JULY VISA BULLETIN -Again predict the movement, it dont hurt.

This is only discussion and predictions...NO Abuse PLEASE....

Sree


bharatpremi said:
Why do you think this debate is for some "Crown"? And who authorized you to crown somebody? If you feel irritated for whatsoever reason (Perhaps EB2 tagged waiting for your window get opened?) do not read. Generally if I feel that some article or opinion is crap, I do not read it further from the point at where I got convinced about the quality of that opinion. And logically if it is crap as you mentioned then you must be the biggest idiot to waste your time reading crap. If I feel something is crap I would just feel that by reading one or 2 lines and would not read ahead. And you have to read all "Those 2 pages" to decide that this is crap then you must really be an idiot and you would not undrstand this debate at all.

It is not that I wish this happen to EB2 but it is all about what USCIS will do to EB2 in coming months and ofcourse to EB3 as well.

Sanity should be maintained here and particularly perm_lc and I are debating this so if you have real opinions you also please join in this debate with real arguments rather than vomiting waste.

Perhaps I may be wrong or perm_lc may be wrong or we both may be wrong but when time will come, we will accept that without any prejudice.Why do you want to decide that now?
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You are wrong. Spend some time researching the topic. Start with 50+ message threads from the last two years.
Hint - laws, rules, memos don't have the same strength and can conflict with each other.
 
bharatpremi,

Please take some time to understand the process before blabbering like this. I don't know where to start since you have made so many false assumptions and come to erroneous conclusions. For one there is no end of cycle roll over. At the end of the year all unused visa numbers are wasted. Second no one gets a dib at the unused numbers from other categories/countries quota till EB-3 ROW gets current. This was clearly mentioned by USCIS earlier. So there is no way for USCIS to move EB-3 India till it equals EB-2 India.
 
I will have to agree with Jackolantern who made this post (http://www.immigrationportal.com/showpost.php?p=1670693&postcount=9).

They have moved the dates ahead so that more people can file and they can make some money. They have also increased the fees. Hence I think it will retrogress. If not now it will surely happen in the following month. The reason being that is there are only 2800 visas for each category. As UN tried telling time and again a country cannot oversubscribe. If they do oversubscribe then they could potentially face lawsuits. With the cuurent rate at which they are approving cases as this month alone there are many EB3 cases on this very site alone and I am not including the other websites or people who do not come here. There will not be much visa numbers left. So what are they going to do when there are no visa numbers?? Push the dates back.

Thanks.
GCVaruma.
 
I actually agree with major part of your analysis. I was trying to see how much conviction you had in your analysis. All I can say is you have no conviction in your analysis. This is reflected in how easily u gave up on putting any bets on it, however small that might be.
So if u r right u r just lucky.

bharatpremi said:
Why do you think this debate is for some "Crown"? And who authorized you to crown somebody? If you feel irritated for whatsoever reason (Perhaps EB2 tagged waiting for your window get opened?) do not read. Generally if I feel that some article or opinion is crap, I do not read it further from the point at where I got convinced about the quality of that opinion. And logically if it is crap as you mentioned then you must be the biggest idiot to waste your time reading crap. If I feel something is crap I would just feel that by reading one or 2 lines and would not read ahead. And you have to read all "Those 2 pages" to decide that this is crap then you must really be an idiot and you would not undrstand this debate at all.

It is not that I wish this happen to EB2 but it is all about what USCIS will do to EB2 in coming months and ofcourse to EB3 as well.

Sanity should be maintained here and particularly perm_lc and I are debating this so if you have real opinions you also please join in this debate with real arguments rather than vomiting waste.

Perhaps I may be wrong or perm_lc may be wrong or we both may be wrong but when time will come, we will accept that without any prejudice.Why do you want to decide that now?
Click to expand...
 
nyc8300 said:
I actually agree with major part of your analysis. I was trying to see how much conviction you had in your analysis. All I can say is you have no conviction in your analysis. This is reflected in how easily u gave up on putting any bets on it, however small that might be.
So if u r right u r just lucky.
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Well, let's say I will just be lucky and be done with pulling each other's legs. Let's come up with real ideas/info/logic ( Hmm..USCIS and logic:) -- Yes I am wrong here)
 
I think we all should stop here. There is no point in losing temper. We will know the july numbers by this same time next friday.
We are having rollercoster ride sofar. May be, every one of us wrong, USCIS/DOS may surprise us with unimaginable dates. Mean time, sit tight and have fun.
 
perm_lc said:
I think we all should stop here. There is no point in losing temper. We will know the july numbers by this same time next friday.
We are having rollercoster ride sofar. May be, every one of us wrong, USCIS/DOS may surprise us with unimaginable dates. Mean time, sit tight and have fun.
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Yep agreed. Best Luck to you,NYC8300 and every other frustrated soul like us.
 
CIR is dead and VB is important again

Now that the CIR bill appears to be dead (and I am hoping it is not resurrected), prediction of these visa bulletins is going to become important again. The one good thing from all of this is that the H1B quota will not rise either (again I am hoping they don't introduce a separate bill for that), and gradually retrogression will reduce.

The version of CIR that the Dems wanted to pass would have increased retro, and we should really be glad that it is dead.
 
July Prediction

Guys,
My first posting on this forum.

First of all, bad news is the CIR bill is dead for another 2 years atleast. So current policy is the only way and prediction is what keeps our hope alive until the next bulletin comes out.

My prediction : EB2 should move upto oct 2005 within coming 4 months before it sees a severe demand of 485 visas. I looked at the flcdata center data, and from oct to jan23'06( my priority date), every day on an average 15-20 labor has been certified.

