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For those that like to argue about statistics...

britsimon said:
If a country hits the 7% limit then remaining selectees from that country would find their interviews would be cancelled or if they have not been scheduled yet they would never be scheduled. However, during the selection process a number of countries have an artificicial limit of around 6000 selectees imposed. There are several countries around the 6k mark, but none at for example the 7k mark or above. basically the selection process applies a limit that as Raevsky has previously pointed out is somewhat questionable from a legal point of view (since it cannot be justified by the 7% or any other limit). However, it does mean we are not swamped with selectees from Nigeria for example. Having said that, even among these 6k countries, there are few that will get close to the 7% limit because of response/failure rates.
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That means you agree 100% of my point.
I just mentioned it an Statistical number, any you mentioned it as above.
Thanks
 
House409 said:
Well, I believe we all say the same thing.

Ameer point is that you cannot grant visas to all 140k selectees. Well, that makes sense anyway when there are only +/- 50k visas available. His point is there are mathemetically only 123k selectees in the run. But that does not mean that only 123k can send their forms to KCC. All 140k selectees can send their forms (that's why we call them selectees...). Some will never bother pursuing their application, some won't even know they are selected. It may also very well be that the 140600th selectee gets a visa, and mr or mrs EU0001/AF00001/AS0001/Oc00001 will never get a visa
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Agree,

And we will understand more the process by exchanging thoughts and ideas
 
if we consider the 7% limit on each coutry like ameer states (and thanks for your post btw) we will end up for sure
with 123xxx number of real selectees runing for a visa, like simon mention its true when iran last year hit its limit all the intrviews,outstanding APs, were cancelled...
 
Ameer said:
That means you agree 100% of my point.
I just mentioned it an Statistical number, any you mentioned it as above.
Thanks
Click to expand...

NO, it is a different point entirely! You were saying that in some countries large numbers of selectees will not get an interview because they will have exceeded the 7% limit. . I am saying that in most of those countries ALL selectees will be able to get an interview and almost NO countries will hit the 7% limit. The impact of your explanation is to give the impression that selectees in some countries have no chance mathmatically which is disproven by a number of 6k countries in past lotteries.

The other point that we do agree on is that the global limit will hit and that not all the 140k selectees will be interviewed for THAT reason.
 
vladek15425 said:
if we consider the 7% limit on each coutry like ameer states (and thanks for your post btw) we will end up for sure
with 123xxx number of real selectees runing for a visa, like simon mention its true when iran last year hit its limit all the intrviews,outstanding APs, were cancelled...
Click to expand...

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

If I were a football referee I would be blowing my bloody whistle!
 
britsimon said:
NO, it is a different point entirely! You were saying that in some countries large numbers of selectees will not get an interview because they will have exceeded the 7% limit. . I am saying that in most of those countries ALL selectees will be able to get an interview and almost NO countries will hit the 7% limit. The impact of your explanation is to give the impression that selectees in some countries have no chance mathmatically which is disproven by a number of 6k countries in past lotteries.

The other point that we do agree on is that the global limit will hit and that not all the 140k selectees will be interviewed for THAT reason.
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Ok, what do you say if all selsctees of the countries of large numbers return forms to KCC?
as your example what will happen if the all 6043 of Nigeria DV2014 selcetees return back forms to KCC this year?
 
ok simon
do u agree that we have to aply the 7% limit on the oversuscribed coutries ? because its a reality and indeed it brings up the 140660 to 123060 ?
 
Sloner said:
Vladek, do not invent.
Europa - 50000 and above.
Uzbekistan - current.
Africa - 100000 and above.
Asia - 17000 and above.
Oceania - current.
SA- current
NA - current.
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exactly sloner my point if eu 50000 and above than it will hit the current and all the eu cns will get an interview . same for af
because from eu50000 and "above" af 100000 and "above" there is hardly real cases inthere (big huge holes).
so at end all will go current ACCORDING TO YOU
 
Ameer said:
Ok, what do you say if all selsctees of the countries of large numbers return forms to KCC?
as your example what will happen if the all 6043 of Nigeria DV2014 selcetees return back forms to KCC this year?
Click to expand...

Well that would NEVER happen (never has in the past and never will in the future), but let's say by some miracle it did happen. Many of the 6043 would fail not turn up for the ineterviews and many would fail the interviews. For instance in 2013 among the CEAC data there were 35k AF region family members available for interview and of those 21k got visas the remainder (13k) either didn't show up for interview or got denied.

By the way, the selectees number you quote include family members already.
 
vladek15425 said:
ok simon
do u agree that we have to aply the 7% limit on the oversuscribed coutries ? because its a reality and indeed it brings up the 140660 to 123060 ?
Click to expand...

