DV-2015 winners from Asia with CN 10,000+

[Anxiety2015]

Thanks for your reply and by the way I miss our discussions and with the other guys as well
Regarding this AP thing, it is really frustrating and unfair, my embassy has been issuing visas smoothly, but suddenly starting from last month, all cases (except one) are being placed automatically under AP. It is really depressing because even if I get current I have no time to clear AP I'm not sure if it's happening in other embassies too.

Last month could be the global CCD problem? Also, CEAC data shows interviewing post, we don't know the chargeability of those put on AP. You might be scaring yourself
At this point, we can do things in our control (get all civil documents ready). Like most others, we've waited more than a year, shouldn't give up now.
And who's to say advanced VB won't change? <this is really wishful thinking...>

 

[Britsimon]

Let me say this first, everyone's effort in this forum (including yours, significantly, I must add) benefited me in this process. For that I thank you, all of you.
Thanks for the kind words about I am logically discussing this.
For sure it is a product of this forum and other forums, your blog and others blogs, CEAC data, FAM... I read a whole lot more than the aforementioned.

I perceived your view about "no news at all" a mixed product. You are blending the "wait and see" with all the other work you've done.

Specifically, "no news at all" that I am referring to is the "wait and see" response. Like I have said before, I can understand your position, but cannot agree to it.

You see, just like a bunch of professors in a university discussing the end of the world scenarios, we can wait and see till the end of the world of course.
However, some will choose to predict or speculate and continue to do so till the very end.
Even if they get it wrong, they did it in an effort of advancing the field. At least the next guy can avoid the wrong path.
When there's no input (i.e.no prediction for final VB), there's no output.

If I were you, I would definitely predict the final cut off.
For those of us who choose to educate ourselves, we have another mind to agree/disagree with.
For those who choose to believe and not do a thing, well, that's their choice.

To sum it up, to each their own.

Yup - to each their own. I made my choice about my prediction, and I have made that position clear.

 

[NaraLB]

Last month could be the global CCD problem? Also, CEAC data shows interviewing post, we don't know the chargeability of those put on AP. You might be scaring yourself
At this point, we can do things in our control (get all civil documents ready). Like most others, we've waited more than a year, shouldn't give up now.
And who's to say advanced VB won't change? <this is really wishful thinking...>

Last month's interviews were all on the 1st and the 2nd before the issues started and they are still not issued til now (the opposite, yesterday more cases were showing AP), and I knew right away that they were on real AP because the principal applicant was AP and the derivatives "Ready"
But you are right, I may be overly worried for nothing. Assuming I get current, I'll make sure everything is in order to avoid AP.

 

[Britsimon]

Anxiety2015, Don't get me wrong, open minded discussion between willing participants is great. However, pressing Britsimon to provide a final number prediction, despite his repeated communication that he won't, including clear and valid arguments why he won't, really is not...

Quite.

I even created a post explaining my rationale - http://britsimonsays.com/why-i-will-not-predict-the-final-cut-off-for-dv2015/

The above post also refers to the am I safe post which pretty much details out the whole thing anyway.

 

[Anxiety2015]

Quite.

I even created a post explaining my rationale - http://britsimonsays.com/why-i-will-not-predict-the-final-cut-off-for-dv2015/

The above post also refers to the am I safe post which pretty much details out the whole thing anyway.

The post and blog I can understand fully and appreciate.
The calculation is well done as well.

The message ringing in my head has been "depends on Iranian AP and wait and see"
Rather than disagreeing, I would probably add/ask what's a reasonable number of Iranian clearing AP? This is what AS hinges as you have put it.

From my own calculation, Iranians (ABD,ANK,YRV post) has about 35% 1st time approval, then another 5% for the next 2 months.
It climbs to about 60% by the 3rd full month and finally reaching about 80% in 7th month and beyond.

So now you can see how I arrive at my estimates.

 

[Anxiety2015]

Last month's interviews were all on the 1st and the 2nd before the issues started and they are still not issued til now (the opposite, yesterday more cases were showing AP), and I knew right away that they were on real AP because the principal applicant was AP and the derivatives "Ready"
But you are right, I may be overly worried for nothing. Assuming I get current, I'll make sure everything is in order to avoid AP.

