I managed to catch BritSimons interview with Jesse this morning. Good viewing for someone like myself who is pretty new to this area...
During that interview, I heard Jesse's comment that he believes all regions will go current this year as it is part of the KCC "playbook". I'm taking this to mean that even if the amount of issued visas has no chance of getting to the 55k available for this year (which definitely seems to be the case), the US gov will still push all cases to go current for appearances sake. Though, I don't fully understand that strategy, noting that being made current may improve the case merits of individuals filing lawsuits for DV2022. But either way, this is a pretty new perspective for me, as I was under the impression that case numbers would move more inline with actual issued visa counts. So, I wanted to get a read on peoples opinions w.r.t Jesse's comment.
Jesse and I have had this conversation before in other videos. I think Butters above has captured some important aspects above, including the point that making the regions current is like throwing a lifeline to get a few more cases through. It's possible, though not certain. However, let me just explain how the VB is "supposed" to work, based on my years of watching the process (including a period where I got pretty close to being able to predict the VB numbers), AND based on confirming my understanding directly via email with Chalie Oppenheim, who was until 2 months ago THE guy that decided VB movement. THE. GUY.
The Visa Office have an idea of how many visas they have to issue at any given point, and they split that work up over the year to spread the load. They take into account the available visas, the capacity and so on. THen they are provided the DQ case numbers from KCC each month. The DQ cases are those that are ready to be scheduled. Even though the document procedure is now gone, there is still a status of DQ. Since Dec 9th that means cases that have had their DS260 processed.
So - the VO looks at worldwide capacity, visa availability, and demand (only DQ cases). They then look at the cases already current and see how many DQ cases that yields. If that exceeds capacity they don't need to move the VB at all. If they need more cases, they move the VB to "yield" more DQ cases.
To give an example If they are looking for 1000 cases in a region and this month there are already 800 cases DQ (because KCC processed more cases), then they only have to move the VB by enough to get those extra 200 cases. That migh mean moving the VB by 500 cas numbers.
That is pretty much what they did last month. I think you should note that I explained that in a video the day before the VB that they really did not need to move the VB much or at all. Some idiots literally blamed me for that video thinking the government were following what little old me said. However, the fact that I was correct showed that they were simply following the method I described. If they continue following that method, they won't go current. It's as simple as that. They have to break the rules to go current.
Now - why did 2020 and 2021 go current then? (and remember, this is the only experience that all the loved lawyers have to go by).
Well the document procedure was in place and KCC were screwing that up completely so it meant that the number of cases becoming DQ were very low. Charlie misread that as low demand. Since there was such low demand he felt comfortable in making all regions current - and that at least gave a chance to some high case numbers and AOS cases.
So - whilst I see Jesse's perspective and the points that Butters made, I am not 100% convinced we will see current. But who really knows. No one.
