JULY VISA BULLETIN -Again predict the movement, it dont hurt.

perm_lc said:
I do not know what is the hidden agenta of DOS. It seems it is highly unconsistant. It appears that, till EB3-ROW demand minimizes, EB3 India will get not more than 3000 visas. EB3 India is the least prefered catagory to consume any unused visas by ROW.

The flow of unused visas are

EB1 & EB2 unused by ROW goes to EB3 ROW first, then EB2 India and China, then only EB3 India,China,Mexico and Philiphines.

If any unused visas are available in EB2, EB1 and EB3-ROW pools, it will not go directly to EB3 India without flowing into EB2 India.
Click to expand...

Adding to your logic ( Yes, it is based on facts), They also have to balance the fact that EB2 2005 should not get Visa number while EB3 2001 still in a queue. Nobody talks about that ... Not any lawyers updates... No forums. But legally they will have to see that EB2 filed in 2005 should not get Visa while EB3 2001 is still waiting in a queue to just file 485.. SO what they will do is bring EB2 and EB3 (All categories) to say for an example mid 2005 level. Now EB2 is already forwarded a lot while EB3 already suffered a lot. So till this year maximum Visa numbers alloted to EB2 while next year maximum numbers will be alloted to EB3. They have to do this otherwise USCIS will become busy fighting mass scale law suites.. They can do this only if they put a break first to EB2 and bring EB3 to a level of EB2 and then move forward both EB2 and EB3 to a predetermined level, as I said for an example mid 2005 and then just hold off both of them permanently as Visa numbers will already be consumed and let stuck souls that time be deal with new immigration system
 
Save your breathe and analysis for another week...:p :p It would be good enough if you can do an accurate post analysis after the visa bulletin...:p :p


emerald1 said:
sree1965:

are you sure if there are left over numbers in other chargeability areas they can be used for retrogressed countries ? Can you please point to USCIS document stating that or any other reliable source where you found this inforamtion.

perm_lc :

where did you find the statistics for last year (3000 for Eb2 and 3000 for eb3). can you please point us to the survey. thanks

Following is my analysis with some educated guesses. I appreciate any feedback

I did some research using data from FLC datacenter regarding number of labor certifications in each year for all EB categories and all countries. Here are the approximate numbers:

2003 - 63000
2004 - 43000
2005 - 6000
2006 - 79782

We now that there are 140,000 visa number avialable for each year for EB category for all countries. Out of 140,000 28.6% goes to EB2 and EB3 ie approximately 40,000 per each category. Considering the 7% per country limit on the above numbers, what do you guys think would be the movement of dates in coming months/years. Obviously the very big unknown is the percentage of certified labors that actually get used and consume a visa number.

Folks please provide some inputs/insights in light of these numbers and some guesses/asumptions

* Also there are NIW cases which donot require Labor Certification.

* In the data provided by FLC DataCenter the GC Labor data before 2005 does not disclose the country of the applicant. And we have donot have the category(ie EB1/EB2/EB3) information of a labor certification at all.

* Also there are many labor cases from 2004 and earlier which are pending in Backlog Reduction Centers which are not included in the numbers I got from FLC Datacenter.

* Note that most( out 6000 certified that year thru PERM) of the EB2 labors that were done during 2005 have already turned into GCs (remember EB2 was current till Oct'2005 ). So the year 2005 have labors that were applied before march 2005(before PERM started) and are probably in BECS and that are certified under EB3 and that are certified after october 2005 when retrogression started on Eb2 too.

* Just as a side note : Imagine how lucky are those people who applied for their labor under EB2 using PERM between march 2005 and october 2005(Eb2 was current then) .Many of them might have gotten their green cards in under two years.

* Of the 79000(approximate) labor certification in 2006 22,298 are from India. Any guesses about how many are from EB3 and EB2 ?

* Looking at the percentage (27%)of applications from India out of the total in 2006.Assuming EB2 aaplications are 20% of the total applications in EB category from India. Guessing 75% of the applications use up the visa number. Here are the projections:

Estimated EB2 visa demand from India Year
2551 2003
1741 2004
243 2005
3200 2006

We know that we have 28.6% of 140,000 for EB2 which is about 40,000. and 7% is country limit for India . so each year a max of about 2800 visa numbers are avialable for EB2 from India applications. So it's anybody's guess how many years (2.7 years) will it take for 2007 priority date in EB2 for India to be current.
Click to expand...
 
emerald1 said:
sree1965:

are you sure if there are left over numbers in other chargeability areas they can be used for retrogressed countries ? Can you please point to USCIS document stating that or any other reliable source where you found this inforamtion.

