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DV 2022 All Selectees (Consular Processing - CP)

MCK23 said:
I found some response rates by region on Brit Simon's page from 2015

AF 61%
EU 52%
AS 69%
SA 55%
OC 46%

Let's make an example calculation for the EU region.
Below the 13500 VB there are 10074 cases going with 55 % instead of 52 %.
There are 5541 cases expected to respond. Currently they have processed 2316 cases.
That leave 3225 cases, which need to be processed before they should, not necessarily will, move
the VB up.

Assuming they can process 1000 cases per month for EU alone. That brings us to June before they should move
the VB.

Pointing out errors in this crude estimation will be appreciated.
Click to expand...
The response rate varies each year for eaxch country and region depending on what is going on in the USA, the world, the countries and regions where selectees come from and so on. So - only use previous years data in a broad sense. Also, in some regions (not so much EU) there are a significant number of people allocated to embassies that are closed. We can't tell which cases those are, or how many of course.

Just be careful on publishing conclusions. I don't predict stuff in these times. It's not because I don't know how to predict using math, it's because I understand that there are many factors that we cannot predict. So - giving or taking hope based on predictions seems unwise. It's great to make people aware of what is going on, but we should avoid giving the impression we know exactly what will happen - because we don't.
 
Hello, how is everybody here,
Im DV22 EU20***
Me and my husband were wondering if we can go to the US this year with H2B visas(probably in April) because we have no idea when will be our interview for the GC.. what do you think.. will they approve our H2B visas?
If anyone can say something It will be very helpful for me!

Thank you!
 
Britsimon said:
The response rate varies each year for each country and region depending on what is going on in the USA, the world, the countries and regions where selectees come from and so on. So - only use previous years data in a broad sense. Also, in some regions (not so much EU) there are a significant number of people allocated to embassies that are closed. We can't tell which cases those are, or how many of course.
Click to expand...
Hello Simon, thank you for your response and your engagement in general!

I understand the response rate changes, it's barely a statistical value. I just try to understand were the numbers come from.
I calculated the "non-response rate" by looking at the final CEAC Data comparing the cases that remain "At NVC" to the processed cases.
I get for the EU region.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Response Rate: 48,55% 48,57% 45,39% 49,22% 40,38%
Non-Response Rate: 51,45% 51,43%. 54,61%. 50,78%. 59,62%

My numbers differ slightly from your blog post. Maybe you can clarify what you did differently?

Also do you have any understanding of the process at KCC how they split up their capacity of the ~3000 cases per month
onto the different regions?
 
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Britsimon said:
Just be careful on publishing conclusions. I don't predict stuff in these times. It's not because I don't know how to predict using math, it's because I understand that there are many factors that we cannot predict. So - giving or taking hope based on predictions seems unwise. It's great to make people aware of what is going on, but we should avoid giving the impression we know exactly what will happen - because we don't.
Click to expand...
I understand your cautiousness. But it's normal to look at different scenarios and try to estimate things.
Maybe we should just call it educated guesses if people don't understand that predictions are based on certain assumptions.
Like you said in one of your videos to assume the response rate is only 30 percent is Wishful Thinking.

I for example have to estimate if I even have a shot at my number getting current and if it is useful
to join a lawsuit.
 
Thank you for your answer @MCK23...I tried to join the french embassy but I did' nt have any answer...
@French_Ellie wow thanks very much, I saw this page but not very well because I was on my phone! did you create one applicant for all family or one per person please? To send documents to my home we have to pay 20e is it exact? Could you telle me when did you receive your documents please, quickly or not? Do you have some advices for the interview please?
@Joyfamily.Fr hi no I wrote your name to have the answer because I read you had your interview...
 
Laly said:
@French_Ellie wow thanks very much, I saw this page but not very well because I was on my phone! did you create one applicant for all family or one per person please? To send documents to my home we have to pay 20e is it exact? Could you telle me when did you receive your documents please, quickly or not? Do you have some advices for the interview please?
Click to expand...

I’m a single applicant, so I don’t know for sure how it works when you are applying for your family too… but since you only have one interview appointment (and one case number) for the whole family, I would imagine you only register once under the main applicant’s name.

Yes you have to pay to get you passport and documents sent back to your home (otherwise you have to come collect them in Paris). I paid 19€ and I received my passport, visa and documents at home on January 5 days after my interview.

Regarding the interview itself, if you go back a few pages on this post, back to January 12th, I’ve written a fairly detailed description of my interview in Paris. Have a look, and then let me know if you have any questions.
 
