Official May data for visa issuances released. if my math is correct just over
4900 DVs issued via consular posts in May. That’s basically full DV capacity for a normal year …even though some posts (Accra, looking at you) are clearly way below normal. So seems there is some genuine effort to get DVs done at the consulates where there is capacity. Lots (relative) of issuance at Frankfurt and Warsaw, presumably Ukrainians and Russians. Not an expert in Central Asia but looks like these embassies eg Yerevan and Tashkent are also issuing a lot. (Interestingly Johannesburg issued 57, way above what could normally be expected - maybe catch-up as well as other nationals (than SA and Zim). )
Well, there's been around 26,500 interviews scheduled for 55,000 people by the end of August. I guess 4500 for September based on August interviews and considering that many Schengen embassies, South America, good AS embassies are done, and OC has very few left.
There will be about 31000 interviews for DV22 corresponding to 60,000-65000 people.
That being said, the no-shows alone this year are a lot. For example: Kinshasa-DRC, biggest DV African embassy has at least 50% no-shows and from the show-ups half issuance and the other half getting refused or AP. The no-shows are also high for Warsaw and Frankfurt (biggest two EU embassies) because of Russians not getting a Schengen visa and Ukrainians not able to leave the country.
The no-show alone for AS is at 10%.
The final issuance number is all about them clearing the APs.
I think if assuming there isn't a regional quota applied (or no limitation on reallocating the unused visas within regions), and by using the regional quotas from the DV21 calculated by savdiversityvisa.com for the purpose of counting and an optimistic view of the clearances:
SA will not reach or get close to its quota.
EU wouldn't fill its quota. The remainder could be enough to fill the 500 or so needed for OC's excess.
AS would need 2000. AOS would need 1500 or so. These could come from AF.
AF at a miraculous best would be underfilled by 4000.
Anyways, if they do clear all APs (those done outside the consulate), their system doesn't crash with an obvious issue ( I think they fixed it) the final tally could reach 53,000±2,000 visas.