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DV 2020 All Selectees

SusieQQQ said:
You do realize that winners are selected in proportion to entry? If there are more Nepalese winners than most other Asian countries, it's because there are more entering. Nothing to do with the travel ban.
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Let's look at visa statistics so far. Nepal has got 2029 visas so far and Iran has got 6 visas. We know Iran has most entries and most winners in Asia. If there weren't any travel Ban there would be at least 2000 visas issued to the Iranian up to this point and total visas would amount to 5000. But due to the Ban the total number of issued visas for Asia is 3014. The average number of visas for people from Asia has been 6500 in recent years. So there are still at least 3500 visas to be issued and I'm sure all of the remaining Nepalese will get their visas even if they go current in final 2 months of the fiscal year.
This means that Nepal will be the only country in the lottery with almost 100% rate of getting Green Cards and this is only due to ill-organized visa bulletin for Asia that benefits Nepalese. The DOS must maintain the cap for Nepal from beginning to the end of the fiscal year.
 
Britsimon said:
So to make it "fair" all the Nepal winners should be held up because the Iranian cases cannot be issued. What nonsense. By this flawed logic, no visas should be given to selectees of any country! As Susie points out, a Nepal selectee had the same (or less) chance as anyone else in the region. So why should they wait because of Iranian cases?
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My point is that the DOS must maintain the cap for Nepal even in final 2 months of the fiscal year so that people with high case numbers who are not Nepalese can have some hope. But at the present it seems most of visas are used up by Nepal.
 
Alishan said:
Let's look at visa statistics so far. Nepal has got 2029 visas so far and Iran has got 6 visas. We know Iran has most entries and most winners in Asia. If there weren't any travel Ban there would be at least 2000 visas issued to the Iranian up to this point and total visas would amount to 5000. But due to the Ban the total number of issued visas for Asia is 3014. The average number of visas for people from Asia has been 6500 in recent years. So there are still at least 3500 visas to be issued and I'm sure all of the remaining Nepalese will get their visas even if they go current in final 2 months of the fiscal year.
This means that Nepal will be the only country in the lottery with almost 100% rate of getting Green Cards and this is only due to ill-organized visa bulletin for Asia that benefits Nepalese. The DOS must maintain the cap for Nepal from beginning to the end of the fiscal year.
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what , lol

the rate of "success" has a lot of other factors affecting it, for example some countries have high rates of fraud so high refusals, some countries have a a large percentage of selectees who decide not to proceed with the cases for various reasons etc. Why do you want to penalize a country just because a large portion of its selectees proceed with the case and are qualified to do so? That makes absolutely no sense to me whatsoever. While you are complaining about Iranians not being issued, why don't you ask all those Iranian selectees why they entered when they know there is a ban and they didn't have the factors necessary to overcome the ban like the 6 who did get issued? Technically those are the ones wasting Asian visa numbers, not the Nepalese.
 
Alishan said:
My point is that the DOS must maintain the cap for Nepal even in final 2 months of the fiscal year so that people with high case numbers who are not Nepalese can have some hope. But at the present it seems most of visas are used up by Nepal.
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And how would that help or be more fair? It wouldn't.

You even contradict your own position in your other post to Susie where you say " We know Iran has most entries and most winners in Asia.". OK so you know how it works, but you think other countries should be disadvantaged for no good reason.

No. You have missed the point Susie made. It's by case number. There is no preference given to Nepal, it is purely a matter of entries - so people from ANY other Asian country could get more selectees and visas than Nepal if they got off their arses and entered the lottery. They don't, so why should they be given preference over people in front of them by ranking order. The draw is random and only based on the number of entries.

Really - your arguments make no sense whatsoever. We have had all these conversations before and you have enough information available to you to make a more sensible assessment. However, you are determined to be angry about something, and right now your target is Nepali selectees.

Very silly.
 
Britsimon said:
Not published yet. But the selectee count for Germany is bases on entries within the EU. It's relative. So - as other countries increase, the German selectee number could drop.
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Simon, are you aware of such dramatic shifts within the EU region, so much so that it can have such a devastating outcome on selectee numbers for Germany? And since these are selectee numbers, not case numbers (right?), the actual number of cases must be around 200 for the whole nation of 80 Mio people! The number of participants has not dropped (unless it has after DV2018).

1563861272892.png
 
OnTheGo said:
Simon, are you aware of such dramatic shifts within the EU region, so much so that it can have such a devastating outcome on selectee numbers for Germany? And since these are selectee numbers, not case numbers (right?), the actual number of cases must be around 200 for the whole nation of 80 Mio people! The number of participants has not dropped (unless it has after DV2018).

View attachment 1156
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If I'm not wrong, it was mentioned that we are yet to find out what feature was introduced that saw so many selectees left out of the draw.
 
Hello everyone,
I have two questions:
1 - I realized that I had entered my father's surname without an accent. His surname is Futrò, but on the ds260 form I wrote Futro because he didn't take the character '. is it okay?
2 - the name of my city of birth is very long and the characters were not enough. I put the name with the dot.
is it okay?
thanks :)
 
OnTheGo said:
Simon, are you aware of such dramatic shifts within the EU region, so much so that it can have such a devastating outcome on selectee numbers for Germany? And since these are selectee numbers, not case numbers (right?), the actual number of cases must be around 200 for the whole nation of 80 Mio people! The number of participants has not dropped (unless it has after DV2018).

View attachment 1156
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Well I'm not sure it is "devastating". But yes I have noticed the shifts and have previously explained/predicted them.