Developer22 said:
Hi all, I hope you are doing well.
Do you think there is a difference between the two emails and if so, what is their meaning? The first one I received 2 weeks ago after an inquiry, and the second one is from yesterday.

CN Eu31xx
Ds260 filled in 8th of July
Click to expand...
Hello there!!! When did you send mail to KCC once your CN is current or ? Before that ?
 
@SusieQQQ

My question is that one of my friend in SRILANKA their CN is current AS63** I don’t wether it’s true or not but they says like that even if their CN is current they did not get any 2NL mails why is it what’s is the reason maybe and also already 2 cases of DV interviewed in our Country it seems other all interviews are happening. What they can do please!!!!
 
@French_Ellie Salut merci beaucoup, oui j'ai lu ton post c'est très utile ! Quelles pièces avez-vous donné pour votre travail? Je suis stressé d'oublier quelque chose...
 
Sm1smom said:
1. In most places, signing marriage documents in a court or a registry is all that is required for one to be considered legally married. If that applies in your county, then that is all you need in order to add a newly acquired spouse to your DV selection. A large wedding ceremony does not make a marriage more legal or genuine.
2. There’s an expectation for anyone getting married after the DV selection to be able to demonstrate the marriage is genuine and not a sham/GC marriage. Be prepared to demonstrate you’ve have had existing relationship prior to your DV selection.
Click to expand...
I attach what I have prepared, in case it is useful for anyone. I got married after winning too.

- I have printed on paper hundreds of pictures of my husband and myself. From vacations as a couple, family vacations, parties and special dates, sports and cultural events, our wedding... basically pictures of us doing our life these last 10 years.
- A copy of the contract for our first apartment, in both our names.
- Copies of bills such as telephone, electricity, water... in both of our names.
- Document of the bank with both names and date of creation of the account.
- Plane tickets for some of the vacations.
...

My DS has not been processed yet and I am not current, but I wanted to be prepared for when it arrives.

I hope it helps if you are in the same situation.
 
MCK23 said:
Hello Simon, thank you for your response and your engagement in general!

I understand the response rate changes, it's barely a statistical value. I just try to understand were the numbers come from.
I calculated the "non-response rate" by looking at the final CEAC Data comparing the cases that remain "At NVC" to the processed cases.
I get for the EU region.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Response Rate: 48,55% 48,57% 45,39% 49,22% 40,38%
Non-Response Rate: 51,45% 51,43%. 54,61%. 50,78%. 59,62%

My numbers differ slightly from your blog post. Maybe you can clarify what you did differently?

Also do you have any understanding of the process at KCC how they split up their capacity of the ~3000 cases per month
onto the different regions?
Click to expand...
You are not looking at response rate. You are looking at cases scheduled, and not taking into account other factors that stopped people from proceeding in almost all those years (cutoffs, bans, document procedure and so on).
 
Ikshaf said:
Th

thank you so much!! I visited those web is it true how they collect informations ??
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Through a secret organization that have agents in every corner of the world hiding in plain sight. They spy on both selectees and embassies alike. Do you think that the cleaning lady you met today was *just* a cleaning lady?! Oh, and a lot of homing pigeons is involved. No modern technology can compete with pigeons.
Of course both sites claim they extract data from CEAC but we all know that's a blatant lie...
 
Ikshaf said:
Th

thank you so much!! I visited those web is it true how they collect informations ??
Click to expand...
data is being collected and regularly updated from CEAC.


Britsimon has posts on his blog, how CEAC data is collected, you can search CEAC on his blog and read older posts about it.
 
If you have doubts and want to validate the data, you can download excel file and randomly check Case Numbers on CEAC and you will see the statuses.

Otherwise see Xarthisius's response above :)
 
Yep you are right
CEAC is it from gov right so it is but I was saying about that another web which has mentioned I believe in only my god (Allah ) he’s only one can help me I pray for him that those who got won this lottery should get the chance.....
DV2020EU44 said:
data is being collected and regularly updated from CEAC.


Britsimon has posts on his blog, how CEAC data is collected, you can search CEAC on his blog and read older posts about it.
Click to expand...
 
Ikshaf said:
Yep you are right
CEAC is it from gov right so it is but I was saying about that another web which has mentioned I believe in only my god (Allah ) he’s only one can help me I pray for him that those who got won this lottery should get the chance.....
Click to expand...
so data on those websites are taken from CEAC, that's what I'm saying.
 
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