no more numbers avilable) then they made EB3 "unavaliable". Thats all. In simple term EB3 including ROW consumed more EB3 numbers in 2005, though the orignal purpuse AC21 recapture is to elimante retrogression in EB3 India and China.
 
hmmm

Jackolantern said:
Clarification: EB2 India can be current when when EB3 ROW is retrogressed or unavailable. However, in the current situation where EB2 India has many more applicants than the 7% would allow, it would need a rollover from ROW or EB1 India in order to become current.

2005 was a year with tens of thousands of recaptured numbers from prior years. EB2 India being current at that time while EB3 ROW was unavailable meant that there were enough visas under the 7% cap (which was 7% of a larger number) to satisfy the demand for EB2 India without needing a rollover from EB3 ROW. However, the big retrogression of EB2 India in October 2005 shows that EB2 India probably should not have been current in September 2005.
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With so much research and analysis being done on this "retrogression" ton(p)ic, it would be interesting to see whose prediction(s) will be accurate. Hopefully, before the next weekend they will release the June bulletin...Good Luck to all of us.

~~~
Case Type - EB2
PD - 10/01/2003
Labor Approved - Dec'2006
140 Approved - Jan'2007
485 - Waiting to file ...
 
Before making such comments, please research more on this forum.

This topic has been discussed many times. You are likely an Indian EB-2 who is in denial phase. Apart from Eb3 row getting the visa numbers you should also be aware of India EB-3 porting their PD to EB-2 route.

In all the picture is not so rosy as you are painting out. It may improve slightly because of pending name check of most of the people who applied last year. But that does not mean much in the longer run for getting GC in hand for most of those who applied in late 2002 onwards for Eb India.

Imm_Exploited said:
Nope too!! How can unused EB1 go to EB3 ROW without EB2 being current for India and China? What about category-wise quotas? EB1 gets 28.6% of 140000 and EB2 gets 28.6% and so on. The unused of EB1 first go to EB2 (28.6% = 40040 + Unused from EB1) and then if the EB2 numbers go unused, those numbers will go to EB3 and so on.

Last year (fiscal 2006), they have adjudicated 37504 under EB1 and only 22430 under EB2 for the entire world. Under EB3 however, they adjudicated 63365 which is way beyond 40040 under the pretext of EB1 and EB2 going unused. I am getting sick of the numbers being wasted especially when they set dates for retrogression under EB1 and EB2 categories.
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Imm_Exploited said:
Nope too!! How can unused EB1 go to EB3 ROW without EB2 being current for India and China? What about category-wise quotas? EB1 gets 28.6% of 140000 and EB2 gets 28.6% and so on. The unused of EB1 first go to EB2 (28.6% = 40040 + Unused from EB1) and then if the EB2 numbers go unused, those numbers will go to EB3 and so on.

Last year (fiscal 2006), they have adjudicated 37504 under EB1 and only 22430 under EB2 for the entire world. Under EB3 however, they adjudicated 63365 which is way beyond 40040 under the pretext of EB1 and EB2 going unused. I am getting sick of the numbers being wasted especially when they set dates for retrogression under EB1 and EB2 categories.
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Right now the implementation followed by the USCIS is countries and then categories; not categories and then countries. The reason for this being anticipated demand, actual demand and finally the movement is predicted by the delta in the actual demand and the anticipated demand. After considering all these they could come up with only two options,
1. Are you row eb3 ?
2. Are you not row eb3 ?

Sometime in future, we will be presented with more options as per the situation at that time.

If you read murthy's bulletin (Saiser's posting), it says India retrogressed categories will move forward even though there may not be many visa numbers available. May be Saras76 is right in saying that the movements are actually based on anticipated demand.

If you are India EB2 with 2003 PD, you should get ready to file 485 and get EADs before the dates are moved backwards in October.
 
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EB3 India it is doom

indian_gc_ocean said:
If you read murthy's bulletin (Saiser's posting), it says India retrogressed categories will move forward even though there may not be many visa numbers available. May be Saras76 is right in saying that the movements are actually based on anticipated demand.

If you are India EB2 with 2003 PD, you should get ready to file 485 and get EADs before the dates are moved backwards in October.
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DOS can not move dates for India EB3 and EB2 just arbitarly. If they move it will be in weeks or days. Untill they realize demand rate, such as how many people will file 485 and how many's 485s will be approved (if already filed before 2004) they will move forward with caution. If they may move forward significantly, they have to retrogress back in Aug or before the end of FY 2007 if demand is so high. Only 4 more months left in FY 2007. On top of that EB3-ROW has moved by a year now. It will drastically consume the numbers.

Therefore there is no much hope for India particularly in EB3.

