For those that like to argue about statistics...
- Thread starter Britsimon
- Start date
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
0Simon why not if the quota limit 7% so automaticly cameroun for ex:
Won't get over 3500 visa so all the selectees above 3500 will jumb unless
If there is hole and give ups and so !? So ameer makes a point ?
Won't get over 3500 visa so all the selectees above 3500 will jumb unless
If there is hole and give ups and so !? So ameer makes a point ?
ameer
Member
the real number is 3850.
IN Table VII,Immigrant Number Use for Visa Issuances and Adjustments of Status in the Diversity Immigrant we found Egypt in 2005 issued 3511 visa ,in 2006 issued 3538 and in 2009 issued 3651.
Ethiopia in 2003 issued 3784 visa,in 2004 issued 3659 , in 2009 issued 3690 and in 2011 issued 3536.
Thanks
I believe both Simon and Ameer are right. All these countries will for sure not fill their 7% quota (or 3500, 3850 or something in between). Tthat would be odd that all the selectees from these 13 countries will send their forms to KCC. But Ameer makes a good point that amogst the 140.6k selectees, there are only 123k that mathematically are really in the run. That does not mean that all 123k selectees will have a visa though.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Because their formula does not take into account that 2012 was a bad example to use, so they have assumed the response and success rate of 2014 will be similar to 2012. Neither the response nor interview success rate have anything to do with the new software, so there is nothing to suggest that this year will not follow the normal rates as shown in 2011 2013 etc.
Your whole misunderstanding can be demonstrated using Arica region. AF have 21,000 of the 45,000 visas shown in the 2013 CEAC data so it is reasonable to assume they will have received at least 23,000 out of 52,000 selectees. You calculations say that is impossible, but it happened, and moreover, it is NORMAL. 2011 showed AF getting 24,000 visas from 51,000 selectees. So, AF tends to receive around 24,000 visas (your numbers don't allow for that) and generally need around 50k selectees to reach that level. This year they have 62,000 selectees - so AF is over subscribed, that is for sure, but based on my calculations I think they need around 29 or 30k visas and can only get 23/24. I know you don't think they will even get as many as 23k, but that is because your numbers tell you the demand is only about 17/18 (because they only took 13k in 2012) and you have relented to pressure to increase that to 20k, but you don't really agree with even that.
ameer
Member
You get my point.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
hes smart thats why he made this thread for us to argue the stats lolI thought you were a smart man ... Unfortunately I was wrong.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
100% agreed
Britsimon
Super Moderator
No, Ameer is making a point that cannot be correct. My point is that every one of the people in Cameroon (for example) are in the running. In 2011 they had 3674 selectees and only got 1706 visas. Ghana had 6002 selectees and only got 2460 visas. See the point, you cannot ignore the selectees above 3500 for any given country.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
obviously not all the first ones will make the 7% succes quota. so your approach is more realistic. but mathematicly speaking
the 123000 selettes runing, makes a virtual sens.....
Hi everyone,
I think that Simon understand very well the DV Process and keep explaining as possible as he can. To understand his point about Ameer numbers (witch are partially true), let's take Egypt and Nigeria example for 2013, they got resp 5,015 and 6,218 selectee (winner) and by the end of the year All Africa get Current.
That means all egyptian and nigerian selectess had a chance to persue their case (no disqualification). but reality is some choose to not persue, some got their visa rejected and some didn't even knew they won the lottery (believe me that exist).
What we are arguing here is about the evolution of the Cut-OFF and for that we all can make predictions and I am with simon numbers because I also believe that 2012 is an exception with the redraw (software bug).
Thanks
I think that Simon understand very well the DV Process and keep explaining as possible as he can. To understand his point about Ameer numbers (witch are partially true), let's take Egypt and Nigeria example for 2013, they got resp 5,015 and 6,218 selectee (winner) and by the end of the year All Africa get Current.
That means all egyptian and nigerian selectess had a chance to persue their case (no disqualification). but reality is some choose to not persue, some got their visa rejected and some didn't even knew they won the lottery (believe me that exist).
What we are arguing here is about the evolution of the Cut-OFF and for that we all can make predictions and I am with simon numbers because I also believe that 2012 is an exception with the redraw (software bug).
Thanks
ameer
Member
we cannot ignore the selectees above 3850 , but we have to consider that No one country can receive more than seven percent of the available diversity visas in any one year.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
That less than 140,000 have a chance is correct, but NOT for the reason that Ameer is describing, because he is saying people from various countries will be disqualified because of their position within their country when that is absolutely not the case.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Correct, but you are confusing things by applying the 7% limit to the selectees when in fact it applies to visas issued.
Oh and by the way, I'm glad you have not taken offence from my comments - I don't mean to demean the you or the effort you put into your post.
Last edited by a moderator:
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
so at end and in case the limit 7% will be applied on those oversuscribe countries.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
That is also an excellent point to make - the fact that all countries were current shows no cutoff was applied to the selectees, although we know Iran had a last minute cutoff through hitting the 7% visas issued.
Well, I believe we all say the same thing.
Ameer point is that you cannot grant visas to all 140k selectees. Well, that makes sense anyway when there are only +/- 50k visas available. His point is there are mathemetically only 123k selectees in the run. But that does not mean that only 123k can send their forms to KCC. All 140k selectees can send their forms (that's why we call them selectees...). Some will never bother pursuing their application, some won't even know they are selected. It may also very well be that the 140600th selectee gets a visa, and mr or mrs EU0001/AF00001/AS0001/Oc00001 will never get a visa
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
i agree in cameroun for ex, all the 6000 might reach an interview and may be the succes wont even reach 100 visa because of a lot of dramatic failures, but in other side if succes strikes in cameroun 7% quota will fall am i right?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
If a country hits the 7% limit then remaining selectees from that country would find their interviews would be cancelled or if they have not been scheduled yet they would never be scheduled. However, during the selection process a number of countries have an artificicial limit of around 6000 selectees imposed. There are several countries around the 6k mark, but none at for example the 7k mark or above. basically the selection process applies a limit that as Raevsky has previously pointed out is somewhat questionable from a legal point of view (since it cannot be justified by the 7% or any other limit). However, it does mean we are not swamped with selectees from Nigeria for example. Having said that, even among these 6k countries, there are few that will get close to the 7% limit because of response/failure rates.