JULY VISA BULLETIN -Again predict the movement, it dont hurt.

T

thera33

Registered Users (C)
Its soon time again, only a few weeks to go, with the Senate debating CIR and the House will soon follow, throw in your predictions. It maybe the penultimate or last time for most of us to predict the movements because you dont know what CIR has in store for us!
 
I doubt EB2 India will be current. However, I am hoping it will move at least a year to April 1st, 2005 in the next 3 months if not the next month itself. Lets hope for the best.
 
eb2/eb3 = current for july, aug, sep
all 2006/2007 applications will be approved in july & aug
then in sep
eb3 pd will be may 2001
one step forward 2 steps backward is nsc farmers motto
:mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:
 
July 2007 Vis Bulletin Prediction

EB2 - stays at where it is now - For all countries - No movement

EB3 - India - DEC 2004 , CHINA - One more year of movement ahead ROW - stays at where they are.
 
How are you guessing about the movement of PD? I see lot of people are getting approved their I-485.
I am guessing atleast moves by 6 months in all categories..
 
mariner555 said:
if the above happens then I will believe that miracles do happen :)
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mariner555,

It seems to be miracle. BUt if you are stuck in retrogression for 5 years and have analyzed retrogression all that period carefully you can derive this easily. Some years back EB2 was all the way moving while EB3 was stangnant. Now Visa numbers are Cyclic in nature so retrogression logically has to be cyclic in nature then and then only system survives. So When EB3 has to be moved then EB2 has to be stopped and at one point of time (I am guessing September bulletin) you will find all categories (EB2,EB3) stopped moving ahead perhaps retrogressed again. And those retrogressed newly would find their Nirvana in new point based system ultimately.
 
Based on massive approvals in EB3-India (as flood gate opened), I highly doubt EB3-India might have consumed about 3000 (7% quota) by this time. I predict EB3-India may become unavailable in July.

This is what I feel,

EB2 India - June 2004
EB3 India - Unavailable or roll back to June 2002
EB3-ROW - Dec 2005
 
In the 4th Quarter ...there is no per country limit. All the remaining quota of other countries will be utilized for the retrogressed countries. Next month visa bulletin will come by June 15th. In order to announce by June 15-18th, they have to finalize at least 3-4 days before. By next week mid they will finalize. So in the next 7 days we have to see how many more approvals will come. The first 5 days looks like very slow. Even though The flood gates are opened on June 1st, as everyone expected there is no flood of approvals...

Chances are good that EB3/EB2 will move further.

Sree

perm_lc said:
Based on massive approvals in EB3-India (as flood gate opened), I highly doubt EB3-India might have consumed about 3000 (7% quota) by this time. I predict EB3-India may become unavailable in July.

This is what I feel,

EB2 India - June 2004
EB3 India - Unavailable or roll back to June 2002
EB3-ROW - Dec 2005
Click to expand...
 
sree1965 said:
In the 4th Quarter ...there is no per country limit. All the remaining quota of other countries will be utilized for the retrogressed countries. Next month visa bulletin will come by June 15th. In order to announce by June 15-18th, they have to finalize at least 3-4 days before. By next week mid they will finalize. So in the next 7 days we have to see how many more approvals will come. The first 5 days looks like very slow. Even though The flood gates are opened on June 1st, as everyone expected there is no flood of approvals...

Chances are good that EB3/EB2 will move further.

Sree
Click to expand...

Though law says, there is no quarter bussiness with DOS. If you see, in last year, last two months (Aug, sep) EB2-India went unavailable. If you see, last year statistics, India finally got about 3000 visas in each EB catagories. All the numbers had gone to EB3-ROW.
 
Is it possible to do fingerprints before priority date is current?

sree1965 said:
In the 4th Quarter ...there is no per country limit. All the remaining quota of other countries will be utilized for the retrogressed countries. Next month visa bulletin will come by June 15th. In order to announce by June 15-18th, they have to finalize at least 3-4 days before. By next week mid they will finalize. So in the next 7 days we have to see how many more approvals will come. The first 5 days looks like very slow. Even though The flood gates are opened on June 1st, as everyone expected there is no flood of approvals...

Chances are good that EB3/EB2 will move further.

Sree
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sree1965...could you tell me, please, if you did your fingerprint before your priority date was current? is it possible?

And is not for sure that everyone who applied for I-485 to have their I-485 approved?...how do you know how many I-485 approvals are?

Thank you in advance.
 
perm_lc said:
Based on massive approvals in EB3-India (as flood gate opened), I highly doubt EB3-India might have consumed about 3000 (7% quota) by this time.
Click to expand...

