Jesse's opinion was a follow up to what he said in the previous BritSimon interviews (check the first interview with him). In short, Jesse's opinion was that if he were in the government lawyers' shoes and saw the current numbers issued in the lawsuits, they would want to pump up the numbers to look better in front of a judge. So, they would talk with the government and tell them to get the numbers up. Now, one tactic the government could use is to increase the VB a lot, reveal more selectees and so more interviews. This could mean someone in a small EU embassy about to be current in September would become current and issued a visa sooner so that the numbers in front of the judge would look better.
Also, note that the lawsuit was filed on 1st February. Then we saw loads of 2NLs from Ankara, Islamabad, Katmandu and some Algeria. These were unprecedented in timing meaning that we usually wouldn't see any 2NLs in the first two weeks of a month, yet alone from closed embassies.
Also, in my personal opinion, they could go current in VB in June/July as to maximise visa usage. In other words if they go as usual, they may issue 20k visas. But, if they go current, they could use an additional 10k (arbitrary numbers) visas by prople in countries with few selectees and free embassies. I know how the VB supposed to work, but this could be part of the government's playbook as Jesse mentioend.
On the contrary, they could also slow the VB as to argue lawsuits should be dismissed as lots of plaintiffs aren't current. However, as Jesse said, this would also work against them since it's showing the damage they've done.
Another point which noone has mentioned. There's the immpact litigation which has been filed (not sure if it's been filed) in DC and could most likely go in front of judge Mehta. Now, Judge Mehta has only seen 2020 and 2021 cases where all regions went current. He did also understood that high case numbers are in a jeopardy due to their number. But, overall the immpact litigation could argue for VB and there'd be some interesting stuff there.
We will hopefully see some more government response with respect to VB and 2NLs by the end of February. Both of these for one could give us a very good clue of the mathematics behind the year. There may also be some good surprises.