1. There has been a shift toward larger number of entries from Eastern EU. http://britsimonsays.com/analysis-about-the-low-dv2018-cutoff-number-for-eu/
2. This is a low selection year in general.
3. The numbers for Germany are in line with other countries if we assume similar entry numbers as DV2018 (the last year where we have country specific data). So assuming Moldova had 300+k entries again (6 times more than Germany) you could ask why Germany did so well compared to Moldova. I would suggest less disqualifications in Germany than Moldova because people there (stereotypically) are rule followers. Now - look at France and Italy (stereotypically NOT rule followers) and you can see their numbers of around 200 selectees are less than Germany proportionally - meaning more Italian and French cases were probably disqualified than German cases.

In other words - all is as expected given the points I made in point 1 and 2 and understanding the stereotypically expected behaviors in point 3.
 
Britsimon said:
Well I'm not sure it is "devastating". But yes I have noticed the shifts and have previously explained/predicted them.

1. There has been a shift toward larger number of entries from Eastern EU. http://britsimonsays.com/analysis-about-the-low-dv2018-cutoff-number-for-eu/
2. This is a low selection year in general.
3. The numbers for Germany are in line with other countries if we assume similar entry numbers as DV2018 (the last year where we have country specific data). So assuming Moldova had 300+k entries again (6 times more than Germany) you could ask why Germany did so well compared to Moldova. I would suggest less disqualifications in Germany than Moldova because people there (stereotypically) are rule followers. Now - look at France and Italy (stereotypically NOT rule followers) and you can see their numbers of around 200 selectees are less than Germany proportionally - meaning more Italian and French cases were probably disqualified than German cases.

In other words - all is as expected given the points I made in point 1 and 2 and understanding the stereotypically expected behaviors in point 3.
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Thanks for that. Well...devestating to realize the real chances for someone from Germany. Say 60k entries and 150 cases (assuming 2.2 selectees per case) means a chance of 0.25% which is 1 in 400 to be a selectee in Germany.
 
OnTheGo said:
Thanks for that. Well...devestating to realize the real chances for someone from Germany. Say 60k entries and 150 cases (assuming 2.2 selectees per case) means a chance of 0.25% which is 1 in 400 to be a selectee in Germany.
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But it's not "in Germany". It's the same for all countries in Europe, and in fact most countries will have LOWER success rates than Germany (through country limits, or disqualifications).

So what you are really lamenting is the low chance of selection in a lottery. That's why it is called a "lottery", not a "plan".

;-)
 
Britsimon said:
But it's not "in Germany". It's the same for all countries in Europe, and in fact most countries will have LOWER success rates than Germany (through country limits, or disqualifications).

So what you are really lamenting is the low chance of selection in a lottery. That's why it is called a "lottery", not a "plan".

;-)
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You are right of course. It's just that the chances have never been lower now and alternative routes are unbelievably difficult, unless you are a manager or engineer or IT professional.

I know this is beyond the scope of this sub-forum, but speaking of a "plan" ... I was considering setting up a business on an E-2 visa, however that does not lead to a green card despite high requirements of operating a successful business and employing staff. I would have to get my wife to pursue work opportunities outside of my own business based on an EAD she would be eligible for and work for an employer likely to sponsor her via the EB-3 route down the track, even though she would already be legally allowed to work as an E2 visa beneficiary (spouse). There is a group of E2 visa holders lobbying the Government to change the rules that would allow them to apply for green cards after ten years. It's an uphill battle like everything. There is no visa category for business people that leads to a green card apart from the EB-5 visa, the 'million dollar visa' that just became even less achievable than before due to increased investment sums, up to $900k from $500k for higher than average unemployment areas, and $1.8Mio from $1Mio for every other area. The minimum of 10 staff rule makes it almost impossible to achieve for most in their own small business, which results in almost all of these investments going towards these 'Regional Center' projects (third party developer who satisfies the job creation requirement on behalf of the investor client).

Trump wants to cut down on family based immigration and curtail illegal entries, but there is so far no plan to be seen that would result in small business investment leading to green cards, among other avenues of increased 'merit based' categories.
 
WBA said:
I submitted on Jul 17th and got the confirmation email right away but still waiting for the second email. I don't expect to have it soon but t was very fast for you. What's your CN range?
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I just submitted mine a few hours ago so we’ll see how it goes! Good luck! What is your CN?
 
WBA said:
Great!! I submitted a couple of days ago. What is your CN range?
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CN is OC1XX so i’m hoping I hear back from them soon since I’m guessing that my interview will be scheduled in October/November and I can’t believe we’re heading into August already. Seems like it was just yesterday we found out we were selected.
 
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Dolphintail said:
CN is OC1XX so i’m hoping I hear back from them soon since I’m guessing that my interview will be scheduled in October/November and I can’t believe we’re heading into August already. Seems like it was just yesterday we found out we were selected.
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One day to fill out the DS260? It took me 4 days...
 
Hello,
I have to plan for my future accordingly.
I know that local field office plays a deciding factor in diversity-related I-485 applications.
I am wondering if processing time of I-485 in a local field office located in a big city necessarily takes longer than that of the office in a small city?
 
Alishan said:
Hello,
I have to plan for my future accordingly.
I know that local field office plays a deciding factor in diversity-related I-485 applications.
I am wondering if processing time of I-485 in a local field office located in a big city necessarily takes longer than that of the office in a small city?
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You clearly know there’s an AOS thread dedicated to AOS related questions. So why are you still posting AOS questions on this thread?
 
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