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DV 2019 Will Be Soon!!!!!!!

Rainman246 said:
Good point....this is more likely going to confuse things rather than help them. I was merely trying to point out the expected probability of winning the lottery by number of times entering. This was in response to some of the earlier comments.

An example would be: Europe has an approximate selection of 1% (admittedly the source for this is Wikipedia :-S). If you were to enter 15 lotteries with a 1% chance of being selected in each lottery you would have an expected probability of being selected at least once of approx 14%. That is still an 86% likelihood of not winning at all.

Please remove the table if you feel it does more harm than good.
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Last year around 115k (including derivatives) were selected out of 14.7m principal entries/23.1m with derivatives. It’s annoying that they don’t give official primary case number selectees but it’s closer to 0.5% than 1%, on average, so more like 7%. (Of course a lot of those selected won’t be able to get visas even if they want to, but that’s secondary to the chances of selection). So, still a much, much, much higher probability of not being selected than being selected, even if you enter every single year of your life.
 
Rainman246 said:
An example would be: Europe has an approximate selection of 1% (admittedly the source for this is Wikipedia :-S). If you were to enter 15 lotteries with a 1% chance of being selected in each lottery you would have an expected probability of being selected at least once of approx 14%. That is still an 86% likelihood of not winning at all.
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Your math is wrong.

Let's say 100 people enter each year and 1 is selected.
So you have 1/100 = 1% chance of winning.

If you enter the lottery 2 times, 200 people have entered and 2 have been selected.
So you have 2/200 = 1/100 = 1% chance of winning.
 
Claus Larsen said:
Your math is wrong.
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It isn't my math...I am just applying something somebody far smarter than me came up with. I can't really go through a math lesson to explain. If you are interested then look up 'Bernoulli trials'.

You are essentially saying that if you enter just once you have a 1% probability of ever winning and if you enter 50 times you have a 1% probability of ever winning. This is simply not true....and if it was then you may as well stop trying after your first entry.

The best example is flipping a coin to try and get a head (lets say a head is a success). We know that the first flip there is a 1/2 = 50% chance of success. We know the second flip there is a 1/2 = 50% chance of getting a head. Your logic suggests that we can add these to achieve a 2/4 = 50% chance. However, using common sense we know that it is more likely to get a head by flipping the coin twice rather than once. There is in fact a 75% chance of getting a head (HH, TH, HT, TT). You are correct in that you would stop attempting to enter the lottery after winning so the realized odds of winning would end up being different than my table suggests. But not the theoretic probability.
 
Rainman246 said:
It isn't my math...I am just applying something somebody far smarter than me came up with. I can't really go through a math lesson to explain. If you are interested then look up 'Bernoulli trials'.

You are essentially saying that if you enter just once you have a 1% probability of ever winning and if you enter 50 times you have a 1% probability of ever winning. This is simply not true....and if it was then you may as well stop trying after your first entry.

The best example is flipping a coin to try and get a head (lets say a head is a success). We know that the first flip there is a 1/2 = 50% chance of success. We know the second flip there is a 1/2 = 50% chance of getting a head. Your logic suggests that we can add these to achieve a 2/4 = 50% chance. However, using common sense we know that it is more likely to get a head by flipping the coin twice rather than once. There is in fact a 75% chance of getting a head (HH, TH, HT, TT). You are correct in that you would stop attempting to enter the lottery after winning so the realized odds of winning would end up being different than my table suggests. But not the theoretic probability.
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Good old stats, so complex isn't it ! But yes what you are saying is what we were taught at uni. Is depends on the question you are asking.
P(X=1)=(20/1)*(0.01)^1*(0.99)^19= 0.1652. So if you ask "if I entered the diversity visa lottery 20 times in my life, what is the probability that i will win at least once?" the answer is 0.1652, so there is a 0.16% chance of winning at least once out of those 20 times that I entered. But each year that doesn't change your chances of winning, every year you have a 1% chance of winning (based on the 1/100 odds). So if I do this for me in Oceania it would look like this: P(X=1)=(20/1)*(0.06)^1*(0.94)^19= 0.3703, so if I enter the lottery 20 times in my life, the probability of me winning at least once is 0.3703, meaning I have a 37% chance of winning at least once if I entered the lottery 20 times in my life. Thats assuming I have a 6% change if winning each year? My maths may be wrong, did stats over summer school so its no longer fresh in my mind, so correct me if I've made a mistake :)
 
6% probability, huh? I guess that doesnt take into account the overselection in many years that sees so many never going current.
Where do your 1/100 odds come from btw? Not the published data. More like half that, so you can adjust your first equation for sure. Tiny, huh?

None of you would jump over a cliff if your chances of survival were the same as winning the lottery, even repeatedly. So I still domt understand why so many people “expect” to win.
 
SusieQQQ said:
6% probability, huh? I guess that doesnt take into account the overselection in many years that sees so many never going current.
Where do your 1/100 odds come from btw? Not the published data. More like half that, so you can adjust your first equation for sure. Tiny, huh?

None of you would jump over a cliff if your chances of survival were the same as winning the lottery, even repeatedly. So I still domt understand why so many people “expect” to win.
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I was more assuming with my figures, I don't have time to go and find the actual figures as they are irrelevant to me. But okay thanks for sharing your information, I will recalculate for you; P(X=1)=(20/1)*(0.005)^1*(0.995)^19= 0.0909. So if I enter the diversity visa 20 times in my life with a 0.005% chance of being selected, what is the probability that I will win at least once? P=0.09. 9% chance.

