JULY 15 Re-draw Maybe Cancelled!!!!
- Thread starter win dv
- Start date
ToomCraigy
Banned
Haha, you suck. Hail to uncle Craig!1111oneone
originallly posted by ranger78
Fundamentally, there is a huge hole in State Department’s explanation. They are claiming that
a) some in-house programmer approached them saying that he wanted to improve an algorithm that worked perfectly fine in all previous years, but otherwise there was no particular reason to do it;
b) they did not notice the mistake until after they posted the results (ie 6 months after the draw)
c) most interestingly, according to AP, nobody was disciplined.
So, do they really want me to believe that it’s OK to make the staff sift through 100,000 selected candidates (and pay them salary for 6 months), based on incorrectly selected data? I mean, we are all humans, and we can make errors, but what is completely unacceptable is that there was no quality control performed, even after the change of algorithm.
This check would have taken them just a couple of minutes, using the most basic of statistical packages (heck, one can do it in Excel). All that is required is to build a simple histogram by the selection date, and any pattern would have been obvious (especially a pattern where 90% were selected during the first 2 days). Yet this was not done, and “nobody was disciplined”. Even putting aside the fate of 22,000 foreigners (American taxpayers don’t care about them), what about the monumental waste of resources? Why is nobody paying for this negligence?
I have a simple theory explaining this. The State Department knew all along about the algorithm (first, randomly select 2 days, then select the majority of applicants from those 2 days) . They were fine with it all along. Perhaps the algorithm was also used in previous years, too (hence the rumors there were similar patterns in the past). What was different this year is that the results were announced on the first day, and quite a few naive winners shared this information on internet forums. In turn, some unscrupulous people who noticed this pattern started to bombard the Department with threats of suing them for doing a non-random lottery. The Department caved in, and the 22000 were made the scapegoats.
Fundamentally, there is a huge hole in State Department’s explanation. They are claiming that
a) some in-house programmer approached them saying that he wanted to improve an algorithm that worked perfectly fine in all previous years, but otherwise there was no particular reason to do it;
b) they did not notice the mistake until after they posted the results (ie 6 months after the draw)
c) most interestingly, according to AP, nobody was disciplined.
So, do they really want me to believe that it’s OK to make the staff sift through 100,000 selected candidates (and pay them salary for 6 months), based on incorrectly selected data? I mean, we are all humans, and we can make errors, but what is completely unacceptable is that there was no quality control performed, even after the change of algorithm.
This check would have taken them just a couple of minutes, using the most basic of statistical packages (heck, one can do it in Excel). All that is required is to build a simple histogram by the selection date, and any pattern would have been obvious (especially a pattern where 90% were selected during the first 2 days). Yet this was not done, and “nobody was disciplined”. Even putting aside the fate of 22,000 foreigners (American taxpayers don’t care about them), what about the monumental waste of resources? Why is nobody paying for this negligence?
I have a simple theory explaining this. The State Department knew all along about the algorithm (first, randomly select 2 days, then select the majority of applicants from those 2 days) . They were fine with it all along. Perhaps the algorithm was also used in previous years, too (hence the rumors there were similar patterns in the past). What was different this year is that the results were announced on the first day, and quite a few naive winners shared this information on internet forums. In turn, some unscrupulous people who noticed this pattern started to bombard the Department with threats of suing them for doing a non-random lottery. The Department caved in, and the 22000 were made the scapegoats.
I suck because we may have posted the information at the same time?
ToomCraigy
Banned
Yes and this too.
ToomCraigy
Banned
Per DOS official's statement, only 22 000 [now void] winners have checked their status and got official confirmation before the website was shut down.
Does it mean that at LEAST 78% (this could be wrong) of applicants are naive of the whole DV thing? In other words, no one of them checked the status even after 2 weeks... probably first time applicants?... who knows!!!
ToomCraigy
Banned
Nope. 22 000 checked between May 1st - 6th and got their NL1 (winning notification letter). We don't know the total amount of participants who checked the status, definitely more than 22K.