No. we should not. Most of those countries are not going to come close to the 7% limit even if there were 200000 visas available.
 
britsimon said:
If a country hits the 7% limit then remaining selectees from that country would find their interviews would be cancelled or if they have not been scheduled yet they would never be scheduled. However, during the selection process a number of countries have an artificicial limit of around 6000 selectees imposed. There are several countries around the 6k mark, but none at for example the 7k mark or above. basically the selection process applies a limit that as Raevsky has previously pointed out is somewhat questionable from a legal point of view (since it cannot be justified by the 7% or any other limit). However, it does mean we are not swamped with selectees from Nigeria for example. Having said that, even among these 6k countries, there are few that will get close to the 7% limit because of response/failure rates.
Click to expand...

My understanding is that all principal applicants get a CN number during the random selection. Then, DOS rejects invalid, fraudulent or bogus entries, creating holes in the sequence. DOS sets afterwards the number of selectees, by looking at rejection rates of the last stats (ie DV12 for the DV14 selection according to Simon), and by doing so sets the max CN numbers to be registered and invited to send their forms to KCC.

If the theory about the 6k selectees max per country is true, that would mean that DOS does not notify high CN numbers for those countries.

Does that mean the frequency of holes is higher when reaching high CN numbers??? That would be the only logical explanation for the much higher registrered CN numbers compared to the increased selectee count. For instance, EU gets winning CN up to 53k which is 75% more than the mid 30k of last year, while the number of selectees is 35% more than last year (46k instead of 34k)
 
britsimon said:
Well that would NEVER happen (never has in the past and never will in the future), but let's say by some miracle it did happen. Many of the 6043 would fail not turn up for the ineterviews and many would fail the interviews. For instance in 2013 among the CEAC data there were 35k AF region family members available for interview and of those 21k got visas the remainder (13k) either didn't show up for interview or got denied.

By the way, the selectees number you quote include family members already.
Click to expand...

it does not matter in my understading if nigeria selectees get or not get anterview because the fact is the limit is uncrossable
if they all respond there will be in anyway only 7% winners out of the 6043 selectees and thats a fact !
 
britsimon said:
Well that would NEVER happen (never has in the past and never will in the future), but let's say by some miracle it did happen. Many of the 6043 would fail not turn up for the ineterviews and many would fail the interviews. For instance in 2013 among the CEAC data there were 35k AF region family members available for interview and of those 21k got visas the remainder (13k) either didn't show up for interview or got denied.


By the way, the selectees number you quote include family members already.
Click to expand...

I agree never happened in the past,but why would never happen in the future!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
also when i disqualified some selectees include family members disqualified
 
britsimon said:
No. we should not. Most of those countries are not going to come close to the 7% limit even if there were 200000 visas available.
Click to expand...
agreed
let me stick to nigeria exmple, they might probably not hit the limit because of lot of failures ok
BUt the fact is happens or not, we have to disqualify 7 % from the 6000 selectees they have in anyway...
 
Eucn said:
Most important is to locate in a really good school district if you have or plan to have kids. With condos it's important to look out for solvency of the association future special assessments percentage of renters vs owners etc. with homes look out for fold zones as you will bed hit hard on the insurance. Also check for Chinese dry walls in condos built from 2005.

Get a mortgage broker used to working with foreign nationals and don't expect to get a mortgage at all or that sellers are willing to wait for it. Cash dominates the below 300k market.
Click to expand...

britsimon said:
[...] I am aware of the Chinese drywall issues and condo stability. I bought some condos in 2009/2010 where the HOAs were having exactly those sort of problems (paying cash obviously) and now the HOAs are sorted out and stable so the values have doubled. ...
Click to expand...


Without wanting to hijack the intention and purpose of the thread, but I'd appreciate some input into what you both mentioned regarding the above highlighted points (perhaps I should open a new thread..).

-I assume HOA means home owners association...that is the group of owners of condos in one building or complex, right?

-What about solvency? What are "Future special assessments"?

-Did you mean "flood zones" rather than "fold zones" ... otherwise I have no idea what that means.

-I guess looking at the renters vs. owners ratio is something natural to do...from past experience in AUS, I can confirm that unfortunately a high proportion of renters in a complex or neighborhood increases the chances for nuisances of all kind.

-What about Chinese drywalls? Are we talking internal plasterboards? Or external, structural material of low quality?
EDIT: Just found out what the issue is: Toxic ([FONT=verdana, geneva, lucida, lucida grande, arial, helvetica, sans-serif]sulfur at unacceptable levels) in cheap Chinese imported plasterboards...ohh, that reminds me of formaldehyde and asbestos containing building materials and whole generations of properties contaminated).
[/FONT]
-Re: School district ... it doesn't really matter for us, at all...unless we want to consider future sale prospects. We don't have kids and will never have any (it was not meant to be). But the school district thing brings me to my last question:

-Is it true that your ongoing costs for owning a property in the US is determined by what county and even what school district it is located in? I am still pretty much a newbie when it comes to these questions...I have only read somewhere that you even pay some taxes to your county and often even your school district, just for living inside those boundaries...apart from state taxes (if applicable) and federal taxes. When we were buying things in FL on our last trip, it was the first time we realized that VAT was different from one shop to another across the road...probably the border between the two areas. The bad thing was that the VAT was not even displayed on the shelf..so you never know the final price until you pay for it at the cashier. It didn't really bother us as we were only there on vacation but if you live there and want to compare deals, it can be pretty annoying.
 
