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DV-2015 winners from Asia with CN 10,000+

Britsimon said:
Yup. KCC will have better information than we do about Iranian AP timelines They will have to make predictions of course - but they will be able to do that far more accurately than we can.
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EURO2014 said:
Well said, FSW2015, and we wish you and all the other folks from ROA the very best of luck! Some will surely make it, for others this specific opportunity might slip away, however there will be others to come along. Lastly, I am pretty sure we'll not have to wait until the 15th, I'd personally start looking for final VB 2015 numbers as of July 9th...
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Thank you both! Will always be grateful for the amount of help and hope you're giving people!
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Oh no, I hope I didn't contribute to your stress...
Always think coming here is like going to a bar, you will get drunk one way or another.
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Of course not, my friend. Better stay in reality than live in dreams of wishful thinking.
LOL! Now that you mention it, I feel like going to a bar, though! ;)
 
Britsimon said:
I'm not saying they are not both part of the same outage what I am saying is that the biometric issue is not the basis of the online forms issue.
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Let me make sure I understand what you are saying:
1) the biometric issue did not cause the online form issue, despite they happen at the same time.
2) they still have issue on the online form which you think is the DS260 and I think is a combo profile (DS260+eDV) and they are still doing interview, completely different than 11 months ago.
Did I get what you mean?
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Let me make sure I understand what you are saying:
1) the biometric issue did not cause the online form issue, despite they happen at the same time.
2) they still have issue on the online form which you think is the DS260 and I think is a combo profile (DS260+eDV) and they are still doing interview, completely different than 11 months ago.
Did I get what you mean?
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Oh man. I am having terrible visions of dead horses....

OK - one last time.

When they say things you need to read them carefully and don't read things they haven't said.

They refer to problems with the "online immigrant visa application". Now let's look at the CEAC page to see what that could possibly mean. Here is how they describe the DS260
  • DS-260, Online Immigrant Visa and Alien Registration Application
So - OK they didn't use its full title, in the announcement you quoted but it is CLEAR they are referring to the DS260 form.

Now, while you are in that CEAC page, click the link. There is a dirty great big message saying they have a problem with that form.

Now - you are talking about a combo profile thingy. There is no evidence that exists as a combo and considering 95% if immigration uses the DS260 and NOT the eDV I think it is a fair bet that those two things are not technically linked. So - two things, related as a file, but not built around the DS260 that was only implemented this year...

We know there is no biometric information contained on the DS260 (I would have thought that was enough to stop the conversation - but oh well). We also know that biometrics are collected at CP interviews and ahead of the interview for AoS.

Now, because the bit you posted had several sentences we can read it again and understand it. They are saying there is a problem with the DS260. Then they are saying there is a problem with the biometrics. Two things - possibly (most likely) caused at the same time by the same outage (which by the way explains perfectly why the CEAC system was partially hit and got fixed at a different time and why the DS160s came back earlier than DS260.

In IT terms this is a hodge podge of systems all pointing to a centralized system (which is NOT the DS260). A centralized failure impacted different systems, some systems have taken longer to recover than others.

I really hope we don't have to discuss this again....
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Could that be due to what they've "done" or perceived to have "done" in the US?
For example, someone cleared check and enter as a student on F visa can study physics and therefore be considered on tech alert (counter proliferation) and when the next touchpoint (e.g. GC) comes, they are subject to more checks based on what they did(in this case study) in the US?
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Not necessarily. Majority came in on H1B visa, never did any schooling in the U.S., got sponsored for their GC by their employer.

Anyway, the purpose of my initial post was simply to show that having received a previous visa or lived in the U.S. does not necessarily preclude one from being placed on AP. It's one of the reasons most people who opt to process AOS take into consideration as the possibility of being stuck on AP outside the U.S. is real.
 
Britsimon said:
Oh man. I am having terrible visions of dead horses....

OK - one last time.

When they say things you need to read them carefully and don't read things they haven't said.

They refer to problems with the "online immigrant visa application". Now let's look at the CEAC page to see what that could possibly mean. Here is how they describe the DS260
  • DS-260, Online Immigrant Visa and Alien Registration Application
So - OK they didn't use its full title, in the announcement you quoted but it is CLEAR they are referring to the DS260 form.

Now, while you are in that CEAC page, click the link. There is a dirty great big message saying they have a problem with that form.

Now - you are talking about a combo profile thingy. There is no evidence that exists as a combo and considering 95% if immigration uses the DS260 and NOT the eDV I think it is a fair bet that those two things are not technically linked. So - two things, related as a file, but not built around the DS260 that was only implemented this year...

We know there is no biometric information contained on the DS260 (I would have thought that was enough to stop the conversation - but oh well). We also know that biometrics are collected at CP interviews and ahead of the interview for AoS.

Now, because the bit you posted had several sentences we can read it again and understand it. They are saying there is a problem with the DS260. Then they are saying there is a problem with the biometrics. Two things - possibly (most likely) caused at the same time by the same outage (which by the way explains perfectly why the CEAC system was partially hit and got fixed at a different time and why the DS160s came back earlier than DS260.

