SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
You may have noticed i’m a little sceptical at some of these sites and never use them.Well, there's been around 26,500 interviews scheduled for 55,000 people by the end of August. I guess 4500 for September based on August interviews and considering that many Schengen embassies, South America, good AS embassies are done, and OC has very few left.
There will be about 31000 interviews for DV22 corresponding to 60,000-65000 people.
That being said, the no-shows alone this year are a lot. For example: Kinshasa-DRC, biggest DV African embassy has at least 50% no-shows and from the show-ups half issuance and the other half getting refused or AP. The no-shows are also high for Warsaw and Frankfurt (biggest two EU embassies) because of Russians not getting a Schengen visa and Ukrainians not able to leave the country.
The no-show alone for AS is at 10%.
The final issuance number is all about them clearing the APs.
I think if assuming there isn't a regional quota applied (or no limitation on reallocating the unused visas within regions), and by using the regional quotas from the DV21 calculated by savdiversityvisa.com for the purpose of counting and an optimistic view of the clearances:
SA will not reach or get close to its quota.
EU wouldn't fill its quota. The remainder could be enough to fill the 500 or so needed for OC's excess.
AS would need 2000. AOS would need 1500 or so. These could come from AF.
AF at a miraculous best would be underfilled by 4000.
Anyways, if they do clear all APs (those done outside the consulate), their system doesn't crash with an obvious issue ( I think they fixed it) the final tally could reach 53,000±2,000 visas.
I have never once - not once - heard of anyone having an interview cancelled because of a regional quota being hit. 7% country limit yes, overall DV visa limit yes, regional quota - nada. I know what the rules say but have yet to see a shred of evidence that it’s a hard limit in practice.
AF is seriously under quota. Accra has issued a handful of visas a month. Assuming roughly a 50% hit rate on selectees that’s already going to be close to 1500 visas under quota right there. Addis and Cairo haven’t been much better vs selectees. I think that AF 4000 underfill is easy.