DV 2019 Will Be Soon!!!!!!!
- Thread starter lawm
- Start date
WOW. This is the same situation I am in lol.
Currently getting ready to sell my things to leave because I couldn't find an employer in order to extend my work permit. It freaking SUCKS. I have to go back to my island and I really really don't want to.
Best of luck man. This is my 5th year trying for this.
Hey people! I just wanted to wish the best of luck to everyone here. This is at least 17th time that I am in the draw, as far as I can track. Crazy, I know. Normally, the draw would be announced today at noon ET but this time it is delayed for 15 days for well known reasons. I consider these 15 days as a bonus time to keep my hopes and dreams still aliveGood luck and never give up!
17th time? jesus.. wow. that's..wow. I don't even know what to say.
evanmanas373737
New Member
Hi, I'm new to this forum. I entered my official address when filing the DV-2019 entry because the post box at my apartment is located outside and anyone can access it. There were few incidents of missing mails and also received deformed mails due to rain. But my official address which has an allocated postbox for me is more secure and I'm getting most of my mails into it. So my questions are 1) Is it ok if I entered my official address when filling DV-2019 lottery entry?
2) Which address should I want to enter in the "current address" field in the DS-260 application if I selected (Official or My current apartment address)?
It would be highly appreciated if anyone can answer these questions?
*Please Note that I can provide proofs for each and every address that I'm using and have used to date whenever USCIS asks for.
2) Which address should I want to enter in the "current address" field in the DS-260 application if I selected (Official or My current apartment address)?
It would be highly appreciated if anyone can answer these questions?
*Please Note that I can provide proofs for each and every address that I'm using and have used to date whenever USCIS asks for.
Man of Constant Sorrow
Member
Me neither! LOL
We have all seen a number of people playing for the first time and winning. Or being selected after playing two, three or five times. But it's quite rare to see people playing over 15 times and still not being selected. That's just my 'luck' so far. Hope it changes on May 15th this year.
robert obaga
New Member
Hey man its a weird place to be when home on paper just doesn't feel like home anymore.. lets hope we have luck this year.
Cheers!
Sm1smom
Super Moderator
1. That’s irrelevant to the process, no physical mail gets sent.
2. Get selected first, it’s a lotter.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Statistically it makes perfect sense. Your chance of being selected in any year is entirely independent of whether or not you’ve entered before. And as you should know the chances of being selected are much longer than that, more like 1 in 100 if not worse, so it’s entirely logical to expect to enter every year you’re alive and possibly never get selected.
Just like someone who buys a lotto ticket every week, who never really expects to win, but knows that “someone” has to at some stage so they keep chancing their luck.
Hello everyone, just trying to find some comfort here I've been playing for at least 7 years in a row, from my 21st birthday to now 28 years old.
I spent a year and a half in the US, on a J1 Visa but couldn't stay. I hope this year will be the one, when in Chicago on a business trip, a taxi driver told me he got it on its 10th entry, I guess I'll have to be persistent.
Good luck to you all, I know if you're on this kind of forum it means you really need it, we really want it, it's tough when you have a dream and are stuck.
All the best from France.
I've been playing for at least 7 years in a row, from my 21st birthday to now 28 years old.I spent a year and a half in the US, on a J1 Visa but couldn't stay. I hope this year will be the one, when in Chicago on a business trip, a taxi driver told me he got it on its 10th entry, I guess I'll have to be persistent.
Good luck to you all, I know if you're on this kind of forum it means you really need it, we really want it, it's tough when you have a dream and are stuck.
All the best from France.
Rainman246
New Member
SERBinUK
Registered Users (C)
Makes no difference, every year the chances are only relevant to that year's draw - it doesn't take in the count how many time have one applied previously.
Rainman246
New Member
Correct. Each year you have an independent chance of winning the lottery and therefore the same likelihood as anybody else that has entered.
