sree1965:
are you sure if there are left over numbers in other chargeability areas they can be used for retrogressed countries ? Can you please point to USCIS document stating that or any other reliable source where you found this inforamtion.
perm_lc :
where did you find the statistics for last year (3000 for Eb2 and 3000 for eb3). can you please point us to the survey. thanks
Following is my analysis with some educated guesses. I appreciate any feedback
I did some research using data from FLC datacenter regarding number of labor certifications in each year for all EB categories and all countries. Here are the approximate numbers:
2003 - 63000
2004 - 43000
2005 - 6000
2006 - 79782
We now that there are 140,000 visa number avialable for each year for EB category for all countries. Out of 140,000 28.6% goes to EB2 and EB3 ie approximately 40,000 per each category. Considering the 7% per country limit on the above numbers, what do you guys think would be the movement of dates in coming months/years. Obviously the very big unknown is the percentage of certified labors that actually get used and consume a visa number.
Folks please provide some inputs/insights in light of these numbers and some guesses/asumptions
* Also there are NIW cases which donot require Labor Certification.
* In the data provided by FLC DataCenter the GC Labor data before 2005 does not disclose the country of the applicant. And we have donot have the category(ie EB1/EB2/EB3) information of a labor certification at all.
* Also there are many labor cases from 2004 and earlier which are pending in Backlog Reduction Centers which are not included in the numbers I got from FLC Datacenter.
* Note that most( out 6000 certified that year thru PERM) of the EB2 labors that were done during 2005 have already turned into GCs (remember EB2 was current till Oct'2005 ). So the year 2005 have labors that were applied before march 2005(before PERM started) and are probably in BECS and that are certified under EB3 and that are certified after october 2005 when retrogression started on Eb2 too.
* Just as a side note : Imagine how lucky are those people who applied for their labor under EB2 using PERM between march 2005 and october 2005(Eb2 was current then) .Many of them might have gotten their green cards in under two years.
* Of the 79000(approximate) labor certification in 2006 22,298 are from India. Any guesses about how many are from EB3 and EB2 ?
* Looking at the percentage (27%)of applications from India out of the total in 2006.Assuming EB2 aaplications are 20% of the total applications in EB category from India. Guessing 75% of the applications use up the visa number. Here are the projections:
Estimated EB2 visa demand from India Year
2551 2003
1741 2004
243 2005
3200 2006
We know that we have 28.6% of 140,000 for EB2 which is about 40,000. and 7% is country limit for India . so each year a max of about 2800 visa numbers are avialable for EB2 from India applications. So it's anybody's guess how many years (2.7 years) will it take for 2007 priority date in EB2 for India to be current.