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For those that like to argue about statistics...

one has claimed the case number of 40XXX that means there would be lots of holes in Asia so that upcoming months vb cutoff would be burst
 
mijoro said:
What if there is no "big jump" and rates continue on as they are will any of the regions get to more than 50% of their selectees.
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EU is ahead of last year by about a month, and SA slightly ahead of last year. I think we need to see that pace continue for EU and SA, and then hope to see the other regions catch up. However, it has to be said, last year the quotas were almost filled with a lot less selectees, so it would not be a big surprise to see monthly VBs around the same point as last year. The increase in selectees was, I believe, a mistake based on a formula taking the results from the last completed year - 2012.
 
vladek15425 said:
Thanks man . that's now make a sens because I couldn't figure out what was the reason for the huge amount of selectees in 11dv.
Do u think there will be lot of holes since we spotted some cn in asia between 23xxx to 36xxx?
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I'm not sure what to make of those high numbers. We had three newbies report high numbers within a week of each other, and then the newbies went quiet. I'm not sure I accept them as 100% genuine.
 
britsimon said:
EU is ahead of last year by about a month, and SA slightly ahead of last year. I think we need to see that pace continue for EU and SA, and then hope to see the other regions catch up. However, it has to be said, last year the quotas were almost filled with a lot less selectees, so it would not be a big surprise to see monthly VBs around the same point as last year. The increase in selectees was, I believe, a mistake based on a formula taking the results from the last completed year - 2012.
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I know that US exceeds if it comes to morons and uneducated/seriously dumb people working at every possible government level including (especially) congress and the White House but this would mean that KCC is run by idiots!

In my opinion they just want to fill the quota, hence te increased number of selectees. If they have gone Sloner on this then people should not expect numbers different from last year going current.
 
mijoro said:
Well if the Kcc made the same mistake as sloner then that really is going to suck.
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franko said:
I know that US exceeds if it comes to morons and uneducated/seriously dumb people working at every possible government level including (especially) congress and the White House but this would mean that KCC is run by idiots!

In my opinion they just want to fill the quota, hence te increased number of selectees. If they have gone Sloner on this then people should not expect numbers different from last year going current.
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It's not that they are idiots - they probably know it was wrong - but government departments are not run by smart people making smart decisions, they are run by applying "logical" rules and procedures. So a logical procedure would be to work out the likely demand based on response rates and success rates of the last completed lottery. When DV2014 was planned, DV2012 would have been the last results. Now if you look at my numbers linked in the very first post you will see that I calculated rough demand for visas based on DV2012 response/success rates would be 49500 visas. In other words if you did use 2012 as a template it would tell you to draw 140,000 selectees to fill the quota. Honestly, I think that is exactly what they did, not based on stupidity, but based on a rule/procedure that could not have imagined a screw up like 2012.
 
I think the higher numbers are partly influenced by an assumption that certain countries high number of winners are not entirely genuine ie. fraud despite the high number of Ukrainian winners last year these still did not hit the ceiling of 7 %.
 
britsimon said:
It's not that they are idiots - they probably know it was wrong - but government departments are not run by smart people making smart decisions, they are run by applying "logical" rules and procedures. So a logical procedure would be to work out the likely demand based on response rates and success rates of the last completed lottery. When DV2014 was planned, DV2012 would have been the last results. Now if you look at my numbers linked in the very first post you will see that I calculated rough demand for visas based on DV2012 response/success rates would be 49500 visas. In other words if you did use 2012 as a template it would tell you to draw 140,000 selectees to fill the quota. Honestly, I think that is exactly what they did, not based on stupidity, but based on a rule/procedure that could not have imagined a screw up like 2012.
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If what you are saying is true then it is super tragic and we need a revolution :) I cannot believe that people would knowingly apply wrong numbers and there's no "special circumstances" option like going back to 2011 numbers for example. That's freakin heartless - so many people selected with high numbers, hoping for GC, for nothing.

On the other hand American government was selling weapons to Mexican cartels to "track" them and recently they found out that a guy working for EPA who hasn't showed up at work for two years told his bosses that he works for CIA in Afganistan and they believed him yeah...everything is unofortunately possible :/
 
In other words if you did use 2012 as a template it would tell you to draw 140,000 selectees to fill the quota. Honestly, I think that is exactly what they did, not based on stupidity, but based on a rule/procedure that could not have imagined a screw up like 2012.
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You do agree with my theory.
Long thought? You six months ago, I talked about it. But you kept on laughing.
I am glad that you have come to this.
 