However, if the lottery runs every year for your life and you enter every year vs only in 1-year then you have a higher probability of winning. It is like flipping a fair coin to try and get a head. Each time you flip the coin you have a 50% chance of landing a head. However flipping the coin twice you have a 75% chance of getting at least one head. Three times you have a 87.5% of getting at least one head. And so on...
The comment is no longer on here but somebody mentioned my table was BS. If that stands for Bernoulli statistics then you are correct
However, if the lottery runs every year for your life and you enter every year vs only in 1-year then you have a higher probability of winning. It is like flipping a fair coin to try and get a head. Each time you flip the coin you have a 50% chance of landing a head. However flipping the coin twice you have a 75% chance of getting at least one head. Three times you have a 87.5% of getting at least one head. And so on...
The comment is no longer on here but somebody mentioned my table was BS. If that stands for Bernoulli statistics then you are correct
ZaireCongo
New Member
Correct. Each year you have an independent chance of winning the lottery and therefore the same likelihood as anybody else that has entered.
However, if the lottery runs every year for your life and you enter every year vs only in 1-year then you have a higher probability of winning. It is like flipping a fair coin to try and get a head. Each time you flip the coin you have a 50% chance of landing a head. However flipping the coin twice you have a 75% chance of getting at least one head. Three times you have a 87.5% of getting at least one head. And so on...
The comment is no longer on here but somebody mentioned my table was BS. If that stands for Bernoulli statistics then you are correct
I like the Bernoulli Statistics part! Almost puntastic!
Pierre82
Well-Known Member
Pierre82
Well-Known Member
Hey people! I just wanted to wish the best of luck to everyone here. This is at least 17th time that I am in the draw, as far as I can track. Crazy, I know. Normally, the draw would be announced today at noon ET but this time it is delayed for 15 days for well known reasons. I consider these 15 days as a bonus time to keep my hopes and dreams still alive
Good luck once again for you this year @Man of Constant Sorrow
Xarthisius
Well-Known Member
That's a common misconception regarding both tossing a coin and DV lottery chances. It's exactly the opposite. Each consecutive lottery entry that you didn't win **decreases** your overall chances of winning during your lifetime. Same with tossing a coin. So, while your probabilities are correct, you're interpreting them wrong...
Rainman246
New Member
Your point is correct but it does not contradict my point.
I was stating that the more DV lotteries that you enter in a given lifetime, the higher the theoretic probability of winning one of them.
No misconceptions here
I was stating that the more DV lotteries that you enter in a given lifetime, the higher the theoretic probability of winning one of them.
No misconceptions here
Man of Constant Sorrow
Member
Thanks Pierre, best of luck to you as well!
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Correct. Each year you have an independent chance of winning the lottery and therefore the same likelihood as anybody else that has entered.
However, if the lottery runs every year for your life and you enter every year vs only in 1-year then you have a higher probability of winning. It is like flipping a fair coin to try and get a head. Each time you flip the coin you have a 50% chance of landing a head. However flipping the coin twice you have a 75% chance of getting at least one head. Three times you have a 87.5% of getting at least one head. And so on...
The comment is no longer on here but somebody mentioned my table was BS. If that stands for Bernoulli statistics then you are correct
Perhaps you can redo the table with just the actual probabilities of a win in each year, whether using latest or average data, rather than including columns which are totally unrealistic like 10% - or some poor sod is going to read it and think if they enter often enough they will have an 80% chance of being selected, and then start complaining loudly about sinister people pulling the strings behind the scenes....
Rainman246
New Member
Good point....this is more likely going to confuse things rather than help them. I was merely trying to point out the expected probability of winning the lottery by number of times entering. This was in response to some of the earlier comments.
An example would be: Europe has an approximate selection of 1% (admittedly the source for this is Wikipedia :-S). If you were to enter 15 lotteries with a 1% chance of being selected in each lottery you would have an expected probability of being selected at least once of approx 14%. That is still an 86% likelihood of not winning at all.
Please remove the table if you feel it does more harm than good.