One more thing, if this hypothesis is true, then the whole DOS "randomeness" theory is biased towards first-time applicants.. my 2 cents..
Yes, I'm only talking about 100,000 ex-winners... not the 14.3469834 million applicants
IF there is a negociation then that smell good news for the 22k & bad news for thoses who wish them failure forgeting that lawsuit = no july 15
No update from Mr. White yet? I'm sure there's been a sort of negotiation going between him, DOS and OIG! Oh well, three weeks to go
Last edited by a moderator:
ToomCraigy
Banned
Ah, conspiracy... You must be one of THEM!
Nah Jayo2k, I don't smell any good news for the ex 22k 1st May winners! Rather I smell that DOS and OIG has brought Mr. White to terms of what really went wrong with the 1st may result which they claimed it was "Computer glitch". Common guys, u guys should apply ur common sense here! The error was human manipulation but thank God for the world of technology that brought everything to light when those that won started stating the dates they entered for the lottery and so on, because I'm sure the person behind that mistake thought it would go unnoticed, well it would ve if it were still to be in the era where KCC mailed out notification letters!
U guys remember the e-mails DOS sent out right? Some of these ex 22k 1st May winners didn't receive these e-mails, thus their entries weren't qualified and NO, those who didn't receive it aint all Hotmail users! Don't be suprised to hear that not all the 14 million entrants were included in the first draw that resulted to that 1st May result. I
There was no update from Mr. White today? Almighty Friday for that matter? Don't u all smell a fish? I'm sure he's looking for the best way to relate these latest development to his clients (ex 22k 1st winners) because it would really hurt their feelings :-((( Hahaha...speculations at its BEST! But there's an atom of truth in what I'm saying thou!
And come to think of it, Mr. White has not updated his blog yet whether the lawsuit has been approved as a class-action lawsuit or not! He only talked abot a new FB page that has been opened to support their course and how someone asked him how he managed to get plantiffs from 20 differnt Countries! Seriously, what I stated above is what has happened! If u guys could remember, I was the first person on this forum who asked when the new result for the re-draw of the lottery will be published again when DOS website was down before they even openly said there will be a re-draw! So don't just think I'm only speculating. But anyways, I wish everyone luck come July 15!
Last edited by a moderator:
Nah Jayo2k, I don't smell any good news for the ex 22k 1st May winners! Rather I smell that DOS and OIG has brought Mr. White to terms of what really went wrong with the 1st may result which they claimed it was "Computer glitch". Common guys, u guys should apply ur common sense here! The error was human manipulation but thank God for the world of technology that brought everything to light when those that won started stating the dates they entered for the lottery and so on, because I'm sure the person behind that mistake thought it would go unnoticed, well it would ve if it were still to be in the era where KCC mailed out notification letters!
U guys remember the e-mails DOS sent out right? Some of these ex 22k 1st May winners didn't receive these e-mails, thus their entries weren't qualified and NO, those who didn't receive it aint all Hotmail users! Don't be suprised to hear that not all the 14 million entrants were included in the first draw that resulted to that 1st May result. I
There was no update from Mr. White today? Almighty Friday for that matter? Don't u all smell a fish? I'm sure he's looking for the best way to relate these latest development to his clients (ex 22k 1st winners) because it would really hurt their feelings :-((( Hahaha...speculations at its BEST! But there's an atom of truth in what I'm saying thou!
And come to think of it, Mr. White has not updated his blog yet whether the lawsuit has been approved as a class-action lawsuit or not! He only talked abot a new FB page that has been opened to support their course and how someone asked him how he managed to get plantiffs from 20 differnt Countries! Seriously, what I stated above is what has happened! If u guys could remember, I was the first person on this forum who asked when the new result for the re-draw of the lottery will be published again when DOS website was down before they even openly said there will be a re-draw! So don't just think I'm only speculating. But anyways, I wish everyone luck come July 15!
Last edited by a moderator:
Dubbies l can see you are trying to cover up for Dos.Even a kid would have noticed the error.They should have tabelled the results before posting.There is no room for giving error results.Imagine you taking a pill dispatched in error by pharmaceutical company or buying a faulty car.Ooops ,sorry you are dead.Those will be the results.