perm_lc :

where did you find the statistics for last year (3000 for Eb2 and 3000 for eb3). can you please point us to the survey. thanks

Following is my analysis with some educated guesses. I appreciate any feedback

I did some research using data from FLC datacenter regarding number of labor certifications in each year for all EB categories and all countries. Here are the approximate numbers:

2003 - 63000
2004 - 43000
2005 - 6000
2006 - 79782

We now that there are 140,000 visa number avialable for each year for EB category for all countries. Out of 140,000 28.6% goes to EB2 and EB3 ie approximately 40,000 per each category. Considering the 7% per country limit on the above numbers, what do you guys think would be the movement of dates in coming months/years. Obviously the very big unknown is the percentage of certified labors that actually get used and consume a visa number.

Folks please provide some inputs/insights in light of these numbers and some guesses/asumptions

* Also there are NIW cases which donot require Labor Certification.

* In the data provided by FLC DataCenter the GC Labor data before 2005 does not disclose the country of the applicant. And we have donot have the category(ie EB1/EB2/EB3) information of a labor certification at all.

* Also there are many labor cases from 2004 and earlier which are pending in Backlog Reduction Centers which are not included in the numbers I got from FLC Datacenter.

* Note that most( out 6000 certified that year thru PERM) of the EB2 labors that were done during 2005 have already turned into GCs (remember EB2 was current till Oct'2005 ). So the year 2005 have labors that were applied before march 2005(before PERM started) and are probably in BECS and that are certified under EB3 and that are certified after october 2005 when retrogression started on Eb2 too.

* Just as a side note : Imagine how lucky are those people who applied for their labor under EB2 using PERM between march 2005 and october 2005(Eb2 was current then) .Many of them might have gotten their green cards in under two years.

* Of the 79000(approximate) labor certification in 2006 22,298 are from India. Any guesses about how many are from EB3 and EB2 ?

* Looking at the percentage (27%)of applications from India out of the total in 2006.Assuming EB2 aaplications are 20% of the total applications in EB category from India. Guessing 75% of the applications use up the visa number. Here are the projections:

Estimated EB2 visa demand from India Year
2551 2003
1741 2004
243 2005
3200 2006

We know that we have 28.6% of 140,000 for EB2 which is about 40,000. and 7% is country limit for India . so each year a max of about 2800 visa numbers are avialable for EB2 from India applications. So it's anybody's guess how many years (2.7 years) will it take for 2007 priority date in EB2 for India to be current.
Click to expand...

Either DOS or DOL is not acting based on statistical data. DOS aim is to issue as many as 140,000 EB visas. They did not care how much LC stuck in BEC, how many approved, how many 140 is approved etc..Only this year they were waiting for very old 245 i cases (pre-2001 EB3). That’s why they were holding EB3 date in 2001 for a long time. Because of this very tight hold for long time, it appears that there will be wastage of visa numbers at the year end. That’s why they opened the flood gate in EB3. Now no one knows how many eligible EB3 (India and China, & ROW) will adjust before it reaches available remaining numbers, as because EB3 ROW jumped 3 years and EB3-India jumped about 2 years in last two months. How much EB3-ROW will yield to EB2 India and EB3 India is uncertain. On top of that, EB3-ROW continuously pours new numbers/demand. Therefore the demand for EB3-ROW never declines. This is highly unfortunate situation for EB3-India, unless DOS shows some mercy to EB3-India. As mentioned any unused visas, can not go to EB3-India without pouring into EB2-India.

Also, we can not come to any conclusion from FLC data center report. Your FLC data center report, says LC certified during the year from 2003 to 2006. It does not say what is the distribution of PD during that year. There may be a LC with PD 2001 might have been certified in 2007, in EB3-ROW.

Regarding statistics for 2006, you can visit

http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/statistics/statistics_3163.html
 
bharatpremi said:
Adding to your logic ( Yes, it is based on facts), They also have to balance the fact that EB2 2005 should not get Visa number while EB3 2001 still in a queue. Nobody talks about that ... Not any lawyers updates... No forums. But legally they will have to see that EB2 filed in 2005 should not get Visa while EB3 2001 is still waiting in a queue to just file 485.. SO what they will do is bring EB2 and EB3 (All categories) to say for an example mid 2005 level. Now EB2 is already forwarded a lot while EB3 already suffered a lot. So till this year maximum Visa numbers alloted to EB2 while next year maximum numbers will be alloted to EB3. They have to do this otherwise USCIS will become busy fighting mass scale law suites.. They can do this only if they put a break first to EB2 and bring EB3 to a level of EB2 and then move forward both EB2 and EB3 to a predetermined level, as I said for an example mid 2005 and then just hold off both of them permanently as Visa numbers will already be consumed and let stuck souls that time be deal with new immigration system
Click to expand...