EB3 prediction : by this time around next year, it will reach may 2005 before it sees the demand shoot up.

would appreciate your thoughts!!!

"If you want this country to be green, give us green cards"
 
bharatpremi said:
Yep agreed. Best Luck to you,NYC8300 and every other frustrated soul like us.
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actually bharat did some research and he should get some credit. uscis is like an old elephant ..some look at its tail and say elephant looks like a tail ..some look at its trunk ..it eats tons of money and most of the time it gives out some crap on the 15th and writes some mumbo jumbo about future.
luckily for many of us from India ..we atleast have an option to go back ..many feel that esp since $$ is sliding.(ito of rupees it means we have had 15 % salary reduction :)).
 
It is still in the air

I think USCIS dont follow any stats or planned visa releases. If it is we ya'll would have GC by now...

I think they opened the gates with the assumption CIR will pass thru... Now CIR moved to ice box, there may be retrogression very soon...

My belief is USCIS follow more instincts and vegas planning..(pure gambling) when it comes to visa numbers...

But we should be happy to see veterans (01,02,03) getting approvals...

Thanks
 
I would predict EB3 & EB2 will move atleast 2-3 months. I hope I am right. Again , I am predicting based on their June Bulletin where they said it is likely that employment categories will continue to move in coming months. Keeping my fingers crossed.
From June Bulletin:
"E. EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS

The current level of demand in many of the Employment-based categories has been much lower than anticipated. As a result, the June cut-off dates have been advanced significantly in an effort to maximize number use under the annual numerical limits. At this time it appears likely that there will be additional advances during the coming months.

All readers should be aware that such cut-off date movements should allow for action to be finalized on a significant number of Citizenship and Immigration Services adjustment of status cases. Once that level of demand begins to exceed the supply of available numbers it will be necessary to make “adjustments” to the cut-off dates. At this time is in not possible to estimate when this is likely to occur, but it is expected. "
 
I agree with ohiogc since that prediction is made by USCIS themselves. They sound cautiosly optimistic but optimistic(for next months).

ohiogc said:
I would predict EB3 & EB2 will move atleast 2-3 months. I hope I am right. Again , I am predicting based on their June Bulletin where they said it is likely that employment categories will continue to move in coming months. Keeping my fingers crossed.
From June Bulletin:
"E. EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS

The current level of demand in many of the Employment-based categories has been much lower than anticipated. As a result, the June cut-off dates have been advanced significantly in an effort to maximize number use under the annual numerical limits. At this time it appears likely that there will be additional advances during the coming months.

All readers should be aware that such cut-off date movements should allow for action to be finalized on a significant number of Citizenship and Immigration Services adjustment of status cases. Once that level of demand begins to exceed the supply of available numbers it will be necessary to make “adjustments” to the cut-off dates. At this time is in not possible to estimate when this is likely to occur, but it is expected. "
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if all were calculations in the past two years worth anything.........there should be no movement in EB2/EB3-india for the next 4-5 months.

reason....there will be enough cases approved this months itself that uscis can make them Unavailable for the rest of the year.

i do agree that they forwarded the dates.....just to get some quick bucks.......and of course to do some justice to people waiting since 2001.

i can see that they are approving almost by PD and hopefully they will clear everything upto 2002/2003 in the next few months.
 
Hi Techy2468,
Can I leave my phone number with you and can you tell me how visa dates move in the coming bulletin. I can save some time sorting through crap and u seem to love spreading the word...:p :p

techy2468 said:
if all were calculations in the past two years worth anything.........there should be no movement in EB2/EB3-india for the next 4-5 months.

reason....there will be enough cases approved this months itself that uscis can make them Unavailable for the rest of the year.

i do agree that they forwarded the dates.....just to get some quick bucks.......and of course to do some justice to people waiting since 2001.

i can see that they are approving almost by PD and hopefully they will clear everything upto 2002/2003 in the next few months.
Click to expand...
 
nyc8300 said:
Hi Techy2468,
Can I leave my phone number with you and can you tell me how visa dates move in the coming bulletin. I can save some time sorting through crap and u seem to love spreading the word...:p :p
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dude by your own words........you will get crap from me even if you leave your phone number :)

lets wait and see.....i am feeling that many people are going to be randomly lucky......and many will be left with that unlucky heartburn...
 
important question

Hi All,
I was wondering if anyone knows the answer to this ..there is a possibility that I may become current in next few months i.e to file for 485. I understand that we have to do our medicals and take few shots ..however we are expecting our second child ...what can be done in this case ..I dont know if my wife can take the shots now ..what can be done in this case ..can we file for 485 without medicals for my wife ..our aim is to get a EAD at the very least ..please reply ...it will be appreciated
 
rambharose90 said:
Hi All,
I was wondering if anyone knows the answer to this ..there is a possibility that I may become current in next few months i.e to file for 485. I understand that we have to do our medicals and take few shots ..however we are expecting our second child ...what can be done in this case ..I dont know if my wife can take the shots now ..what can be done in this case ..can we file for 485 without medicals for my wife ..our aim is to get a EAD at the very least ..please reply ...it will be appreciated
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You can file the 485 without the medicals, but then USCIS will send an RFE for the medicals. If you don't respond to the RFE within the stated deadline, your case could be denied.

My suggestion would be to make an appointment with a designated doctor and do the medicals. Get the full stuff done for yourself, and explain the situation to the doctor about your wife. Maybe there are certain times of the pregnancy when certain shots are safe. Then you can plan accordingly. If necessary you can file the 485 with medicals just for yourself and then do your wife's own later. You won't have to redo the medicals if they are less than 12 months old when you file the 485.
 
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