Some speculation about the CCD pops in my head few days ago, consider the following statement found in the DoS official site:
"We are still experiencing problems with some online immigrant visa application forms. We hope to have a fix in place for this by early next week."
"As posts have been brought back online, we have been processing pending biometric checks."
So what type of biometric checks would appear in your online forms? Certainly not the fingerprint.....it's gotta be the facial recognition since your photo is there.
It is not too far stretch of imagination to conclude these security/backgound checks relies on facial recognition. I wouldn't be surprised if certain nationals are being run on multiple watch list databases based on known photo and intel collected.

 

[Britsimon]

Some speculation about the CCD pops in my head few days ago, consider the following statement found in the DoS official site:
"We are still experiencing problems with some online immigrant visa application forms. We hope to have a fix in place for this by early next week."
"As posts have been brought back online, we have been processing pending biometric checks."
So what type of biometric checks would appear in your online forms? Certainly not the fingerprint.....it's gotta be the facial recognition since your photo is there.
It is not too far stretch of imagination to conclude these security/backgound checks relies on facial recognition. I wouldn't be surprised if certain nationals are being run on multiple watch list databases based on known photo and intel collected.

You are connecting two different issues.

 

[NaraLB]

Some speculation about the CCD pops in my head few days ago, consider the following statement found in the DoS official site:
"We are still experiencing problems with some online immigrant visa application forms. We hope to have a fix in place for this by early next week."
"As posts have been brought back online, we have been processing pending biometric checks."
So what type of biometric checks would appear in your online forms? Certainly not the fingerprint.....it's gotta be the facial recognition since your photo is there.
It is not too far stretch of imagination to conclude these security/backgound checks relies on facial recognition. I wouldn't be surprised if certain nationals are being run on multiple watch list databases based on known photo and intel collected.

Oh yes, very possible of course. Although I remember reading that they're able to collect biometric info but the problem was they couldn't relay them to the central database or something.

 

[Anxiety2015]

Oh yes, very possible of course. Although I remember reading that they're able to collect biometric info but the problem was they couldn't relay them to the central database or something.

Right, of course they can collect. If you have a working fingerprint scanner and a camera, you can for sure collect.
It is after the collection the problem occurs. They must be making security check (think confirming the person in front of the CO is indeed the person who register about 1-2 yr ago, and the check before interview is "relevant")
They claim it's a hardware problem and it affect every post, so the most logical piece of hardwear would be the server in this case.

 

[EURO2014]

I am in 10.4-10.5 k range.
It certainly feels like RoA is substitute on the sitting bench, we fill whatever the main players can't fill the positions.

Yes agreed, this situation is unfortunate indeed and one should expect KCC to find a better and more effective approach for ROA going forward for DV2017 and beyond.

 

[Britsimon]

Yes agreed, this situation is unfortunate indeed and one should expect for KCC to find a better and more effective approach for ROA going forward.

The approach is very effective - if you look at DV2014 it was flawless. The reality is that candidate with a lower number goes first. The fact that some countries have many more entries is something allowed by the laws that control the process, so this isn't something KCC can change...

 

[FSW2015]

I am in 10.4-10.5 k range.
It certainly feels like RoA is substitute on the sitting bench, we fill whatever the main players can't fill the positions.

Exactly my feeling..

 

[EURO2014]

The approach is very effective - if you look at DV2014 it was flawless. The reality is that candidate with a lower number goes first. The fact that some countries have many more entries is something allowed by the laws that control the process, so this isn't something KCC can change...

I think ROA consulate resources for DV applicants could be used more effectively by spreading large chunks of interviews out over the DV year. Plucking those into August and September is neither optimal for the consulates, nor for DV applicants from those countries of which there are many; i.e. AP cases which could easily clear with additional time might simply time-out in the current scenario and this is just one example of many where the current approach just does not seem to well thought out in my opinion.

 

[Anxiety2015]

You are connecting two different issues.

Care to explain why they are unrelated?

Since they mentioned hardware and affects every post, my mind jumps to server.
I am sure everyone knows the info being sent from post to HQ is not by cable (despite the name being used sometimes). It has to be by satellite so there's another related hardware.

So what can it be?
If it's unrelated, say the CO cannot pull up your DS260, they will simply ask you to come back another day.
I recalled a member being told back in Oct 2014 as they were having problem with the form.Luckily he printed out the DS260 form.
The fact that they were performing interview suggest otherwise.