Flood gate was opened for EB3 labor BEC stuck and that is only for a month in last 3 years. We do not have any statistics of how many 485 are approved for EB3 and this is final quarter and seeing Cyclic nature of VISA numbers and previous history of EB2 remianed moving for a long time during last 3 years now logically it is EB2's time to hold off for a while. My gut feelingis that they will kick EB3's out filed before mid 2005 from BEC queue and then put a hold on EB3. Till then EB2 will remain on hold or may have little move. Once EB3- mid 2005 are done then both will retrogressed once again waiting for next CIR becomes law.
 
Yah, I gave FP before the PD Current and many people did so. So this is not unusual. Probably my PD will be current in the next VB.

Yes, all the I-485s will approved some time. Question is when? How soon the approval comes is the question.

Sree

GC_Europe said:
sree1965...could you tell me, please, if you did your fingerprint before your priority date was current? is it possible?

And is not for sure that everyone who applied for I-485 to have their I-485 approved?...how do you know how many I-485 approvals are?

Thank you in advance.
Click to expand...
 
hi sree1965,
Can you tell me the date for your PD.mine is oct 27,2003 & still waiting for to apply I-485.I am hoping that the dates will move in coming months.
 
bharatpremi said:
Flood gate was opened for EB3 labor BEC stuck and that is only for a month in last 3 years. We do not have any statistics of how many 485 are approved for EB3 and this is final quarter and seeing Cyclic nature of VISA numbers and previous history of EB2 remianed moving for a long time during last 3 years now logically it is EB2's time to hold off for a while. My gut feelingis that they will kick EB3's out filed before mid 2005 from BEC queue and then put a hold on EB3. Till then EB2 will remain on hold or may have little move. Once EB3- mid 2005 are done then both will retrogressed once again waiting for next CIR becomes law.
Click to expand...

I do not know what is the hidden agenta of DOS. It seems it is highly unconsistant. It appears that, till EB3-ROW demand minimizes, EB3 India will get not more than 3000 visas. EB3 India is the least prefered catagory to consume any unused visas by ROW.

The flow of unused visas are

EB1 & EB2 unused by ROW goes to EB3 ROW first, then EB2 India and China, then only EB3 India,China,Mexico and Philiphines.

If any unused visas are available in EB2, EB1 and EB3-ROW pools, it will not go directly to EB3 India without flowing into EB2 India.
 
sree1965:

are you sure if there are left over numbers in other chargeability areas they can be used for retrogressed countries ? Can you please point to USCIS document stating that or any other reliable source where you found this inforamtion.

perm_lc :

where did you find the statistics for last year (3000 for Eb2 and 3000 for eb3). can you please point us to the survey. thanks

Following is my analysis with some educated guesses. I appreciate any feedback

I did some research using data from FLC datacenter regarding number of labor certifications in each year for all EB categories and all countries. Here are the approximate numbers:

2003 - 63000
2004 - 43000
2005 - 6000
2006 - 79782

We now that there are 140,000 visa number avialable for each year for EB category for all countries. Out of 140,000 28.6% goes to EB2 and EB3 ie approximately 40,000 per each category. Considering the 7% per country limit on the above numbers, what do you guys think would be the movement of dates in coming months/years. Obviously the very big unknown is the percentage of certified labors that actually get used and consume a visa number.

Folks please provide some inputs/insights in light of these numbers and some guesses/asumptions

* Also there are NIW cases which donot require Labor Certification.

* In the data provided by FLC DataCenter the GC Labor data before 2005 does not disclose the country of the applicant. And we have donot have the category(ie EB1/EB2/EB3) information of a labor certification at all.

* Also there are many labor cases from 2004 and earlier which are pending in Backlog Reduction Centers which are not included in the numbers I got from FLC Datacenter.

* Note that most( out 6000 certified that year thru PERM) of the EB2 labors that were done during 2005 have already turned into GCs (remember EB2 was current till Oct'2005 ). So the year 2005 have labors that were applied before march 2005(before PERM started) and are probably in BECS and that are certified under EB3 and that are certified after october 2005 when retrogression started on Eb2 too.

* Just as a side note : Imagine how lucky are those people who applied for their labor under EB2 using PERM between march 2005 and october 2005(Eb2 was current then) .Many of them might have gotten their green cards in under two years.

* Of the 79000(approximate) labor certification in 2006 22,298 are from India. Any guesses about how many are from EB3 and EB2 ?

* Looking at the percentage (27%)of applications from India out of the total in 2006.Assuming EB2 aaplications are 20% of the total applications in EB category from India. Guessing 75% of the applications use up the visa number. Here are the projections:

Estimated EB2 visa demand from India Year
2551 2003
1741 2004
243 2005
3200 2006

We know that we have 28.6% of 140,000 for EB2 which is about 40,000. and 7% is country limit for India . so each year a max of about 2800 visa numbers are avialable for EB2 from India applications. So it's anybody's guess how many years (2.7 years) will it take for 2007 priority date in EB2 for India to be current.
 
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