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DV 2023 All Selectees (Consular Processing - CP)

@Britsimon

Hello Mr. Simon,

I'm looking at Ceac data. If I sort according to Submit date, each day numbers start from the lowest number and go up.
Does this mean that numbers are drawn for each day of registration?


Also once I read or heard from you that holes account for derivatives, is that true or I am imagining something?
 
DV2020EU44 said:
I'm looking at Ceac data. If I sort according to Submit date, each day numbers start from the lowest number and go up.
Does this mean that numbers are drawn for each day of registration?
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The numbers are drawn regardless of their registration day. eDV submission date is totally irrelevant to the case number. They might as well publish people's height or weight and you could sort by that too.
DV2020EU44 said:
Also once I read or heard from you that holes account for derivatives, is that true or I am imagining something?
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What do you mean by "account for"? Each eDV submission ends up a case number (we just don't see them all in CEAC - holes). Each eDV submission can have multiple people associated with it (derivatives).
 

Xarthisius​

1. I thought more about it and realized it's irrelevant, thanks for the answer.

2. There are 35K selectees in EU this year, and 18K case numbers. Does this mean, there are actually 35K people selected, but we see only 18K case numbers, because only main applicant's number is revealed.
 
DV2020EU44 said:
2. There are 35K selectees in EU this year, and 18K case numbers. Does this mean, there are actually 35K people selected, but we see only 18K case numbers, because only main applicant's number is revealed.
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There are 40065 people selected in total, which means primary applicants and their derivatives, and there are 18457 cases. That means 18457 people saw "You have been selected" page and they have 21608 derivatives (40065 - 18457). It also means that a case number is, on average, associated with 2 people.
 
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DV2020EU44 said:
@Britsimon

Hello Mr. Simon,

I'm looking at Ceac data. If I sort according to Submit date, each day numbers start from the lowest number and go up.
Does this mean that numbers are drawn for each day of registration?


Also once I read or heard from you that holes account for derivatives, is that true or I am imagining something?
Click to expand...
Sorry for being rather behind. Where do you access this CEAC data?
 
WOW it's great to see @Xarthisius here in the Forum. Love what you're doing man for DV winners.

I'm a DV23 winner & I believe your website section "How many cases there are before and after me?" needs major modifications to provide better info for winners.

You provide the ability for a winner to know whether his/her cn is at risk or not which is great. But the only problem is that you don't consider the case numbers that are in the except clause in every VB.

Let’s take AF as an example coz I’m from there. Selectees from countries like Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, etc are usually in the except clause coz they have many selectees concentrated in the lower case numbers. So in order to limit those people, they are put in except after they reach a certain cn.

What you're doing is just organizing case numbers in ascending order and providing “How many cases there are before and after me” stats by basically subtracting stuff. But without considering case numbers that are in the except clause which is a huge thing.

So according to the website, a cn like AF41k or 43k is in danger coz there are many cases from except countries that are in front of it that will never be current in the FY 23 coz VB will limit them.

Experts like Britsimon have always been preaching to us that case numbers below AF50k technically have a chance & shouldn’t worry in a normal year if the VB is controlled well, but now you’re saying a cn like AF43k is in danger which is really bizarre.

If you go to the fundamentals, VB controls everything & your website basically neglects that.

I hope you can understand what I’m talking about here and I think the website is not “yet” super efficient in the “How many cases there are before and after me” part. DV winners would love to have you handle this problem and make sure to consider except countries in the VB when doing your calculations.

I would really love to get your view on this, plz comment.
 
Kamal Moha said:
:DWOW it's great to see @Xarthisius here in the Forum. Love what you're doing man for DV winners.

I'm a DV23 winner & I believe your website section "How many cases there are before and after me?" needs major modifications to provide better info for winners.

You provide the ability for a winner to know whether his/her cn is at risk or not which is great. But the only problem is that you don't consider the case numbers that are in the except clause in every VB.

