DV 2018 All Selectees
- Thread starter Sm1smom
- Start date
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Hi all,
Because of some disagreements with my current employer, it's possible I'll change job and even city if something better comes up (right now i'm just testing waters, I haven't quitted my job yet). One question. If my current situation changes (job and/or address), in one month, 2 or even 6. Will I have to contact KCC to reopen my file?....or it's not that necessary and I can inform the embassy of the update of my situation during the interview?
Thanks in advance.
Because of some disagreements with my current employer, it's possible I'll change job and even city if something better comes up (right now i'm just testing waters, I haven't quitted my job yet). One question. If my current situation changes (job and/or address), in one month, 2 or even 6. Will I have to contact KCC to reopen my file?....or it's not that necessary and I can inform the embassy of the update of my situation during the interview?
Thanks in advance.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
It hasn't even happened yet and might not?! How can it be 'very important '?!
Anyway it doesn't really matter which optio.
Many thanks! In 9-12 months many things can happen and I was worried I had to update DS-260 continually.
Nubecita
New Member
Please help me, I am new
Hi everyone!!!
I Asm seleccted for the green card 2018, my case Number is 36XXX I think is the Most high I ever seen for this year in some forum, can I have a little hope to have the enterview?
If I take a count that the first Numbers called in october are only 2,600 and another years beggins with 8.000 I am dissapointed, what do you Think @Britsimon and @mom?
Hi everyone!!!
I Asm seleccted for the green card 2018, my case Number is 36XXX I think is the Most high I ever seen for this year in some forum, can I have a little hope to have the enterview?
If I take a count that the first Numbers called in october are only 2,600 and another years beggins with 8.000 I am dissapointed, what do you Think @Britsimon and @mom?
Dunamis
Member
December Probably.
Sm1smom
Super Moderator
Read this:
http://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-basic-questions/
p.s. Please do not duplicate posts. Post once and wait for a response. Your other post/Thread has been deleted.
My case number is for OC CN19XX so it's obviously uncertain this number will get chosen.
I am wondering what is the latest I should wait to submit my DS-260 I have several trips planned to the US the latest one being in April 2018 and I am wondering if I submit my DS-260 before this date if it will cause problems arriving in the US on an ESTA. Could I arrive in the US in April and submit my DS-260 then, should I wait until after I leave the states (this would be 3 months later so mid July) or should I not undertake my trip in April and submit the DS-260 earlier?
What would be best?
I am wondering what is the latest I should wait to submit my DS-260 I have several trips planned to the US the latest one being in April 2018 and I am wondering if I submit my DS-260 before this date if it will cause problems arriving in the US on an ESTA. Could I arrive in the US in April and submit my DS-260 then, should I wait until after I leave the states (this would be 3 months later so mid July) or should I not undertake my trip in April and submit the DS-260 earlier?
What would be best?
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
If you only submit your DS260 mid July next year you're almost guaranteed to totally miss out on DV2018. September interview dates are set out in early July, and are only done for processed DS260s; and it usually takes at least 2 months to process. So probably the latest date you could send a DS for an interview in FY18 is early May, and even that might be pushing it (as you'll then hit the really busy time at KCC just after the DV2019 results are announced). Admittedly with that number this might be a moot argument anyway.
Thank you that is a great point, I almost over looked the opening of DV2019 so before May seems like it would be best. Would early April be too late? If I do it earlier it is likely I will have trouble arriving on an ESTA in April is that correct?
I would really like to be over in the States and have looked into doing a 4 year degree too which would start from fall (Aug/Sept 2018) So I had planned to submit this application for F1 Visa early in 2018. Will be travelling to the US in April and then would return on the F1 later in the year. I am wondering if submitting the DS260 is going to negatively impact these plans.
Would it be best just to wait until around Jan/Feb and see where the numbers are up to at what stage will it be more likely to predict if that case number OQ CN19XX will be eligible for an interview.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Honestly - I think the case number will make all this academic. OC is pretty easy to predict - OC19XX has little to no chance. Mathematically, based on data from the past several years - no chance at all. The only chance is something very dramatic, like several hundred OC selectees with cases under 1500 gather together on a cruise, and Trump fires a missile at the ship because he thinks the ratings would be favorable. Other than that, you can safely delay your DS260 submission until early June (maybe after the VB published in June). If the number for OC at that point is within 150 of your number, you could take a punt.
I have known a few cases with JULY submission (even one or two in August) that somehow got scheduled. But this year - OC will have maxed out and your lack of DS260 submission will mean you aren't even on their radar - so they will schedule the cases they have and no more.
Amazing thank you. The last thing I want to do is submit the DS260 to early and then have it compromise chances of F1 visa when I wouldn't not be getting interviewed anyway. Hopefully I get a lower CN in future draws.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Here is the Math for OC.
The derivative rate for OC is around 1.6 or a little higher.
We know the max case is around 2600 (based on feedback - but proven shortly in the math).
We know the pre-announcement disqualification rate (holes) for OC is about 7% or a little less (based on recent years).
So - 2600 case numbers, of which 7% get disqualified would give 2418 cases that have been given 1NLs.
2418 x 1.6 = 3868 which works out pretty darn spot on to the 3863 they announced as selectees - so the numbers are working as normal.
