Isn't the LC Sub date 16th July and not 18th June....
If it is try and think before u write 2 pages of analysis....
If it is try and think before u write 2 pages of analysis....
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JULY VISA BULLETIN -Again predict the movement, it dont hurt.
- Thread starter thera33
- Start date
bharatpremi
Registered Users (C)
Labor substitution would end in 3rd week of July.. But anyway You are right
, those "Bhad.." have already earned their "Dalali" for approved labors from 1999 to 2004 way back. All "Deshi" companies also might have cashed 1999-2004 labors by now and if they have not then they are not "Deshi". Applicants from 2005-2007 , it does not matter as only difference could be just waiting in Queue B in place of Queue A.. Those souls anyway get their "Nirvana" after 2010...perhaps in new CIR.. The only problem their substitution may create is to slow down I-140 processing but USCIS in turn monitoring BEC and I-140 queues can in turn would wait to open window for EB3 - ( 2003/04/mid 2005) and EB2 ( 2004/ mid 05). And that wait logically can not be beyond sepember end as BECs will be done with total load ( That's what they say.. )
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Then we are even more screwed.
And what i said above is absolutely correct, this happens and its has mainly been because of these practices that the Visa numbers were thrown so far back the last few years.
The USCIS has been cleaning the muddle for the last 3 years, and now they have come to the conclusion that this abuse of Labor substitution is more of a head ache.
The proof is clearly here. USCIS after clearing through the crap realized they wasted 14000 Visa numbers last year because of faulty LS applications pending. So now in order to compensate they bring the PD forward and decide to do away with LS.
neo
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Next time, back your 1 pager comment with atleast 1 fact and try and keep outright wrongful data, out.
bharatpremi
Registered Users (C)
1) I am not comparing EB3-India over EB2-India. You are generalizing it. I
was comparing EB2- India case filed in year 2005 with EB3-India case filed
in 2001.There is a big difference.
2) EB2-INDIA has laready got its share and you can very well see it by going
through all bulletins from year 2001 to 2007. Now it is its time to wait and
EB3-India's time to get forward.It is not a rocket science. Just take
bulletins of all years as I said and 6 pack of beer (Helps us a lot
) and you would right away agree with me.
3) Both EB2 and EB3-India will forward till MID 2005 in coming months ( Till
Sepember Bulletin) and then both will be severly retrogressed with aim to
have resolution in new CIR based immigration system ultimately.
4) Unused ones do not go to ROWs by default. It also has to follow per
country based criteria and EB1 unused ones are splitted between EB2 and
EB3. It is not like they route through EB2 first and then go to EB3. At the
start they splitted between EB2 and EB3. Now what would be the
proportion of that split.. I do not know. If you read first paragraph of EB3
category in any Visa bulletin, you will realize the fact.
Now having said all this, It has been observed by many that USCIS/BEC do not seem to be following FIFO and all other process patterns all the time but as a general rule we can say that they try to follow established patterns...
- Yes, but here you are missing one important fact that in recent past years
EB2 already moved forward with a greta speed while USCIS just put a
tight hold on EB3 ( Particularly EB3-India did not move for 3 years
substantially..)
- Now to respect the process of FIFO, USCIS will have to bring EB3 at EB2
level first ( As per June bulletin April 2004). SO USCIS will do that task first
by keeping hold on EB2 for a while
StillAlive
Registered Users (C)
Your statement is nothing but an emotional explanation about EB2 over EB3.
How do explain China EB2 at 01JAN06 and EB3 at 01JUN03, isn't this difference fair?
How do explain China EB2 at 01JAN06 and EB3 at 01JUN03, isn't this difference fair?
1) I am not comparing EB3-India over EB2-India. You are generalizing it. I
was comparing EB2- India case filed in year 2005 with EB3-India case filed
in 2001.There is a big difference.
2) EB2-INDIA has laready got its share and you can very well see it by going
through all bulletins from year 2001 to 2007. Now it is its time to wait and
EB3-India's time to get forward.It is not a rocket science. Just take
bulletins of all years as I said and 6 pack of beer (Helps us a lot
you would right away agree with me.
3) Both EB2 and EB3-India will forward till MID 2005 in coming months ( Till
Sepember Bulletin) and then both will be severly retrogressed with aim to
have resolution in new CIR based immigration system ultimately.
4) Unused ones do not go to ROWs by default. It also has to follow per
country based criteria and EB1 unused ones are splitted between EB2 and
EB3. It is not like they route through EB2 first and then go to EB3. At the
start they splitted between EB2 and EB3. Now what would be the
proportion of that split.. I do not know. If you read first paragraph of EB3
category in any Visa bulletin, you will realize the fact.
Now having said all this, It has been observed by many that USCIS/BEC do not seem to be following FIFO and all other process patterns all the time but as a general rule we can say that they try to follow established patterns...