Also as for "going current", thats an entire question on its own; "If i get selected for the diversity visa in 2019, what is the probability of my case number going valid?". Im only speaking stats, you have to be very specific with what your asking. If you provide the information I can work it all out :)
 
SusieQQQ said:
6% probability, huh? I guess that doesnt take into account the overselection in many years that sees so many never going current.
Where do your 1/100 odds come from btw? Not the published data. More like half that, so you can adjust your first equation for sure. Tiny, huh?

None of you would jump over a cliff if your chances of survival were the same as winning the lottery, even repeatedly. So I still domt understand why so many people “expect” to win.
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You got me curious to look into the actual odds of winning based on my country. I can only work out 2013, 2014, and 2015. However, based on my country (New Zealand) the total percent of diversity visa winners for 2013, 2014, and 2015 was: 2013: 9.78%, 2014:10.29%, 2015: 6.90%. Odds are better than I predicted ! https://travel.state.gov/content/tr...-entry/diversity-visa-program-statistics.html. I know that the lottery isn't drawn based on countries, it regions; however, these statistics are not irrelevant either
 
Mandy-Leigh said:
I was more assuming with my figures, I don't have time to go and find the actual figures as they are irrelevant to me. But okay thanks for sharing your information, I will recalculate for you; P(X=1)=(20/1)*(0.005)^1*(0.995)^19= 0.0909. So if I enter the diversity visa 20 times in my life with a 0.005% chance of being selected, what is the probability that I will win at least once? P=0.09. 9% chance.

Also as for "going current", thats an entire question on its own; "If i get selected for the diversity visa in 2019, what is the probability of my case number going valid?". Im only speaking stats, you have to be very specific with what your asking. If you provide the information I can work it all out :)
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Haha I don’t need you to work it out, and I could work the revised prob out in my head from your formula, lol but yes the point is the less than 1% chance of winning in 20 years ...which is not hugely different from your chance of winning in each individual, independent, randomly selected year.
Btw exactly as I said to the other dude, please make it very obvious if you are using thumbsuck data because people read your numbers without understanding your assumptions and then think it is a real number they can base stuff on. I’m guessing neither of you have had to do much explaining of statistical data to lay audiences before,
 
Mandy-Leigh said:
You got me curious to look into the actual odds of winning based on my country. I can only work out 2013, 2014, and 2015. However, based on my country (New Zealand) the total percent of diversity visa winners for 2013, 2014, and 2015 was: 2013: 9.78%, 2014:10.29%, 2015: 6.90%. Odds are better than I predicted ! https://travel.state.gov/content/tr...-entry/diversity-visa-program-statistics.html. I know that the lottery isn't drawn based on countries, it regions; however, these statistics are not irrelevant either
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Oh, so you do have time for actual data, lol
I don’t have time to go check your numbers though so just to check that you are comparing apples with apples - not taking total selectees out of only primary entrants?
 
SusieQQQ said:
Haha I don’t need you to work it out, and I could work the revised prob out in my head from your formula, lol but yes the point is the less than 1% chance of winning in 20 years ...which is not hugely different from your chance of winning in each individual, independent, randomly selected year.
Btw exactly as I said to the other dude, please make it very obvious if you are using thumbsuck data because people read your numbers without understanding your assumptions and then think it is a real number they can base stuff on. I’m guessing neither of you have had to do much explaining of statistical data to lay audiences before,
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I wasn't working it out for you, as you said in your second paragraph, just making sure that its a real number and not an assumption for other readers. But im not sure where your getting the less than 1% chance from? "If I enter the diversity visa 20 times in my life with a 0.005% chance of being selected, what is the probability that I will win at least once? P=0.09" Thats a 9% change. However, each year you have a less than 1% chance of being selected. Im genuinely interested. As for explaining statistical data, no, i'm an undergraduate student still (but I already mentioned this).
 
SusieQQQ said:
Oh, so you do have time for actual data, lol
I don’t have time to go check your numbers though so just to check that you are comparing apples with apples - not taking total selectees out of only primary entrants?
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I have time if it relevant to me, I took my figures from "total", so entrants and derivatives combined. Correct me if this is wrong
 
Mandy-Leigh said:
I have time if it relevant to me, I took my figures from "total", so entrants and derivatives combined. Correct me if this is wrong
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Yes that is wrong. The chance of selection should be based on entries, not the added derivatives included.

Further, OC is not representative of all regions - the chance of selection there is much higher than other regions. However, experience has shown than the chance of selection for OC if you care about going current too, about 5% is about right. More than that, and the region gets overselected.

The chance in other regions is around 1% or less. In some countries that are limited, the chance is MUCH smaller - about 0.1 or o.2%
 
wow!!! so whose formula do i use to win the lottery from all the above statistics and probabilities..........guys its a blady LOTTERY final lets wait for the results simple :rolleyes::p:confused:;)
 
The keyword is “THIS”

“THIS” year we have 1% chance of getting selected

In “THIS” coin flip i have a 50% chance of getting heads..

Lets stop this bs pls..and just wish good luck to each othr to get selected. :)

Good luck to you all.
 
Am I the only one here who is constantly thinking about this?

I very well know this is a lottery and all that.

But my freaking mind do all these plans to do after getting selected.

I know this is sad. This is still my second time applying.

Folks here， who hv been there (trying more than few years now), how do you stop this?
 
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