Let’s take AF as an example coz I’m from there. Selectees from countries like Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, etc are usually in the except clause coz they have many selectees concentrated in the lower case numbers. So in order to limit those people, they are put in except after they reach a certain cn.

What you're doing is just organizing case numbers in ascending order and providing “How many cases there are before and after me” stats by basically subtracting stuff. But without considering case numbers that are in the except clause which is a huge thing.

So according to the website, a cn like AF41k or 43k is in danger coz there are many cases from except countries that are in front of it that will never be current in the FY 23 coz VB will limit them.

Experts like Britsimon have always been preaching to us that case numbers below AF50k technically have a chance & shouldn’t worry in a normal year if the VB is controlled well, but now you’re saying a cn like AF43k is in danger which is really bizarre.

If you go to the fundamentals, VB controls everything & your website basically neglects that.

I hope you can understand what I’m talking about here and I think the website is not “yet” super efficient in the “How many cases there are before and after me” part. DV winners would love to have you handle this problem and make sure to consider except countries in the VB when doing your calculations.

I would really love to get your view on this, plz comment.
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You think @Xarthisius does not understand the fundamentals of DV or the impact/role of the VB? Really?? :D:D:D
 
I was filling DS-160 for my H1B visa and there is a question

"Has anyone ever filed an immigrant petition on your behalf with the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services? "

Since I have submitted DS-260 does this question needs to be answered as "Yes" ?

I am confused since the question says "Has anyone ever filed an immigrant petition on your behalf" and DS-260 was submitted by me.

Also, I am worried that whether it may impact my visa approval.
 
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vjnair said:
I was filling DS-160 for my H1B visa and there is a question

"Has anyone ever filed an immigrant petition on your behalf with the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services? "

Since I have submitted DS-260 does this question needs to be answered as "Yes" ?

I am confused since the question says "Has anyone ever filed an immigrant petition on your behalf" and DS-260 was submitted by me.
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You do not have an immigrant petition like an I130, or I140, filed with USCIS, so the answer to that question should be NO in this case.
 
Sm1smom said:
You may do so if you’ve decided about switching over to AOS. I wouldn’t recommend you make that payment if you’re still vacillating between the two options. Doing so can create additional delays and confusion for your case down the road. Once the payment is made, KCC will most likely presume you’ve switched over to AOS and subsequently stop processing your DS260 for CP, even though you haven’t emailed to formally request the switch.
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I have found this posts from GUMA77 and how he was thinking to change from CP to AOS.
As you know we are changing from AOS to CP (quote below).
Since for GUMA a payment for DV fee for AOS might have confused KCC, can our AOS fee payment made before the decisions to switch to CP confuse them now when they get to process our DS260 ..and maybe not processing it?
They will see the DS option for CP but they also have a 2 NL AOS for us+ AOS Dv receipt ..I was wondering if that will stop them from processing and we will just be waiting without knowing?

I will email KCC in February-March for updates. Maybe in 2 month they will get to our DS and process it.
Sm1smom said:
I suppose you received the AOS 2NL based on making the Administrative fee payment. If that’s the case, there was no need to email the KCC about switching from AOS to CP if you never submitted the DS260 form before and your first time submitting was when you decided to process CP. The DS260 will be processed when it gets to its turn once they see the CP option has been selected.
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Sm1smom said:
You think @Xarthisius does not understand the fundamentals of DV or the impact/role of the VB? Really?? :D:D:D
Click to expand...
I know @Xarthisius understands the role of VB. But the stats he brings up doesn't reflect that. I don't want to bring in ego here, I'm just here to learn.

When scraping ceac(with python or any other programming language), it's very hard/impossible to know which country a cn is from just from the case number and that's why I think that info is not provided/tracked. And because of that @Xarthisius can't tell if a cn is in except clause under VB. That's what I think & I understand nothing is perfect. You got to use the resources you have to provide Value & that's exactly what @Xarthisius is doing.

Again, I'm just here to learn from you experts @Sm1smom @Xarthisius @Britsimon
 
Kamal Moha said:
I know @Xarthisius understands the role of VB. But the stats he brings up doesn't reflect that. I don't want to bring in ego here, I'm just here to learn.