It is very clear that, as per DOS practice, till EB3-ROW becomes current, India will get only 3000 EB3 (may be 1500 primary) visas per year. This is so dangerous for EB3-India.

Now my big question. What happens if EB3-ROW never become "current" for forseeable future? Lets see the following hypothetical situation. Lets say in 2008 about 300,000 to 400,000 140s approved on account of fast PERM and premium 140s. Let us assume most of them belongs to ROW. Therefore, ROW will not become current for next 3 to 4 years after 2008. There is no guarenty that EB3-ROW demand will slow down after 2008. Due to ROW is in always high demand, EB3-India will get only 3000 visas for forseeable future. Let us assume there are 20,000 to 40,000 EB3 Indians with PD in between 2001 and 2002. These peoples PD will never become current for next 10 years.

It leads to very unfair system. An EB3 Indian with PD 2002 may able to file 485 only after a persion with PD 2008 in EB3-ROW gets his card. This may take years and years. Therefore this is very unfair system. One has to educate DOS about this danger. What I feel is that 7% quota should be applied for only one year. The next year all remaining applicant from high demand countries have to be treated equially (no country quota for previous year PDs). Till all the applicants from one FY PD is given GC, DOS should not accept 485s for next year.
 
We will know whether it is arbitrary or not(i.e based on the remaining available visa numbers in the year/based on the anticipated demand). For me it looks like a movement as per the future demand. We can see this by the amount of movement in the next 3 bulletins.

I don't think this movement changes 3000 numbers per category thus effecting people who are already waiting for approval. But this gives lot of people a chance to file their 485s so that they get their EADs, APs... We can all guess that by this time, India EB2/EB3 would not even be left with 500 odd unused visas. So, if the movement is is going to be only few weeks, I don't think a attorney like Murthy would give so much importance to it.
 
Visa Number By Particular Country

Jackolantern,
Can you please explain how does this work ? Table V PartII ,Immigrant visa issued and adjustments of status Fiscal Year 2006 shows only 8 for country BAHRAIN.in employment catagory. How to find if the visa number for Bahrain is combined with ASIA or it has its own percentage share.
Thanks
 
Decide for yourself ...

indian_gc_ocean said:
We will know whether it is arbitrary or not(i.e based on the remaining available visa numbers in the year/based on the anticipated demand). For me it looks like a movement as per the future demand. We can see this by the amount of movement in the next 3 bulletins.

I don't think this movement changes 3000 numbers per category thus effecting people who are already waiting for approval. But this gives lot of people a chance to file their 485s so that they get their EADs, APs... We can all guess that by this time, India EB2/EB3 would not even be left with 500 odd unused visas. So, if the movement is is going to be only few weeks, I don't think a attorney like Murthy would give so much importance to it.
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Here are some facts that should help most people understand that most of the visa demand decisions are made on "anticipated demand"

Fact 1: Up until a few months ago, the DHS and USCIS had no idea about the number of cases pending in the BECs. The number being thrown around was 300,000. Only recently have there been worthwhile updates from BECs. The updates have have come out of BECs have not been as serious as first reported.

Fact 2: The BECs have not had/do not have/will never have any statistical record of the pending labor cases. They do not know the % of EB3 vs EB2. More importantly, they do not know the breakdown of nationalities. Since they do not know this, neither do DHS or USCIS.

Fact 3: The BECs have and continue to approve cases in totally random fashion. There is no telling how many 01 vs 02 vs 03PDs are left.

Fact 4: There is no way to relate the number of BEC approvals to 140/485 applications because a LOT of people have opted for PERM while others have moved on.

Fact 5: The track record for USCIS and DOS is atrocious. There is very little accountability and oversight.

Fact 6: Close to 10,000 visas went unutilized last year. Under the current retrogression this equates to about 4 times the 2800 visas that are being given to India.

Taking all these facts into account, it is completely preposterous to think that the movement of the bulletins are being based on a well thoughtout, systematic process. The way I see it, they are slowly opening portions of what they deem to be a damn of pending applications. If they open up the flood gates, they risk drowning. The best approach is to open it a little at a time, observe it for a while and then further open or close depending on how much water flows through. THATS AS SCIENTIFIC AS THESE AGENCIES CAN GET :) :) If you think otherwise then you need a reality check.

PS: None of this is meant to refute the fact that the demand for EB3 India remains high and that the situation is dire. Neither is the above meant to indicate that dates are being artifically retrogressed. All that is being said is that the whole process is a mess and one can ONLY expect to get lucky.

later,

saras
 
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