So that left me wondering what else cannot be performed?
They must have combined your e-dv registration (with the photo) with DS260 in 1 file, set up as a query being requested by the CO.
At the interview, they take your photo and fingerprint for both AOS and CP.
Based on those, they run relevant checks based on various databases. Some nationals will got checked much longer as you can imagine they are being run through more databases (not at the same time)
It would be too naive to think they run your name/DOB only, right?

 

[FSW2015]

I think this has been asked before, but I want to make sure: Do previous visas/travel to the US help avoid AP?

 

[EURO2014]

I think this has been asked before, but I want to make sure: Do previous visas/travel to the US help avoid AP?

The answer to the general question would be no, as concerning tourist travel etc., as considerations and requirements for IV are different, in many cases opposite to some NIV categories. However there are exceptions, i.e. we found in our case, having lived in the US for 15+ years on various NIV's with full transparency for the duration, that our family had been "pre-cleared" in advance of the interview date and basically simply had to "confirm our visa" that day. Hence, the proper answer therefore should be something like "it depends"...

 

[Sm1smom]

At the interview, they take your photo and fingerprint for both AOS and CP.
Based on those, they run relevant checks based on various databases. Some nationals will got checked much longer as you can imagine they are being run through more databases (not at the same time)
It would be too naive to think they run your name/DOB only, right?

No, they do not take photo and fingerprint at the interview for AOS. This is done prior to showing up for the interview. The problems being experienced by the embassies isn't affecting USCIS's operation, IOs are not experiencing problems with looking at the selectees files from KCC.

And by the way, initial background check is carried out using name combinations and DOB prior to the interview for those processing CP. Thats part of the "processing" work KCC does.

 

[Anxiety2015]

The approach is very effective - if you look at DV2014 it was flawless. The reality is that candidate with a lower number goes first. The fact that some countries have many more entries is something allowed by the laws that control the process, so this isn't something KCC can change...

I would have to disagree with you Simon and side with Euro here.
DV2014 is "flawless" because the VO have many tricks (control) up their sleeves.
I understand the law regarding the rank order and at the beginning of the year, the VO must have some plan/target in place. And here this is where I disagree with SS as well.
Nepal and Iran can take a certain number as they have way more selectees, no argument there. Let's say 3300 and 2500 for example.
ROA will take a certain number, 2000 for example.
By allowing the 3 being interviewed at separate pace will NOT change the conservative target set at beginning of year, but allow each to process AP effectively.
In other words, Nepal and Iran are NOT , I repeat NOT, "stealing" ROA's visa.
By allowing them to go separately will only allow those who go placed on AP more time (rather than no time in Sept) to clear AP

I think ROA consulate resources for DV applicants could be used more effectively by spreading large chunks of interviews out over the DV year. Plucking those into August and September is neither optimal for the consulates, nor for DV applicants from those countries of which there are many; i.e. AP cases which could easily clear with additional time might simply time-out in the current scenario and this is just one example of many where the current approach just does not seem to well thought out in my opinion.

Exactly Euro, plus INA did not stipulate the rank order for AP

 

[Britsimon]

I think ROA consulate resources for DV applicants could be used more effectively by spreading large chunks of interviews out over the DV year. Plucking those into August and September is neither optimal for the consulates, nor for DV applicants from those countries of which there are many; i.e. AP cases which could easily clear with additional time might simply time-out in the current scenario and this is just one example of many where the current approach just does not seem to well thought out in my opinion.

Yes - but you have to make sure that a candidate at 3000 is interviewed before a candidate at 6000 (for example) - assuming those are split over different VBs.

 

[Anxiety2015]

No, they do not take photo and fingerprint at the interview for AOS. This is done prior to showing up for the interview. The problems being experienced by the embassies isn't affecting USCIS's operation, IOs are not experiencing problems with looking at the selectees files from KCC.

That's right, I remember you telling people about scheduling a bio. What I meant is the "interview" process, bio+questioning, but good catch.

And by the way, initial background check is carried out using name combinations and DOB prior to the interview for those processing CP. Thats part of the "processing" work KCC does.

That I doubt.
If they only carried out name and DOB check, what's the purpose of the photo?
I am anticipating your answer being fraud - duplicate entries which is valid.
However, they will certainly make sure you are who submitted the for 1-2 yrs back right?

On top, it's hard to imagine they will allow "person of interest" into post and 1 way to do that is to run the photo recognition, would you agree?