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lets put it this way
if nigeria doesnt hit the limit so the disqualified (2193) is already included right?
now if nigeria reaches 3500 succes from the first candidates the limit 7% will fall on it right?
conculsion they will be in anyway (2193) disqualified
 
House409 said:
My understanding is that all principal applicants get a CN number during the random selection. Then, DOS rejects invalid, fraudulent or bogus entries, creating holes in the sequence. DOS sets afterwards the number of selectees, by looking at rejection rates of the last stats (ie DV12 for the DV14 selection according to Simon), and by doing so sets the max CN numbers to be registered and invited to send their forms to KCC.

If the theory about the 6k selectees max per country is true, that would mean that DOS does not notify high CN numbers for those countries.

Does that mean the frequency of holes is higher when reaching high CN numbers??? That would be the only logical explanation for the much higher registrered CN numbers compared to the increased selectee count. For instance, EU gets winning CN up to 53k which is 75% more than the mid 30k of last year, while the number of selectees is 35% more than last year (46k instead of 34k)
Click to expand...

Someone discussed this the other day. I pointed out that the numbers of entries for some countries was HUGE. Nigeria for instance in 2013 had 2 million entries (including family) out of the global total entries of 12 million. One sixth of all the people participating in the lottery from one country!!! So, the question of whether they cut those countries off is very clear - they do.

Now then I was thinking (like you) that this would mean huge holes but actually someone explained that the draw could be conducted a different way and that would mean that the 6k countries don't create a lot of holes (because at some point in the draw they just stop taking the entries from those countries out of the hat).
 
OnTheGo said:
Without wanting to hijack the intention and purpose of the thread, but I'd appreciate some input into what you both mentioned regarding the above highlighted points (perhaps I should open a new thread..).

-I assume HOA means home owners association...that is the group of owners of condos in one building or complex, right?

-What about solvency? What are "Future special assessments"?

-Did you mean "flood zones" rather than "fold zones" ... otherwise I have no idea what that means.

-I guess looking at the renters vs. owners ratio is something natural to do...from past experience in AUS, I can confirm that unfortunately a high proportion of renters in a complex or neighborhood increases the chances for nuisances of all kind.

-What about Chinese drywalls? Are we talking internal plasterboards? Or external, structural material of low quality?
EDIT: Just found out what the issue is: Toxic ([FONT=verdana, geneva, lucida, lucida grande, arial, helvetica, sans-serif]sulfur at unacceptable levels) in cheap Chinese imported plasterboards...ohh, that reminds me of formaldehyde and asbestos containing building materials and whole generations of properties contaminated).
[/FONT]
-Re: School district ... it doesn't really matter for us, at all...unless we want to consider future sale prospects. We don't have kids and will never have any (it was not meant to be). But the school district thing brings me to my last question:

-Is it true that your ongoing costs for owning a property in the US is determined by what county and even what school district it is located in? I am still pretty much a newbie when it comes to these questions...I have only read somewhere that you even pay some taxes to your county and often even your school district, just for living inside those boundaries...apart from state taxes (if applicable) and federal taxes. When we were buying things in FL on our last trip, it was the first time we realized that VAT was different from one shop to another across the road...probably the border between the two areas. The bad thing was that the VAT was not even displayed on the shelf..so you never know the final price until you pay for it at the cashier. It didn't really bother us as we were only there on vacation but if you live there and want to compare deals, it can be pretty annoying.
Click to expand...

HOA yes home owners association and yes typically condos and complexes with shared resources (like a community pool).

Special assessments could happen if an HOA has underfunded their savings allocations for big bills. So if replacing the roof of a condo building costs $100k and the roof is designed to last 20 years they should save $5k a year toward the replacement of the roof. If they don't do that you can find that they need to raise funds for an unbudgeted bill and that leads to a special assessment.

I'm sure he meant flood zones.

Renters vs owners ratio is important in US too - it can affect the ability to get a mortgage.

On properties you pay property taxes which are paid to a centralized collector for the county. The tax you pay has various elements so a locality tax could be included in that. However, payroll taxes also have various levels federal, state, county, even town so often local services are paid through that and as you say, the sales tax (which is state and county level) covers purchases.
 
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