First read section 201, 202 and 203 of INA. There is no requirement to balance EB3 with EB2. It is all based on demand Vs supply and hierarchy in preference categories as per the law. There is absolutely no requirement in law that EB2 2005 PD has to wait till 2001 EB3 get cleared. The law is if any unused visas in EB1, it goes to EB2. Also if any unused visas in EB2 then only it goes to EB3. If demand in EB2 is high enough to consume all visas, then it cannot go to EB3 at least with in same country of chargeability.

This is the flow of unused visas,

EB1 ROW+EB2 ROW EB3 ROW -> EB2 (High demand countries)-> EB3 (High demand countries).
 
nycxxxx looks like you have huge expectations for July 2007 dates or very near to the current cut-off date or already have a GC. In case you just have huge expectation you sure can hold your breathe for years to come :)
 
thanks perm_lc for the link. but I didnot find the numbers "3000" anywhere in those reports. may be I need to look more closely.
 
emerald1 said:
thanks perm_lc for the link. but I didnot find the numbers "3000" anywhere in those reports. may be I need to look more closely.
Click to expand...


If you see, table 5, part 2, it list the consumption of EB visas by all countries in each category.

Here is the data.

EB1 total issued – 37,000
EB2 total issued – 22,000
EB3 total issued – 63,000

EB1 India – 3100
EB2 India – 3700
EB3 India – 3200

If you analyze, about 20,000 EB2 visas flown to EB3. Thatswhy, EB3 has consumed 63,000 visas. Out of 63,000 EB3 visas issued, India got only 3200. Most of the visas had gone to EB3-ROW.
 
Hi, Don't rack your brain....Might as well play the lotto rather than planning around the bulletin....
All i can say is the dates should move ahead since USCIS said so and that is what I am looking for...:p :p

emerald1 said:
nycxxxx looks like you have huge expectations for July 2007 dates or very near to the current cut-off date or already have a GC. In case you just have huge expectation you sure can hold your breathe for years to come :)
Click to expand...
 
emerald1 said:
sree1965:

* Note that most( out 6000 certified that year thru PERM) of the EB2 labors that were done during 2005 have already turned into GCs (remember EB2 was current till Oct'2005 ). So the year 2005 have labors that were applied before march 2005(before PERM started) and are probably in BECS and that are certified under EB3 and that are certified after october 2005 when retrogression started on Eb2 too.

* Just as a side note : Imagine how lucky are those people who applied for their labor under EB2 using PERM between march 2005 and october 2005(Eb2 was current then) .Many of them might have gotten their green cards in under two years.

Estimated EB2 visa demand from India Year
2551 2003
1741 2004
243 2005
3200 2006
Click to expand...


Good analysis,
But Often theory is very different from reality...

1. You are assuming that Eb2 Perm 2005 would have GC... not true... Yes some of them would have got 485 filed in time... but most of these guys are like me.. Got labor approved last day of concurrent filing... so couldnt do anything. :(

2. Have You counted family numbers in you estimate... for each labor.. there is at least 1 dependent visa app. so your estimate of Eb2 demand would just double, wont it?

So, my thought is that somewhere somethings got to give to make Eb2 India move faster. My hope is that october would bring the next massive movement in Eb2 India (especially, since I am hoping EB3 row would be current then)

EB2.
 
If your priority date is very close to the current cut-off date I think you might probably get what you are looking for. Not to discourage but USCIS also said this is temporary and the dates "might" go back again.

"Once that level of demand begins to exceed the supply of available numbers it will be necessary to make “adjustments” to the cut-off dates. At this time is in not possible to estimate when this is likely to occur, but it is expected."

So if your date is not very close ( I hope your's is ), good luck with your lotto game :)
 
EB2INDPD2005 said:
Good analysis,
But Often theory is very different from reality...

1. You are assuming that Eb2 Perm 2005 would have GC... not true... Yes some of them would have got 485 filed in time... but most of these guys are like me.. Got labor approved last day of concurrent filing... so couldnt do anything. :(


2. Have You counted family numbers in you estimate... for each labor.. there is at least 1 dependent visa app. so your estimate of Eb2 demand would just double, wont it?

So, my thought is that somewhere somethings got to give to make Eb2 India move faster. My hope is that october would bring the next massive movement in Eb2 India (especially, since I am hoping EB3 row would be current then)

EB2.
Click to expand...

Is concurrent filing no longer available ?


