In the Goh final order, Judge Mehta gave us a %31 chance of adjudication, assuming that the total number of plaintiffs including derivatives is 1550. (0.31 x 1550 = 481 reserved visas)
But we know that as of Sept 27th, some 149 Goh plaintiffs (356 incl. derivatives) were already adjudicated.
By subtracting the number of adjudicated plaintiffs and their derivatives from the original total, we get 1194 plaintiffs and their derivatives who are awaiting adjudication. (1550 original total - 356 already adjudicated = 1194)
Now, by applying the same formula on the new total, and ignoring all other factors, like refusals and adjudicated APs or DQs, we see the odds jump from %31 to %40. (481 reserved visas / 1194 new total = %40.2 chance of adjudication)
I think if we have more accurate data, our chances of adjudication could possibly reach %50 if we take into account the number of actual refused interviews and number of adjudicated plaintiffs between Sept 27th and Sept 30th.
I have asked Charles and Aaron for updated information about current status of all Goh plaintiffs. Hopefully they provide us with more accurate data soon.