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For those that like to argue about statistics...

All right, what about the ''CAPACITY'' of the embassies to process the interviews !? Like NA DV2013 only 4 selectees i think for the whole region and they only processed 3 interviews during 11 months !!!!
Can any one elaborate on this matter ?
 
vladek15425 said:
All right, what about the ''CAPACITY'' of the embassies to process the interviews !? Like NA DV2013 only 4 selectees i think for the whole region and they only processed 3 interviews during 11 months !!!!
Can any one elaborate on this matter ?
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NA only has a handful of selectees so that isn't a capacity issue.

In other regions they can certainly process more DV interviews if needed - for example 10 or 20 percent more interviews would be a huge increase but would not be very many extra per embassy. However if one region needs to do double the interviews (like OC) then capacity (alongside other existing work) could be a limitation.
 
Has there been a case where by some selectees with high case numbers never got appointment letter due to so called CUT OFF?
 
britsimon said:
NA only has a handful of selectees so that isn't a capacity issue.

In other regions they can certainly process more DV interviews if needed - for example 10 or 20 percent more interviews would be a huge increase but would not be very many extra per embassy. However if one region needs to do double the interviews (like OC) then capacity (alongside other existing work) could be a limitation.
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Thanks simon thats exactly my point they can easiely increase the amount of the scheduling, the thing is they wanna stratch onto 12 months. The best prove is NA as we can see.
They could really expediate the whole amount of the selectees within 6 months time IMO....
 
vladek15425 said:
Thanks simon thats exactly my point they can easiely increase the amount of the scheduling, the thing is they wanna stratch onto 12 months. The best prove is NA as we can see.
They could really expediate the whole amount of the selectees within 6 months time IMO....
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I think that would be possible in some regions, but not all. Also, I believe it is Kayend who points out that there is a rule that says they cannot issue more than 10% of the otal visas in any one given month. I'm not sure where that rule is described, but it has been mentioned several times.
 
britsimon said:
I think that would be possible in some regions, but not all. Also, I believe it is Kayend who points out that there is a rule that says they cannot issue more than 10% of the otal visas in any one given month. I'm not sure where that rule is described, but it has been mentioned several times.
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There must be a rule like you say
That regulates the cut off ! i missed that point of kayend somewhere...
 
So what were sloners final predictions? Wasnt he saying that everywhere but OC would turn current or something like that?
 
britsimon said:
When DV2014 was planned, DV2012 would have been the last results. Now if you look at my numbers linked in the very first post you will see that I calculated rough demand for visas based on DV2012 response/success rates would be 49500 visas. In other words if you did use 2012 as a template it would tell you to draw 140,000 selectees to fill the quota. Honestly, I think that is exactly what they did, not based on stupidity, but based on a rule/procedure that could not have imagined a screw up like 2012.
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Simon , there is one more aspect we can't ignore
listen , if they took results of 2012 to estimate how many winners they need for DV14, why they didn't increase winners with same proportion as they had shortage in 2102.
OK , if we agree that Africa should have 24K visas (in dv2012 got 13K) and EU 16K visas (in Dv2012 got 13K) , then they should increase
Africa at 24/13= 84% but they increased just at 24% , and EU 16/13=23% but they had increased EU at 50% ....(2012-31K and 2014-46,6K) and i guess same disproportion we can see with all regions

am i passed my meanings clear enough?
 
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rogers.com said:
Has there been a case where by some selectees with high case numbers never got appointment letter due to so called CUT OFF?
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Yes. It has happened for individual countries like Iran and Bangladesh in the past few years, and in the early/mid 2000s there were a number of years where regions got cut off at FY end including at least one year when not a single region was "current" at year end. I don't have the data to hand but they are available.
 
Hiya, well done with the dedicated thread for statistical ramblings :)

Without having to read through 400 posts...has anything changed in your opinion on our estimations for an August interview, CN being EU35xxx ?

I'm picking our new house in Florida already, by flipping through realtor's listings every now and then :D
 
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rocky72 said:
Simon , there is one more aspect we can't ignore
listen , if they took results of 2012 to estimate how many winners they need for DV14, why they didn't increase winners with same proportion as they had shortage in 2102.
OK , if we agree that Africa should have 24K visas (in dv2012 got 13K) and EU 16K visas (in Dv2012 got 13K) , then they should increase
Africa at 24/13= 84% but they increased just at 24% , and EU 16/13=23% but they had increased EU at 50% ....(2012-31K and 2014-46,6K) and i guess same disproportion we can see with all regions

am i passed my meanings clear enough?
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I understand what you're asking, but here is what I think happened. I think there are two "principles" coming in to play at the same time. One thing they need to do is decide how many selectees they need (globally) and then secondly how to split those up according to the regional quotas. The regional quota is decided by a formula that has been discussed further up in this thread - it is published and verifiable. However, what I am suggesting is that the global number of selectees is calculated based on the last completed lottery.

In 2012 they had almost exactly 100000 selectees and they issued 34460 visas. To a moron (or a stupid formula) it would seem that you only get a 35% success rate (i.e. selectee to visas issued) and if you want to issue 50000 visas you need just over 140,000 visas to do it.

Once they have the global selectee target I think they then apply the regional split formula. The best evidence I have for that is the selectee counts in 2012 (with the famous new software). The total between the 5 regions (ignoring NA) was 100006 selectees and the regional numbers were almost exactly round numbers (i.e. 50000, 31001, 15002, 2001, 2002) which is exactly what happens when you are trying to get to the round numbers but with the realisation that the selectees come along with family members so you are on 30999 for EU, you take one more to hit the 31000 target and that selectee has a wife so you end up at 31001. The 100k was a bit too obvious so my guess is that the new software was given that number as a starting point and they planned to use that as history for future draws as I have described.

Just my thoughts - maybe it's right, maybe not. Raevsky describes it as the Sloner axiom, in honour of the great thinker.
 
OnTheGo said:
Hiya, well done with the dedicated thread for statistical ramblings :)

Without having to read through 400 posts...has anything changed in your opinion on our estimations for an August interview, CN being EU35xxx ?

I'm picking our new house in Florida already, by flipping through realtor's listings every now and then :D
Click to expand...

Still about right - I personally think (hope really) that your number will be July....
 
britsimon said:
Still about right - I personally think (hope really) that your number will be July....
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Thanks, that would be awesome. I wonder if March cut offs for EU will be in the 22k or 23k range...the lovely KCC staff might put pedal to the metal...lol. BTW..are you going to FL or CA on your H1B visa? I think it was one or the other..
 
OnTheGo said:
Thanks, that would be awesome. I wonder if March cut offs for EU will be in the 22k or 23k range...the lovely KCC staff might put pedal to the metal...lol. BTW..are you going to FL or CA on your H1B visa? I think it was one or the other..
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I really am expecting 23k - that would keep EU a month ahead of last year.

Re CA or FL - we have a foot in both camps still - I think the long term plan is to end up in CA, but we might have to be a bit mobile this year. So I'm just buying an apartment in Boca Raton which could give us a base there - and we'll see how things work out.
 
evening simon
since your not sleeping yet can you tell me why i dont get EU on your spreadsheet ?
 
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