- Yes, but here you are missing one important fact that in recent past years
EB2 already moved forward with a greta speed while USCIS just put a
tight hold on EB3 ( Particularly EB3-India did not move for 3 years
substantially..)
- Now to respect the process of FIFO, USCIS will have to bring EB3 at EB2
level first ( As per June bulletin April 2004). SO USCIS will do that task first
by keeping hold on EB2 for a while
You are assuming so many things. Not going thro all the reports. Apart from analyzing visa bullitons, analyze the report of visa office between 2000 and 2006, howmany visas were issued in each catagories for each countries. First of all, between year 2000 and dec 2004, all EB catagories were "current" including EB3 Inda, Mexico, China. During that perod no one cared about EB2 or EB3, including myself. I did not care how my LC was filed when both EB3 and EB2 were current. During that period, all employers, employees and lawyers prefered to file EB3, as it was easy to get certified. Furhtermore, if any one file EB2 labor, employer has to pay very high salary, because, that time only two tier prevailing wage, unlike in PERM system where 4 tier wage determinations were introduced. Therefore, from year 2000 to dec 2004, most of the labor were filed in EB3 (may be 75%), as there is no difference between EB2 and EB3, in terms of time reqired to get GC. Becuse, both take same time, during that period, EB2 labor was very very less. Thats why the EB2 date moved very fast when they rolled back the EB2 cutoff date for India in Oct 2005. It is not as per your theory to balance EB2 and EB3. It is just matter of demand in each catagory. To validate my theory, now no one is reporting EB2-485 approvals in this month, though cutoff date moved by 14 months. I am seeing massive EB3-485 approvals in first 6 days after floodgate opened.
Therefor till 2005, majority of LC are EB3. After Jan 2005 it is reverse. Therefore EB2 moves fast till 2005, after that it will freeze. EB3 will become unavailable or retrogress back to 2002.
GCInThisLife
Registered Users (C)
I think the fast moment is because there aren't enough I-485 filings in the system that have already reached the final approval stage to consume the available visa numbers and fill the annual quota before the end of fiscal year. USCIS has been conservative about the cut-off dates so far as they expected a lot of new filings as a result of backlog elimination. They did this as an ac of fairness towards the older PDs that got stuck in BEC. This doesn't seem to be going as they expected because of either not enough labors got cleared or recent 485 filings are not reaching final approval stage as fast because of background checks etc. So, now they are forced to move the dates and the 'unfairness' is happening i.e., you can see from recent approvals that many folks with PDs from 2003 and even 2004 (from retro countries and barely escaped BEC or got approved from 'faster' Dallas BEC before retrogression) are getting approved.
Once the new flood from the June'07 start reaching final approval stage, there would again a lot of demand for visas as most of these apps are from 2001-2002 in EB3 and 2003 and EB2. In my workplace itself, there are 5 new I485 filings this month all with 2002-2003 PDs.. and you can easily extrapolate. There is a strong possibility of future retrogression.
All EB categories still get their 28.6% share with 7% max (~3K) for country. If you look at how many folks from india file for GC including dependents this number isn't much. The only way it can exceed this number is for a retro country is if ROW cannot use up the annual quota. Since EB3 ROW is also retrogressed, this wouldn't be the case. If EB3 ROW is current, then excess visas would first got to EB1 retro -> EB2 retro -> EB3 retro. The reason why dates were current in 2004-2005, there was a bill/law that allowed USCIS to recapture unused visas from previous year. This made a lot more visas available. Do you know in that year, India alone got around got 47K visas??
I still think, in spite of many EB2s filed recently in Perm, there would be more EB3s than EB2 as it is a little difficult to qualify for EB2. The trick here is not the applicant having the qualification, but company to prove that they really have that kind of requirement and of course commitment to pay the 'high' wage - I may be wrong here.
Once the new flood from the June'07 start reaching final approval stage, there would again a lot of demand for visas as most of these apps are from 2001-2002 in EB3 and 2003 and EB2. In my workplace itself, there are 5 new I485 filings this month all with 2002-2003 PDs.. and you can easily extrapolate. There is a strong possibility of future retrogression.
All EB categories still get their 28.6% share with 7% max (~3K) for country. If you look at how many folks from india file for GC including dependents this number isn't much. The only way it can exceed this number is for a retro country is if ROW cannot use up the annual quota. Since EB3 ROW is also retrogressed, this wouldn't be the case. If EB3 ROW is current, then excess visas would first got to EB1 retro -> EB2 retro -> EB3 retro. The reason why dates were current in 2004-2005, there was a bill/law that allowed USCIS to recapture unused visas from previous year. This made a lot more visas available. Do you know in that year, India alone got around got 47K visas??