You are right. I did not count the family numbers. Yes the Eb2 demand will be doubled now. mmannnn....

thanks
 
perm_lc said:
First read section 201, 202 and 203 of INA. There is no requirement to balance EB3 with EB2. It is all based on demand Vs supply and hierarchy in preference categories as per the law. There is absolutely no requirement in law that EB2 2005 PD has to wait till 2001 EB3 get cleared. The law is if any unused visas in EB1, it goes to EB2. Also if any unused visas in EB2 then only it goes to EB3. If demand in EB2 is high enough to consume all visas, then it cannot go to EB3 at least with in same country of chargeability.

This is the flow of unused visas,

EB1 ROW+EB2 ROW EB3 ROW -> EB2 (High demand countries)-> EB3 (High demand countries).
Click to expand...

First Law: Cyclic flow of Visa numbers
-------------------------------------

There is a bit difference in Cyclic Flow. True Cyclic flow is as under.

EB4-EB5 (UNUSED) -> EB1 (Total Visas: 39200 + EB4-5 Unused)
EB1 (Unused) -> EB2 (Total Visas: 39200 + EB1 - Unused)
EB2(Unused) -> EB3 ( Total Visas: 39200 + EB2-Unused + EB1-Unused)

Note: EB1 unused visas are splitted in EB2 and EB3 depending upon the demand at particular time. No particular limit.

Second Law: First In First Out process for all Labor,I-140 and I-485 stages
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: This is theoretical and time to time many of us have observed that USCIS/BEC not following that madatorily but in general this is the way cases are processed

Third law: per country allocation: Example - India as Country
----------------------------------------------------------

Example country India will get 7 % of Visas in each category.
For example - For EB2 India will be alloted 7 % of (39200 + EB1-Unused) Visas. If Total unused visas transferred from EB1 are 2000 then India will be alloted 7% of 39200 + 7% of 2000 visas. In cyclic flow no country gets priority over other. It will go as per established allocation.

On top of these 3 factors, BEC and USCIS closely monitored each other.. As per future USCIS need anticipation BEC retrogress or open particular stream.

If you can link all to those and can take hypothetical exmple of filing of EB2 2005 case and EB3-2001 filing you will soon come to know that EB2 2005 will never get Visa number prior to EB3 2001.

Thanks.

- BharatPremi
 
I believe in the TSC tracker, they already showed around 40-45.....assuming it's close to 50.....

If you assume, among every 100 approvals....2 guys at least come to this site and informs us....

Assuming 2% representation on this forum....the list of approved is about 50, so it must be in the order of 2500 already (1:50)....and assuming 1 additional dependent....5,000 must be close for India....
this is just a ball park number....

If the representation is higher than 2%....we still have lot more numbers left....If the represenation is less, like around 1%...the numbers should be closed to being used up for INDIA

Remember, the quota is only 2800 for EB3-IND and 2800 for EB2-IND

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
bharatpremi said:
First Law: Cyclic flow of Visa numbers
-------------------------------------

There is a bit difference in Cyclic Flow. True Cyclic flow is as under.

EB4-EB5 (UNUSED) -> EB1 (Total Visas: 39200 + EB4-5 Unused)
EB1 (Unused) -> EB2 (Total Visas: 39200 + EB1 - Unused)
EB2(Unused) -> EB3 ( Total Visas: 39200 + EB2-Unused + EB1-Unused)

Note: EB1 unused visas are splitted in EB2 and EB3 depending upon the demand at particular time. No particular limit.

Second Law: First In First Out process for all Labor,I-140 and I-485 stages
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: This is theoretical and time to time many of us have observed that USCIS/BEC not following that madatorily but in general this is the way cases are processed

Third law: per country allocation: Example - India as Country
----------------------------------------------------------

Example country India will get 7 % of Visas in each category.
For example - For EB2 India will be alloted 7 % of (39200 + EB1-Unused) Visas. If Total unused visas transferred from EB1 are 2000 then India will be alloted 7% of 39200 + 7% of 2000 visas. In cyclic flow no country gets priority over other. It will go as per established allocation.

On top of these 3 factors, BEC and USCIS closely monitored each other.. As per future USCIS need anticipation BEC retrogress or open particular stream.

If you can link all to those and can take hypothetical exmple of filing of EB2 2005 case and EB3-2001 filing you will soon come to know that EB2 2005 will never get Visa number prior to EB3 2001.

Thanks.

- BharatPremi
Click to expand...

Your analysis not justifying how EB3 India get priority over EB2 India. That is simply not possible. Though DOS allocating more visas to EB3, it will go only to ROW to reduce backlog in ROW. Thatswhy ROW has seen 3 year movement in last two months. It never go to India, till the demand in ROW minimizes. For example. in last year, out of total 63,000 EB3 visas issued, India just got 3000 only.