When scraping ceac(with python or any other programming language), it's very hard/impossible to know which country a cn is from just from the case number and that's why I think that info is not provided/tracked. And because of that @Xarthisius can't tell if a cn is in except clause under VB. That's what I think & I understand nothing is perfect. You got to use the resources you have to provide Value & that's exactly what @Xarthisius is doing.

Again, I'm just here to learn from you experts @Sm1smom @Xarthisius @Britsimon
Click to expand...
My response wasn’t about bringing in ego either. My response was in relation to what came across to me as a dismissive and unappreciative post to the efforts expended towards generating the data, imperfect as it may be. Personally, I appreciate constructive feedbacks, certainly not dismissive ones. The tone of the previous post is different from this second one (IMHO) which acknowledges the challenges of what can’t be done.
 
AMolHel said:
I have found this posts from GUMA77 and how he was thinking to change from CP to AOS.
As you know we are changing from AOS to CP (quote below).
Since for GUMA a payment for DV fee for AOS might have confused KCC, can our AOS fee payment made before the decisions to switch to CP confuse them now when they get to process our DS260 ..and maybe not processing it?
They will see the DS option for CP but they also have a 2 NL AOS for us+ AOS Dv receipt ..I was wondering if that will stop them from processing and we will just be waiting without knowing?

I will email KCC in February-March for updates. Maybe in 2 month they will get to our DS and process it.
Click to expand...
You need to stop comparing apples and oranges please. Did the post you’re referencing submit the DS260 for the first time with CP selected after making the DV administrative fee payment like you did? Why would KCC stop processing a DS260 form that says CP and has not followed up to indicate they’re switching from CP to AOS?
 
Kamal Moha said:
Experts like Britsimon have always been preaching to us that case numbers below AF50k technically have a chance & shouldn’t worry in a normal year if the VB is controlled well, but now you’re saying a cn like AF43k is in danger which is really bizarre.
Click to expand...
I'll skip everything else, cause you seem to understand that there's no information about FSC in CEAC (so it's not "hard" to give per country estimates, it's simply impossible) and only address the quoted part. The "percentile" info along with the message suggesting "your chance" is only there, so that people would stop asking @Britsimon that question over and over again... See his latest video:

It's never been, and never will be an estimate of probability of getting an interview. It's a simple tool for people who are unable to work with csv / databases.
 
Sm1smom said:
My response wasn’t about bringing in ego either. My response was in relation to what came across to me as a dismissive and unappreciative post to the efforts expended towards generating the data, imperfect as it may be. Personally, I appreciate constructive feedbacks, certainly not dismissive ones. The tone of the previous post is different from this second one (IMHO) which acknowledges the challenges of what can’t be done.
Click to expand...
Sorry if I sounded unappreciative in the first post, I truly didn't mean it I'm really Sorry . I appreciate all the value & help @Xarthisius is doing for DV Winners. Thank you bro

Xarthisius said:
I'll skip everything else, cause you seem to understand that there's no information about FSC in CEAC (so it's not "hard" to give per country estimates, it's simply impossible) and only address the quoted part. The "percentile" info along with the message suggesting "your chance" is only there, so that people would stop asking @Britsimon that question over and over again... See his latest video:

It's never been, and never will be an estimate of probability of getting an interview. It's a simple tool for people who are unable to work with csv / databases.
Click to expand...
I perfectly understand some info is not provided in CEAC thus why we can't get super clear results after scraping. That's part of the game & I get it.
And thank you for clarifying that the 'percentile' along with the message suggesting "your chance" will not/never be a probability of getting an interview.

Sorry man if I was a little naive/harsh in the first post, I didn't mean it. I TRULY appreciate how much help you're providing to thousands of people every single day of which I'm one of them. So again, thank you. You are such a smart guy who has been consistently providing immense VALUE to the DV Community for years. Your efforts are muchly appreciated @Xarthisius
 
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