• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

DV 2016 OC Selectees

Sorry, yet another question - this one might be a bit abstract, so I'm not sure if anyone will know the answer to this. I'm estranged from one of my parents, so they aren't listed on my birth certificate - and I'm wondering if I would still need to put them down in the parents section of the DS-260 since there isn't actual any legal evidence that they are my parent. I've filled in two DS-160's in the past for student visas and I'm not 100% sure of what I did on those forms so now I'm worried about the consistency of the info the U.S. will have on me already. :confused: If no one here has any advice, would I contact the KCC about this kind of issue?
 
If they are not on your birth certificate, you can leave the parent details out I think (wiser heads will correct me if I'm wrong).

And don't stop asking questions. Poor @Britsimon had me asking him questions every single day. :) Anything that helps us to be confident of our application going into interview is a good thing.
 
I reckon so too. A 9xx number is a superb number in my experience. :)

There were 100,000 in the ill fated 2012 draw. 9xx went current in April. And since 2002, it's always gone current.
 
guestgulkan said:
9XX chance of getting an interview: 100%
Click to expand...

:) I was being slightly ironic. (And on second thoughts, I might scrub the sig a little -- newbies probably don't need to see it!)

Anyway, I've been looking over past results and I've found some interesting things. I think you and Emily are right. There's something odd about the 2016 draw: the last time I could find where so few people were selected was the 2007 lottery. For some reason they had case numbers up past 1800 (!), but they went current in August. I'm guessing something similar could happen this time around unless the quota is drastically reduced. I'm speculating, but it's possible someone wants to pull back under 50,000 visas issued, so they've returned to old methods. I guess we'll have to wait for the numbers to find out for sure.

And there still the possibility of another 20,000 people being draw later on.

GG: I'm burning a stick of incense for the upcoming VB. But the more numbers I crunch (because I'm tragic), the more I'm guessing you're in like Flynn regardless.
 
EmilyW said:
I reckon so too. A 9xx number is a superb number in my experience. :)

There were 100,000 in the ill fated 2012 draw. 9xx went current in April. And since 2002, it's always gone current.
Click to expand...

The only non-current years I've managed to find for OC are 2000 and 2014. (2015 will join them soon.) Did you find others?
 
violetion said:
Sorry, yet another question - this one might be a bit abstract, so I'm not sure if anyone will know the answer to this. I'm estranged from one of my parents, so they aren't listed on my birth certificate - and I'm wondering if I would still need to put them down in the parents section of the DS-260 since there isn't actual any legal evidence that they are my parent. I've filled in two DS-160's in the past for student visas and I'm not 100% sure of what I did on those forms so now I'm worried about the consistency of the info the U.S. will have on me already. :confused: If no one here has any advice, would I contact the KCC about this kind of issue?
Click to expand...

I'd contact KCC about this one.
 
2000 and (obviously) 2014 and 2015 are the years OC did not go current.

I'll try and dig out how many selectees there were throughout the years overall. My spreadsheet has the OC selectees for each year since 2005 but I'd be keen to see if we have a similar number to $85k anywhere in the last 10-15 years or so as that might be a good point of comparison for us.

Stay put kids.... I have had a few Baileys tonight so the posts might get nonsensical at some point.
 
EmilyW said:
2000 and (obviously) 2014 and 2015 are the years OC did not go current.

I'll try and dig out how many selectees there were throughout the years overall. My spreadsheet has the OC selectees for each year since 2005 but I'd be keen to see if we have a similar number to $85k anywhere in the last 10-15 years or so as that might be a good point of comparison for us.

Stay put kids.... I have had a few Baileys tonight so the posts might get nonsensical at some point.
Click to expand...

DV2007 had 82K. Scroll down and you'll see the numbers. Crazy to note that there were fewer than half the Aussies selected that year than in 2015.

Edit: fewer than a third!
 
Ok, here is what I've found so far

2011 - 100k entrants in total - OC went current in August
2012 - 100k entrants in total - OC went current in June (but that year was a weird one)
2013 - 105k entrants in total - OC went current in September

All signs point to @connectedspace being golden.
 
connectedspace said:
Anyway, I've been looking over past results and I've found some interesting things. I think you and Emily are right. There's something odd about the 2016 draw: the last time I could find where so few people were selected was the 2007 lottery. For some reason they had case numbers up past 1800 (!), but they went current in August. I'm guessing something similar could happen this time around unless the quota is drastically reduced. I'm speculating, but it's possible someone wants to pull back under 50,000 visas issued, so they've returned to old methods. I guess we'll have to wait for the numbers to find out for sure.
Click to expand...

I've got a couple of theories on this:
  • Last year they were "experimenting" with the DS-260 and weren't sure how it would affect the response rate. Now they have their statistics they've selected exactly what they need.
  • Maybe the DS-260 processing is onerous. If they over-select they get alot of DS-260s. By underselecting it may save alot of resources.
I don't see why they'd want to pull back under 50,000. The DV quota is set in law.

connectedspace said:
GG: I'm burning a stick of incense for the upcoming VB. But the more numbers I crunch (because I'm tragic), the more I'm guessing you're in like Flynn regardless.
Click to expand...

Phew! glad to hear it mate. I've got a sort of spreadsheet I fiddle around with to try and guess the final CN. My current feeling is.. 1475.
 
You know, in all the Forums I haven't seen a single high number. Maybe we should start a high number thread. They have one each year.
 
EmilyW said:
In short, there has not been a year in the last 15 where a sub-1000 number has not gone current. Break out your miniature American flags, @connectedspace.
Click to expand...

I'm leaning more towards this one at present:

450px-Flag_of_Chicago%2C_Illinois.svg.png


I like my cities gloomy and my architecture grand. To think I was hell bent on NY for so many years. Must be gettin old.

Edit: and just to get the thread back on track: if you're a newbie just arriving, @Britsimon 's website and the links in @EmilyW 's sig will pretty much sort you out with the things you need to do to get through.

Edit 2: GG, we could be seeing no high case numbers simply because there aren't any. I'm inferring from past VB numbers that in years with low numbers of selectees, the OC case numbers didn't go much past 900/1000. If we have a high case density this year (few holes), it's conceivable that the 900s are the upper end.
 
Last edited:
connectedspace said:
I'm leaning more towards this one at present:

450px-Flag_of_Chicago%2C_Illinois.svg.png


I like my cities gloomy and my architecture grand. To think I was hell bent on NY for so many years. Must be gettin old.

Edit: and just to get the thread back on track: if you're a newbie just arriving, @Britsimon 's website and the links in @EmilyW 's sig will pretty much sort you out with the things you need to do to get through.

Edit 2: GG, we could be seeing no high case numbers simply because there aren't any. I'm inferring from past VB numbers that in years with low numbers of selectees, the OC case numbers didn't go much past 900/1000. If we have a high case density this year (few holes), it's conceivable that the 900s are the upper end.
Click to expand...

I'm thinking similar on case numbers. The AF ones this year I've seen are all low too.
 
Hi all, just thought I'd drop by the forums and let you all know I didn't get selected for DV2106 (other Oceania thread locked).
Just wanted to say thank you to everyone for all their forum posts, I know I haven't posted much but it's been interesting and helpful just reading through the threads and learning from others.
Best of luck to those that were selected, and fingers crossed for better luck for me in DV2017!
I will be filling out the application in October for DV2017 and as I'm under 30, moving on to Plan B, heading over to the UK on a youth mobility visa in November/December. I've never been to Europe before, so it will be an interesting experience!
Thanks again to all of you, and I'll still pop by on the odd occasion to read up on how everyone is doing!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top