In IT terms this is a hodge podge of systems all pointing to a centralized system (which is NOT the DS260). A centralized failure impacted different systems, some systems have taken longer to recover than others.

I really hope we don't have to discuss this again....
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We certainly don't have to discuss this again if you don't want to, not going to force you at all.
I said this with all due respect.

1st, I agree with you the online immigrant visa application refers to DS260. I suspect the press release did not reveal all the info.
Why? If there is a problem with DS260, they won't be performing interview as we see 11 months ago. Again, I am taking the word from another member based on early DS260 problem.
I can't help but wonder what changed from 11 months ago till now?

2nd, I further suspect the DS260 or eDV is only for us. The post and USCIS probably combined a lot of info into 1 single form (bio, background check results, CPB entry records).
You are correct about the eDV not being used among other classes of immigration. I have only considered the eDV a part of this combined form in terms of the biometric being collected (i.e. photo)
While none of us has any proof (as I said in the original post about speculating), one would think it's logical to have a centralized form.

Now, others might wonder why I want to discuss this in length (which I know you don't, so you can ignore this part). Iranian AP, which I am referring to the security/background check type may depend on biometric info collected at the interview/bio appt.

Having the CCD issue may mean Iranian facing delaying entering into the AP process, which has a direct impact on the ROA visa availability.Not having any bad wishes for Iranian, just speculating based on facts.

Simon, I enjoy talking things out with you and other. As I said, that benefited me and hopefully benefited others in the process.
I am sorry to hear the feeling is not mutual.
 
Sm1smom said:
Not necessarily. Majority came in on H1B visa, never did any schooling in the U.S., got sponsored for their GC by their employer.

Anyway, the purpose of my initial post was simply to show that having received a previous visa or lived in the U.S. does not necessarily preclude one from being placed on AP. It's one of the reasons most people who opt to process AOS take into consideration as the possibility of being stuck on AP outside the U.S. is real.
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Thanks for the different perspective Mom.
From a procedural standpoint, AOS doesl offer security of not being found inadmissible on various grounds compared to CP.

This is probably one of those classified chapter in the USCIS manual, but it would be interesting to know why/when they re-run checks.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
We certainly don't have to discuss this again if you don't want to, not going to force you at all.
I said this with all due respect.

1st, I agree with you the online immigrant visa application refers to DS260. I suspect the press release did not reveal all the info.
Why? If there is a problem with DS260, they won't be performing interview as we see 11 months ago. Again, I am taking the word from another member based on early DS260 problem.
I can't help but wonder what changed from 11 months ago till now?

2nd, I further suspect the DS260 or eDV is only for us. The post and USCIS probably combined a lot of info into 1 single form (bio, background check results, CPB entry records).
You are correct about the eDV not being used among other classes of immigration. I have only considered the eDV a part of this combined form in terms of the biometric being collected (i.e. photo)
While none of us has any proof (as I said in the original post about speculating), one would think it's logical to have a centralized form.

Now, others might wonder why I want to discuss this in length (which I know you don't, so you can ignore this part). Iranian AP, which I am referring to the security/background check type may depend on biometric info collected at the interview/bio appt.

Having the CCD issue may mean Iranian facing delaying entering into the AP process, which has a direct impact on the ROA visa availability.Not having any bad wishes for Iranian, just speculating based on facts.

Simon, I enjoy talking things out with you and other. As I said, that benefited me and hopefully benefited others in the process.
I am sorry to hear the feeling is not mutual.
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The DS260 is used for Family based and Employment based immigration also. That is certain.

The outage was a couple of weeks. I think it is a big stretch to jump to predicting a big impact for Iranian AP.

About not enjoying the interaction - well in this case you have made it very hard work to have to prove something that should be obvious and you are still dancing around like a bumblebee. I feel like I have been 10 rounds with M Ali - and from this latest post you still suspicions that don't stand up to the basic logic test.

I think you are in IT from things you have said, so I can't understand why you can't see the logic. I do ERP systems for a living - I am a developer/solution architect. These things are blindingly obvious and we can guess the back end architecture to their system. The DS260 clearly cannot be the central system - aspects of todays system existed before and continue unchanged, other aspects such as the DS160 exist today and so on.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
That's right, I remember you telling people about scheduling a bio. What I meant is the "interview" process, bio+questioning, but good catch.

That I doubt.
If they only carried out name and DOB check, what's the purpose of the photo?
I am anticipating your answer being fraud - duplicate entries which is valid.
However, they will certainly make sure you are who submitted the for 1-2 yrs back right?

On top, it's hard to imagine they will allow "person of interest" into post and 1 way to do that is to run the photo recognition, would you agree?
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What is the purpose of the eDV photo?
1. Yes, to guard against duplicated entries, no doubt and
2. To confirm the person showing up is indeed the person claiming to be the DV selectee.