People spent time , money in taking pics filling forms and postage fees.
Infact the eX 22 K Should be reinstated because of these facts let alone the errors.
But as we all know they an INCOMPETENT BUNCH.No one expects them to do the right thing anyway.....
People spent time , money in taking pics filling forms and postage fees.
Infact the eX 22 K Should be reinstated because of these facts let alone the errors.
But as we all know they an INCOMPETENT BUNCH.No one expects them to do the right thing anyway.....
Dubbies, I rubber stamped your write up. Well said...................
@ jayo2k: We didn’t wish anybody failure. We r 1 family & by Gods grace, we shall be favoured. Only rouse by d unequal opportunity. DOS solely took its decision to rescind d result without any external interference. And as you rightly said in ur previous post, its all about personal interest.
By d special grace of God, NEXT 3 FRIDAY(S) will come to pass without any Litigation whatsoever. Negotiation MIGHT be underway 4D DV 22k positively, but there should be no stalemate on the proposed July 15th. I hope Dv 22k will be somewhat favoured by having 50% of d 22k among the new 100 selectees + necessary backup.
Gud luck everyone!!!!!!!!!!
Last edited by a moderator:
Well .........Well...........Well.................Speculation at its best!!! Time is not on DV 22k Tears side & could c ‘em dominating all thread with optimism...yea, its good 2b hopeful...But!!!!!
3 MIGHTY Fridays (1, 8 & 15th) will cum2pass without any proceedings. Mind u, DOS as a governmental immigration dept will also have some of d best immigration attorneys in its convoy that are working round d clock to ‘counter-attack’ Mr. Whites action that may override their interest.
Or does anyone deems it fit maybe the DOS has already foresaw a court case (as an immigration dept) & have prove smarter by getting an injunction from a competent law court in advance against any external legal move that may jeopardise the DV lottery and/or its time-frame while allowing normal court session proceeds? Ooo they would av announce????? But d protocol guiding govt official just don’t allow them come public & announce anything at will especially sensitive issue...
Ur Mr. White could sue DOS for anything but not 2d extent of stalemating July 15th or compulsory restating 22k.. he lacks d impudence 2even request such.
At its peak, ‘jayo2k’ broke its acclaim neutrality on whose side it is & have finally join its DV 22,000 Tears... May b becos u think hardly does luck struck twice but hu knoz !!!
Gud luck everyone come July 15th while hoping d mainstream of DV22k get selected again miraculously among WE, 100k new selectees.
3 MIGHTY Fridays (1, 8 & 15th) will cum2pass without any proceedings. Mind u, DOS as a governmental immigration dept will also have some of d best immigration attorneys in its convoy that are working round d clock to ‘counter-attack’ Mr. Whites action that may override their interest.
Or does anyone deems it fit maybe the DOS has already foresaw a court case (as an immigration dept) & have prove smarter by getting an injunction from a competent law court in advance against any external legal move that may jeopardise the DV lottery and/or its time-frame while allowing normal court session proceeds? Ooo they would av announce????? But d protocol guiding govt official just don’t allow them come public & announce anything at will especially sensitive issue...
Ur Mr. White could sue DOS for anything but not 2d extent of stalemating July 15th or compulsory restating 22k.. he lacks d impudence 2even request such.
At its peak, ‘jayo2k’ broke its acclaim neutrality on whose side it is & have finally join its DV 22,000 Tears... May b becos u think hardly does luck struck twice but hu knoz
!!! Gud luck everyone come July 15th while hoping d mainstream of DV22k get selected again miraculously among WE, 100k new selectees.
At its peak, ‘jayo2k’ broke its acclaim neutrality on whose side it is & have finally join its DV 22,000 Tears... May b becos u think hardly does luck struck twice but hu knoz
Kinda noticed that too .. Probably because he was one of "them" from the start..and now he thinks 22k have a shot, even though just a while ago he was saying they don't stand a chance.