I still think, in spite of many EB2s filed recently in Perm, there would be more EB3s than EB2 as it is a little difficult to qualify for EB2. The trick here is not the applicant having the qualification, but company to prove that they really have that kind of requirement and of course commitment to pay the 'high' wage - I may be wrong here.
bharatpremi
Registered Users (C)
That is what I am trying to point all the time. EB2 in all categories already got its share of preference in process. For analysis purpose I closely monitor India category as it directly affect to my case. I would not say that I am doing the same for other categories. Bottom line now it is a time for EB3 to get forward and matches EB2 to particular mark. For India I believe, that mark is mid 2005. For China it could be start of January 2006.. I can not confidently predict anything about categories for other countries but USCIS might have defined particular time mark for them as well which may or may not be different than India. For India, USCIS will bring EB2 and EB3 both at mid 2005 level and will then send them to hell (Retrogression) again.
Do you think re-capture or because of the unused numbers used by India?
Are they still using the un-used in the next year or is it only in the year(2004/2005)..
In this case are they going to use the 11,000 un-used(As everyone was talking) are going to use this year?
"Visa Numbers Based on Demand
©MurthyDotCom
As regular MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers know, visa number movement is based upon a number of variables, one of which is the amount of expected demand. [The U.S. Department of State's Visa Bulletin chart is always available on MurthyDotCom.] The U.S. Department of State (DOS) must estimate this demand when it determines what cutoff dates, if any, to establish in the monthly Visa Bulletin. If the demand which DOS has anticipated does not materialize, it is possible that visa numbers will go unused. When asked, Mr. Oppenheim mentioned that this did happen last year and resulted in about 11,000 immigrant visa numbers not being used last fiscal year."
http://www.murthy.com/mb_pdf/042707_P.html
Any light on the un-used visas in the last year(s)...
Sree..
Are they still using the un-used in the next year or is it only in the year(2004/2005)..
In this case are they going to use the 11,000 un-used(As everyone was talking) are going to use this year?
"Visa Numbers Based on Demand
©MurthyDotCom
As regular MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers know, visa number movement is based upon a number of variables, one of which is the amount of expected demand. [The U.S. Department of State's Visa Bulletin chart is always available on MurthyDotCom.] The U.S. Department of State (DOS) must estimate this demand when it determines what cutoff dates, if any, to establish in the monthly Visa Bulletin. If the demand which DOS has anticipated does not materialize, it is possible that visa numbers will go unused. When asked, Mr. Oppenheim mentioned that this did happen last year and resulted in about 11,000 immigrant visa numbers not being used last fiscal year."
http://www.murthy.com/mb_pdf/042707_P.html
Any light on the un-used visas in the last year(s)...
Sree..
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bharatpremi
Registered Users (C)
Fully agree. No debate for what you wrote here. Perhaps I have not mentioned all these in earlier posts but I am counting all these factors in addition to what I have wrote till now as well. My only point is that USCIS seems to be bringing both EB2 and EB3 at particular time mark. To me, for India that time mark seems to be mid 2005 based on my analysis. EB2 has almost reached there (One year behind?) EB3 still has alarger gap (2 years) So USCIS will kick EB3 to bring it at par with EB2. By next September you will see lot of movements in EB3 (As you saw in June) and little movement EB2 ( For July perhaps no movement). Ultimately, By September both EB2 and EB3 for INdia will come and sit at mid 2005 and then onwards both will go to hell (retrogression) again. For otehr countries same pattern will be followed with may be different time mark.
GCInThisLife
Registered Users (C)
I do not have a reference of where I read this.. It said, there was a 'temporarily' rule to capture un-used visas from a 'specific (??)' category from previous years which made the available visas to jump. However, they do not do cingular roll-over thing every year and unused visas do go waste. I we look into report USCIS releases on visa allocation per country/category basis, we can notice that ~10K visas do in fact go unused every year because predicted number of I485 filings do not make it final approval stage in time.
If roll-over exists, USCIS can truly wait for BEC to finish and wait for some more to time to be fair to applicants with older PDs and not worry about visas going un-used.
If roll-over exists, USCIS can truly wait for BEC to finish and wait for some more to time to be fair to applicants with older PDs and not worry about visas going un-used.
Why should USCIS should bring EB3 and EB2 at same time mark? What is the law?. It is just the mater of demand vs supply in each catagory. If demand in EB2 is less than suppy, it will move fast, otherwise not. The same is true to EB3. There is no relation between those. It is as simple.
As per your logic, now EB1-India is current (June 2007). Now EB2 india is 2004. Why the difference? Why USCIS is not balancing to same timemark with EB1 and EB2? If you see FB catagories, FB2-Philipines is in 1994 and FB3 Philipines in 1985. About 10 year difference between two immediate catagoirs for same country? Why USCIS not applying your logic there? So do not get confuse and do not confuse other.