Using DV2015 OC response rate and the issued rate can show roughly how many visas they would need to serve the the 3863 people selected.
Response rate from DV2015 - 46%
Issued rate from DV2015 - 72.75%
So - that means only 46% of the 2418 cases (calculated above) will respond - 1112 cases.
72.75% of the 1112 would be approved (if all were interviewed) based on DV2015 approval rate - 834 cases (with 1.6 people per case).
The derivative rate grows a little during the year (babies, and marriage) - so the 834 cases would need at least 1400 visas for everyone to be happy.
The quota for OC is around 800.
Since the 1400 would be the amount of visas approved over the entire case number range, we can divide the 1400 by 26 to find out how many visas are approved per 100 case numbers issued in the first place. That comes out at 53.8.
So - 53.8 approvals per 100 cases numbers selected.
Now divide the quota of 800 by 53.8 (x 100) and you would find an estimated cutoff. 1487 is that number. Spookily close to the cutoffs in previous years - because we have used numbers from previous years to get this number. It just proves out the logic and tells us that if responses and approval rate is similar to previous years, the cutoff will be similar too.
So that is why I am talking about cruise ships.
The derivative rate for OC is around 1.6 or a little higher.
We know the max case is around 2600 (based on feedback - but proven shortly in the math).
We know the pre-announcement disqualification rate (holes) for OC is about 7% or a little less (based on recent years).
So - 2600 case numbers, of which 7% get disqualified would give 2418 cases that have been given 1NLs.
2418 x 1.6 = 3868 which works out pretty darn spot on to the 3863 they announced as selectees - so the numbers are working as normal.
Using DV2015 OC response rate and the issued rate can show roughly how many visas they would need to serve the the 3863 people selected.
Response rate from DV2015 - 46%
Issued rate from DV2015 - 72.75%
So - that means only 46% of the 2418 cases (calculated above) will respond - 1112 cases.
72.75% of the 1112 would be approved (if all were interviewed) based on DV2015 approval rate - 834 cases (with 1.6 people per case).
The derivative rate grows a little during the year (babies, and marriage) - so the 834 cases would need at least 1400 visas for everyone to be happy.
The quota for OC is around 800.
Since the 1400 would be the amount of visas approved over the entire case number range, we can divide the 1400 by 26 to find out how many visas are approved per 100 case numbers issued in the first place. That comes out at 53.8.
So - 53.8 approvals per 100 cases numbers selected.
Now divide the quota of 800 by 53.8 (x 100) and you would find an estimated cutoff. 1487 is that number. Spookily close to the cutoffs in previous years - because we have used numbers from previous years to get this number. It just proves out the logic and tells us that if responses and approval rate is similar to previous years, the cutoff will be similar too.
So that is why I am talking about cruise ships.
Hello,
I have a little issue and would appreciate your advice and thoughts.
Background information:
I am in the US on a J1 which is valid until 2020.
I am doing CP.
I processed my DS260 early May.
I am current for a November interview at the US Embassy in Paris with a case number that is very close to the cut-off number.
My son’s passport expires on June 12, 2018. This means that after the interview we must re-enter the US before December 12, 2017 (6 months before his passport expires)
My issue:
I was thinking about renewing my son’s passport at the French Embassy in Los Angeles, but the French government does not allow you to keep your old passport.
The problem is that my son’s J2 stamp is in his passport.
Also, my son’s DS-2019 is still valid but older than two years old, and since they changed the format of the DS-2019 last year, it needs to be renewed if we have to reenter the US on the J1 in case the interview does not go well.
Questions:
1/ Knowing that my case number is close to the cut-off number, does it mean that I am more likely to be interviewed in late rather early November?
2/ Should I renew my son’s passport now, knowing that I will not be able to keep his old passport for the interview?
3/ If I renew my son’s DS-2019 (and mine too) now, will it interfere with the DV process?
4/ Do you have any advice on how to proceed?
Thank you
I have a little issue and would appreciate your advice and thoughts.
Background information:
I am in the US on a J1 which is valid until 2020.
I am doing CP.
I processed my DS260 early May.
I am current for a November interview at the US Embassy in Paris with a case number that is very close to the cut-off number.
My son’s passport expires on June 12, 2018. This means that after the interview we must re-enter the US before December 12, 2017 (6 months before his passport expires)
My issue:
I was thinking about renewing my son’s passport at the French Embassy in Los Angeles, but the French government does not allow you to keep your old passport.
The problem is that my son’s J2 stamp is in his passport.
Also, my son’s DS-2019 is still valid but older than two years old, and since they changed the format of the DS-2019 last year, it needs to be renewed if we have to reenter the US on the J1 in case the interview does not go well.
Questions:
1/ Knowing that my case number is close to the cut-off number, does it mean that I am more likely to be interviewed in late rather early November?
2/ Should I renew my son’s passport now, knowing that I will not be able to keep his old passport for the interview?
3/ If I renew my son’s DS-2019 (and mine too) now, will it interfere with the DV process?
4/ Do you have any advice on how to proceed?
Thank you
Britsimon
Super Moderator
1. No
2. You should request the old passport be returned because it has a current visa in it.
3. No.
4. Your choice.