All your cyclic calculations are possible, only if the world wide demand for EB visas are less than 140,000. That is not the case. The demand is substantially high. Furthermore, demand is so high from India in both EB2&3. Even, if we assume, if ROW become current in next bulliton, all excess visas in EB1 goes to EB2. If any number left in EB2 (after consumed by India and China), then it will be given to EB3. The damand for EB2 is so high by Indians and Chineese, it will consume all the numbers (40,000+unused EB1). The EB3 India will stay as like now or go backwards or unavailable.
 
Like this many of us predicted before that it will take years to reach 2003/2004 before the massive movement. If you still believe you can predict good, then goodluck.

My take is if EB2 can reach December 2004 (I don;t know how many are pending from Apr 04 to Dec 04), then it is certain that it can reach July 2005, based on 283 Certified *. 35% (EB2) = 100 PERM approval (India) from Mar 05 to June 05.
And
as some one said most of the early Jan 05 to Mar 05 labors are in backlog.

NOTE: PERM Approval from July 05 to Sept 05 are 1100 (Includes all category)

bharatpremi said:
If you can link all to those and can take hypothetical exmple of filing of EB2 2005 case and EB3-2001 filing you will soon come to know that EB2 2005 will never get Visa number prior to EB3 2001.

Thanks.

- BharatPremi
Click to expand...
 
Emerald1, I can predict for sure you will be writing a lot of posts here for sure. I see signs of Saras II here...:p :p Want to bet against it...:p :p

emerald1 said:
nycxxxx looks like you have huge expectations for July 2007 dates or very near to the current cut-off date or already have a GC. In case you just have huge expectation you sure can hold your breathe for years to come :)
Click to expand...
 
you got that right. I bet you will read all the good analysis made by people posting here and NOT agree with them at all but read them ANYWAY and after that say it's better to wait for bulletin.

sorry I didnot understand your reference to 'Sara II' . Btw did you notice you are way over you average posting rate(0.72) today :D
 
So curiosity Q: Are these discussions leading to a 'no movement' in July for EB3 and EB2 India or a 'backward movement' ? My mind says ''no movement'. I don't expect a forward movement.
 
Again you guys conveniantly forget about the Labor Substitution monster.
Even though according to the alledged new law it will cease to exist after June 18th, it has still 12 days of life left.

Firstly there is 90% probability that the subsitution law will be reinstated, as a lot of livelyhood is depended on it.

Second even if the law really goes away for good, in the next 12 days all the consulting companies who have been holding the labors will file the subsitution. The price of Labor will go down dramatically but they will all get filed and refiled. Lawyers and bhadwaas will work 48 hours a day the next 12 days to substitute millions and millions of Labors (even those for which GC's have been already issued) over and over again. They will just go beserk and blindly subsitute each labor multiple times over and over.

Even though 80% of these labors will get rejected ultimately, but it will take a long time for USCIS to sort out of the muddle, and in the meantime they will be forced to put back the PD's back into the dark ages of 6th century AD.


Trust me the next 12 days are going to be ugly for the USCIS. They are going to be flooded with so much mail (for Labor Sub) that they may have to shut down the offices.
FedEx and UPS are going to have record 2 weeks of their existence.


Based on this expect the next bulletin to show everything unavailable.

neo
 
neocor said:
Again you guys conveniantly forget about the Labor Substitution monster.
Even though according to the alledged new law it will cease to exist after June 18th, it has still 12 days of life left.

Firstly there is 90% probability that the subsitution law will be reinstated, as a lot of livelyhood is depended on it.

Second even if the law really goes away for good, in the next 12 days all the consulting companies who have been holding the labors will file the subsitution. The price of Labor will go down dramatically but they will all get filed and refiled. Lawyers and bhadwaas will work 48 hours a day the next 12 days to substitute millions and millions of Labors (even those for which GC's have been already issued) over and over again. They will just go beserk and blindly subsitute each labor multiple times over and over.

Even though 80% of these labors will get rejected ultimately, but it will take a long time for USCIS to sort out of the muddle, and in the meantime they will be forced to put back the PD's back into the dark ages of 6th century AD.


Trust me the next 12 days are going to be ugly for the USCIS. They are going to be flooded with so much mail (for Labor Sub) that they may have to shut down the offices.
FedEx and UPS are going to have record 2 weeks of their existence.


Based on this expect the next bulletin to show everything unavailable.

neo
Click to expand...



Is this really happening. Wont it count as fraud and result in servere action like blacklisting or ban on the companies that use approved labors again and again ??
 
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