Hello. I know what you are saying and I knew about this problem months ago. I appreciate your concerns and I know they're not out of malice. I've written a whole post in details arguing respectfully why your concern may have been addressed months ago by the government and why this issue may have been solved at least better than your expectation. I know it's a lot, but I was in my arguing mood after reading the text you wrote and the video.
Before everything, I know that you think Iranians get the 4-6 months AP. I have some reasons to believe that I have the probability of getting cleared in time. I've seen a forum for Iranians sharing their AP experience every year from 2016-2008 (before telegram), having read 100s of timelines. I know that the 4-6 months was a rarity rather than a typical one which I also have clues of why it happened for them. I have also seen DV21/22 Iranians' progress in AP. Given my own circumstances, I do see a non-zero probability of getting cleared on time because of maybe a 100 cases that I've skimmed through.
Now, for the visa numbers, running out: I think the government did something in April/May with the expectation of exactly a scenario like this. They actually had the issue in April for AS. I've written some arguments as best I can relying on UAO vs Biden declarations since that is public.
Here's your world: There are only 54850 visa numbers available, literally as in like physical balls present in their system on day 1. To be issued, the person needs one of these. They get sent to the posts once scheduled along with the cases (people in the case) and if they are un-issued they will be sent back to the KCC/VO within 5 calendar days after the month's end by the post (FAM). So, take a perfect scenario, if 54849 visas are issued and the 54850th is at embassy A with one person for a September interview and the guy doesn't show up, the visa can't go to a person at embassy B that has gotten the clearance in September and the 54850th visa number would go to waste as the FY ends before it can be recycled.
<<Had to snip for the text limit>>
Wow, this is a novel. I'm sorry I missed it - I didn't see this as a reply to me.
There are a couple of major problems with your position.
First, your idea of numbers for August and September is incorrect. We have the actual data, we know how many cases there are and we know the derivatives. It isn't 28489. Your number is quite largely overstated. Why? Because you did not account for now shows.
No shows stay at ready status so they are in the CEAC system. Rather brilliantly, Xarthisius tags the cases with the 2NL date and I looked at 2NLs for January to April (meaning interviews up to end of June) and that was 1581 cases, 3400 people. So - we can take that number out of Xarthisius' Ready count (about 27K) as well as now the July no shows. So that suggests about 24k ready cases (using Xarthisius' more accurate method than Franks'). We can double check that with data files that show 26K people scheduled from June 12 onwards (which includes some later July interviews scheduled AND includes 2000 interviews scheduled August 1 to 4 which could have been using July recycled numbers). So - bottomline - I don't think they have exceeded the 54850 at all, but are actually bumping up close to it. It would be reckless (and against the rules) to schedule cases without having a visa for them. The only time we saw something like that was the 2013 Iranian mess where they cancelled scheduled interviews in September. BUT that was the country cap, which I believe snuck up on them.
As for the pump thing you think happened, I didn't quite get your point, but does AV really mean allocated. No, I don't think so. I do not believe they have allocated 100k visas thus ignoring the global cap. We did see a new status after AV (INTS) and that, I believe is the was to "count" the visas that are actually allocated. Just a guess, but it makes sense. Having 100K Allocated does not.
By the way, On Friday when I made the video I also predicted what would happen to 2NLs early this week. I said that there would be a few 2NLs - a few here and a few there. That is exactly what has happened in the last three days. Again, this is, I believe, based on them working from previous refusals. Then they issued the September VB, bringing on the next year. So whatever they do over the next few days for DV2022, that would be the dying gasps. The clearing AP cases are mainly to be fed by recycled visas from August. There might be a few more left from July, but July scheduled was not as high as August.
If they have developed some new capability, my wish would be that they found a way to recycle faster in the month so that more could be re-used in September. But clearly between visas issued, (32.5) plus 17 - 19k from remaining interviews in August and September, plus AP clearances out of the 7K cases plus the remainder of AOS issuances we are well within the "worry zone".