I agree with permlc. There is no rule/law to balance different categories at any particular point of time. As many have pointed out, visa #s is purely a demand and supply game based on current law.
Also I agree with permlc with the pre 2005 LC process for EB2/EB3. My own lawyer had convinced me to aply for EB3 (even tho I qualified for EB2) saying that it would be easier to get approval in EB3 category. Also, a lot of friends and coworkers applied for and certified under EB3. Hence my optimisim that EB2 India dates will move significantly forward to 2005.
Also I agree with permlc with the pre 2005 LC process for EB2/EB3. My own lawyer had convinced me to aply for EB3 (even tho I qualified for EB2) saying that it would be easier to get approval in EB3 category. Also, a lot of friends and coworkers applied for and certified under EB3. Hence my optimisim that EB2 India dates will move significantly forward to 2005.
bharatpremi
Registered Users (C)
Nope. "Demand and Supply" is not the ONLY factor , it is one of the factors.
End Equation is "0.28X0.07" - Country limit + "Demand and Supply" + FIFO + Cycle for Unused ones + interim memos/rules declared by USCIS
We should not forget FIFO process conviniently. Taking your example, EB1 does not have supply and so it is current and there you are right. Where as both EB2 and EB3 have heavy supply. USCIS has to cover 7% first and follow FIFO rule. EB2-1999 should be processed first with comparision to EB2 -2002 and that is FIFO( I hope you would not argue on this at least
). Now when unused visa numbers need to be splitted between EB2 and EB3, there does not seem to be any legal law and since there is no particular law,we can assume that USCIS might have splitted equally between EB2 and EB3 OR just send them to EB2 or EB3 alone. So starting from year 2004 till now EB2 is progressed fairly but EB3 was almost stuck at or below April 2001 during all this period. So legally then they can not keep one particular lot in hell for a long while granting/prefering other lot in such a way that large gap created since there is a heavy supply in both lots. Since there is a heavy supply in both category legally it would be impossible for them to create a process in which EB2 2006 gets visa first while EB3 -2001 ( This is example showing large gap in filing in terms of years so do not take it literary) still getting rotted in BEC or in I-140 queue. USCIS will have to atleast bring them in 485 queue for getting rotted further and wait there rather than waiting in BEC queue. I would agree iwth you if one of the category has way less supply with comparision to other. But here in EB2/3 both are with heavy demand and supply then other fators will play their roles as deciding factor. USCIS preferred EB2 till now starting from 2004 but it can not do that for long and it has to take EB3 into consideration since EB3 is also heavy supplier. I may be wrong probably at one area that I am believing that USCIS is trying to bring EB2 and EB3 at "one single" particular time mark. There USCIS may have little different criteria for an example EB2-India sits at June 2005 and EB3 sits at April 2005.. But hey, for 100% accurate prediction we also need 100% current data about how USCIS really works and sets inside processes. So, I believe I may have a right to be 90% correct and 10 % wrong .. perhaps, Don't I?
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Ok! Let's put some stakes in. If you r right you will be crowned 'expert'. If you r wrong you will be crowned one big stupid blabbering idiot and you will agree not to write 2 pages of crap later on. Agreed?
Nope. "Demand and Supply" is not the ONLY factor , it is one of the factors.
End Equation is "0.28X0.07" - Country limit + "Demand and Supply" + FIFO + Cycle for Unused ones + interim memos/rules declared by USCIS
We should not forget FIFO process conviniently. Taking your example, EB1 does not have supply and so it is current and there you are right. Where as both EB2 and EB3 have heavy supply. USCIS has to cover 7% first and follow FIFO rule. EB2-1999 should be processed first with comparision to EB2 -2002 and that is FIFO( I hope you would not argue on this at least
bharatpremi
Registered Users (C)
Why do you think this debate is for some "Crown"? And who authorized you to crown somebody? If you feel irritated for whatsoever reason (Perhaps EB2 tagged waiting for your window get opened?) do not read. Generally if I feel that some article or opinion is crap, I do not read it further from the point at where I got convinced about the quality of that opinion. And logically if it is crap as you mentioned then you must be the biggest idiot to waste your time reading crap. If I feel something is crap I would just feel that by reading one or 2 lines and would not read ahead. And you have to read all "Those 2 pages" to decide that this is crap then you must really be an idiot and you would not undrstand this debate at all.
It is not that I wish this happen to EB2 but it is all about what USCIS will do to EB2 in coming months and ofcourse to EB3 as well.
Sanity should be maintained here and particularly perm_lc and I are debating this so if you have real opinions you also please join in this debate with real arguments rather than vomiting waste.
Perhaps I may be wrong or perm_lc may be wrong or we both may be wrong but when time will come, we will accept that without any prejudice.Why do you want to decide that now?