So now this is it guys! There will be no big jump on march because we all agreed
At the end that the extra 40k selected is just a guarantee for the us government
To fill up his 50k or 55k visas quota,regardless and heartless towards the high cns
The pace of the cut offs will carry on a normal rate, obviously will see some jumps
Around may, june and july.... Because of the holes certainly, raevsky is right
They will hit the same cn as last year plus minus, and simon is also right if the nacara
Visas left over get reinjected into the dv than we might see few extra high cn Getting interviewed, like in EU might go up to CN 40.
So conclusion there no big jumb coming soon(march).
 
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Sloner said:
You do agree with my theory.
Long thought? You six months ago, I talked about it. But you kept on laughing.
I am glad that you have come to this.
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Yes Sloner I agree with the theory that using 2012 numbers as a statistical norm will lead to a lot of unhappy people. What you have done (and USCIS also) is assume that the return rate and success rate in 2014 will be the same as 2012 - and frankly that is a mistake that a small child would not make. I've laughed at you for a long time once it became obvious that you couldn't see reason, but what USCIS have done is not something to laugh about...
 
franko said:
If what you are saying is true then it is super tragic and we need a revolution :) I cannot believe that people would knowingly apply wrong numbers and there's no "special circumstances" option like going back to 2011 numbers for example. That's freakin heartless - so many people selected with high numbers, hoping for GC, for nothing.

On the other hand American government was selling weapons to Mexican cartels to "track" them and recently they found out that a guy working for EPA who hasn't showed up at work for two years told his bosses that he works for CIA in Afganistan and they believed him yeah...everything is unofortunately possible :/
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There is no special circumstance option because the quota is determined by law. The selectee count is determined by procedures, not law, so unfortunately, law will win.
 
vladek15425 said:
So now this is it guys! There will be no big jumb on march because we all agreed
At the end that the extra 40k selected is just a garantee for the us goverment
To fill up his 50k or 55k visas quota,regardless and heartless towards the high cns
The pace of the cut offs will carry on on a normal rate, obviously will see some jumbs
Around may, june and july.... Because of the holes certainly, raevsky is right
They will hit the same cn as last year plus minus, and simon is also right if the nacara
Visas left over get reinjected into the dv than we might see few extra high cn
Getting interviwed, like in EU might go up to CN 40.
So conclusion there no big jumb coming soon.
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We should still see a good jump because they will try to be ahead of last year (as they are in EU). The CEAC data only accounts for 45,000 visas. With aos and missing data Raevsky believes the 50k was hit - and that makes sense. However, there have been several years that have exceeded 50k - so I think they are already using some of the NACARA allowance - the only question is how much of the NACARA allowance will they use for DV...
 
britsimon said:
We should still see a good jump because they will try to be ahead of last year (as they are in EU). The CEAC data only accounts for 45,000 visas. With aos and missing data Raevsky believes the 50k was hit - and that makes sense. However, there have been several years that have exceeded 50k - so I think they are already using some of the NACARA allowance - the only question is how much of the NACARA allowance will they use for DV...
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There will be certainly some good jumps from may month so on, but for march
Im taking back MY BIG JUMP :( . And for EU thats bit futher compare to last year. i think
Its just some holes that kicked in! Because numbers cant be precisely the same.
But in general the pace seems to be running very normal rate.
 
Yes Sloner I agree with the theory that using 2012 numbers as a statistical norm will lead to a lot of unhappy people. What you have done (and USCIS also) is assume that the return rate and success rate in 2014 will be the same as 2012 - and frankly that is a mistake that a small child would not make. I've laughed at you for a long time once it became obvious that you couldn't see reason, but what USCIS have done is not something to laugh about...
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error it's your opinion. Not necessary here categorically assert.You know little about the mechanisms of the lottery.Therefore, all of your opinions is zilch.
 
Sloner said:
error it's your opinion. Not necessary here categorically assert.You know little about the mechanisms of the lottery.Therefore, all of your opinions is zilch.
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Yeah Sloner. You are obviously so much more knowledgeable about the mechanisms of the lottery. Thank you for your patience with us mere mortals.
 
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