The eDV photo is not used to conduct an initial background check AFAIK, the initial background check mostly consist of names and DOB like I initially posted. Anyway, rather than speculating on and on as to what's involved with the security check, you may want to check out the following post and the links in it:

http://forums.immigration.com/threads/an-open-letter-to-simon.321638/page-3#post-2352701
 
Britsimon said:
The DS260 is used for Family based and Employment based immigration also. That is certain.

The outage was a couple of weeks. I think it is a big stretch to jump to predicting a big impact for Iranian AP.

About not enjoying the interaction - well in this case you have made it very hard work to have to prove something that should be obvious and you are still dancing around like a bumblebee. I feel like I have been 10 rounds with M Ali - and from this latest post you still suspicions that don't stand up to the basic logic test.

I think you are in IT from things you have said, so I can't understand why you can't see the logic. I do ERP systems for a living - I am a developer/solution architect. These things are blindingly obvious and we can guess the back end architecture to their system. The DS260 clearly cannot be the central system - aspects of todays system existed before and continue unchanged, other aspects such as the DS160 exist today and so on.
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Oh Simon, now you are giving me too much credit. I don't dare to say I work in IT, I just like to read. No where close to the SAP expert, or I would apply for a H visa in a heart beat.
In fact, I am just someone who crunches number(in a dark corner) for a living. My IT related skill is not worth anyone's salt.

Regarding Iranian AP, the "big" impact I was referring to was more a proportion rather than absolute numbers. From my observation, the approval rate from immediate to 7 months out varies and it shoots up at the 3 month mark. Considering this CCD problem happens at mid-late June, there's an "huge" effect on the 3 month approval pattern 35-45% vs 60% (late June entry to AP = late Sept clearance)

You said my 7950 issued numbers seems low. Well, as other will attest, my calculation is always padded, sometimes by quite a bit.
 
Sm1smom said:
What is the purpose of the eDV photo?
1. Yes, to guard against duplicated entries, no doubt and
2. To confirm the person showing up is indeed the person claiming to be the DV selectee.

The eDV photo is not used to conduct an initial background check AFAIK, the initial background check mostly consist of names and DOB like I initially posted. Anyway, rather than speculating on and on as to what's involved with the security check, you may want to check out the following post and the links in it:

http://forums.immigration.com/threads/an-open-letter-to-simon.321638/page-3#post-2352701
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Very interesting and informative post. Thank you Mom.
Rather than speculating, I wonder how they do #2 To confirm the person...
The eyeball check would be pretty scary if you ask me...
Again, thanks for the info.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Very interesting and informative post. Thank you Mom.
Rather than speculating, I wonder how they do #2 To confirm the person...
The eyeball check would be pretty scary if you ask me...
Again, thanks for the info.
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No secret. They have photo recognition software, which they appear to have been improving over time. You surely don't think they check for duplicate entries by manually comparing all the eDV entry photos, do you? ;)
They run this software also at the interview and I believe CBP officers use the same software to screen all travellers entering to try catch if they are using false passports etc.
 
SusieQQQ said:
No secret. They have photo recognition software, which they appear to have been improving over time. You surely don't think they check for duplicate entries by manually comparing all the eDV entry photos, do you? ;)
They run this software also at the interview and I believe CBP officers use the same software to screen all travellers entering to try catch if they are using false passports etc.
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You bet, got my photo/fingerprint taken multiple times with CBP.
Got some interesting question about the Bristish passport too...ok Britsimon might say I am no Brit since we were a colony, lol
 
Britsimon said:
The problem with me predicting the final is that my predictions over the last few months have been very highly accurate. So - if I predict something, people will believe it (and possibly even take action on it) - and I could be wrong. To me, that is worse than not predicting at all. But you are welcome to your opinion and by all means predict whatever you want.

So to your prediction - you are saying 7950 will be the max number. Seems low...
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Asians are tough, we don't need predictions. Predictions are for OCs.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Oh Simon, now you are giving me too much credit. I don't dare to say I work in IT, I just like to read. No where close to the SAP expert, or I would apply for a H visa in a heart beat.
In fact, I am just someone who crunches number(in a dark corner) for a living. My IT related skill is not worth anyone's salt.

Regarding Iranian AP, the "big" impact I was referring to was more a proportion rather than absolute numbers. From my observation, the approval rate from immediate to 7 months out varies and it shoots up at the 3 month mark. Considering this CCD problem happens at mid-late June, there's an "huge" effect on the 3 month approval pattern 35-45% vs 60% (late June entry to AP = late Sept clearance)

You said my 7950 issued numbers seems low. Well, as other will attest, my calculation is always padded, sometimes by quite a bit.
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The 7950 comment was when I thought that was your max CN prediction...
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Now that Sensei is covering my shift, I can go to bed...
Just a silly joke about the rant....I mean post I made today.
Couldnt resist once you mention the tough part.
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I resigned from predictions attemps back in March. First, the predictions were grim. Second, with so many unknown variables, they are unreliable. Third, I concluded that the knowledge of the likelihood of going current does not change a thing for me.

So I sit in the "dark corner", and I just want my goose to be cooked in peace.
@johnelliot344 , here is another one for you, since you're counting.
 
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