Sensei-san
Active Member
I am pretty sure Britsimon was a seaman in one of his previous lives.
DV-2015 winners from Asia with CN 10,000+
- Thread starter Elmar
- Start date
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Whilst a 2 month period is almost like a "holiday" length of time (which would not normally need to be listed), in the case you describe this is tied to an employment period and military service - so I would suggest being accurate as they will be tied together. So yes - list it.
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Hello guys and gals with 7650 and higher, it will be a nervous wait and stressful 2 weeks until the final VB arrives!
I myself am on the same boat, and it feels like the yacht is going to sail away with our hopes and dreams...
During the last 3 weeks, I kept looking at the CEAC data (thanks to BritSimon) and I try to reason on the why (VB is so slow)... just my opinion
- Nepal and Iran are the 'heavy weights' in the AS category, and potentially both of each can get to the 7% country max
- Nepal was leading the VB pace, with their prompt response on the DS-260 and their consistent high visa approval rate
- After CN5950 - If Nepal did not get a separate cutoff in July, they will likely reach country limit by 1st or 2nd week of August. Based on what we see today, it looks as if VO/KCC wants Nepal to hit country max (at least by the end of August) if there is no further increase in Sept VB
- Let's examine CN7650 vs 8500 (ie the mid-point of what Britsimon predicted for August and the last Iran case)... And thanks to Idea Mani, the difference of visa yielded (without any AP cleared) between CN7650 and 8500 is about 200. That is a very small increase, and it's highly unlikely that AS would hit the regional quota with CN 8500. So
a) July/Aug/Sept VB is paced by Iran, meaning CO will interview equal # of Iranian interviews for the final 3 months
b) the infamous wait and see on the AP batch. KCC/VO has been 'reserving/holding' visas for Iran so far. VO can wait till the very last moment till the final VB is called on July 9-15. If there is no major AP clearance coming through by now, they can afford to call a high CN jump (and RoA will fill the void to AS regional quota)
How likely is the above scenario? It's as good as anybody guess.
But let's work out some math here-
1) We know Nepal will hit the 7% regardless = 3300
2) Iran had a AP clearance back in Apr/May of 500 issued. We can safely say that there's a likelihood of another one coming. 1950 visas at 230/1k till CN8500 + 500 AP (coming between Jun to Sept) = 2450
3) in DV2014, RoA was issued 599 visas between Aug 1 to Sept 1 2014. Up till CN7650, we should see about 1300 issued (ie 160/1k till CN7650), plus 600 visas in Sept (that's plausible and proven/shown in the 2014) = 1900
4) Total CP (sum of 1 to 3) =7650. Add on the 300 AOS, total AS could be 7950.
While the "wait and see" is golden(let the future reveal itself) and I can certainly understand that position, I cannot disagree more with that approach.
More than ever, I feel the last VB is going to "make or break" the dreams of many and personally I feel very wrong to ask people to wait.
This doesn't mean my "prediction" is right and you can certainly adjust the calculation/logic to your own. I just feel I (we) should have something to lean on rather than wait.
I myself am on the same boat, and it feels like the yacht is going to sail away with our hopes and dreams...
During the last 3 weeks, I kept looking at the CEAC data (thanks to BritSimon) and I try to reason on the why (VB is so slow)... just my opinion
- Nepal and Iran are the 'heavy weights' in the AS category, and potentially both of each can get to the 7% country max
- Nepal was leading the VB pace, with their prompt response on the DS-260 and their consistent high visa approval rate
- After CN5950 - If Nepal did not get a separate cutoff in July, they will likely reach country limit by 1st or 2nd week of August. Based on what we see today, it looks as if VO/KCC wants Nepal to hit country max (at least by the end of August) if there is no further increase in Sept VB
- Let's examine CN7650 vs 8500 (ie the mid-point of what Britsimon predicted for August and the last Iran case)... And thanks to Idea Mani, the difference of visa yielded (without any AP cleared) between CN7650 and 8500 is about 200. That is a very small increase, and it's highly unlikely that AS would hit the regional quota with CN 8500. So
a) July/Aug/Sept VB is paced by Iran, meaning CO will interview equal # of Iranian interviews for the final 3 months
b) the infamous wait and see on the AP batch. KCC/VO has been 'reserving/holding' visas for Iran so far. VO can wait till the very last moment till the final VB is called on July 9-15. If there is no major AP clearance coming through by now, they can afford to call a high CN jump (and RoA will fill the void to AS regional quota)
How likely is the above scenario? It's as good as anybody guess.
But let's work out some math here-
1) We know Nepal will hit the 7% regardless = 3300
2) Iran had a AP clearance back in Apr/May of 500 issued. We can safely say that there's a likelihood of another one coming. 1950 visas at 230/1k till CN8500 + 500 AP (coming between Jun to Sept) = 2450
3) in DV2014, RoA was issued 599 visas between Aug 1 to Sept 1 2014. Up till CN7650, we should see about 1300 issued (ie 160/1k till CN7650), plus 600 visas in Sept (that's plausible and proven/shown in the 2014) = 1900
4) Total CP (sum of 1 to 3) =7650. Add on the 300 AOS, total AS could be 7950.
While the "wait and see" is golden(let the future reveal itself) and I can certainly understand that position, I cannot disagree more with that approach.
More than ever, I feel the last VB is going to "make or break" the dreams of many and personally I feel very wrong to ask people to wait.
This doesn't mean my "prediction" is right and you can certainly adjust the calculation/logic to your own. I just feel I (we) should have something to lean on rather than wait.
Very logical thinking.
So, to make it short for people who want a nice sweet summary of your analysis: you are predicting 1900 visas for ROA, corresponding a final CN of around 11-12k. Did I get you right?
Plus I very much agree with the bit in bold.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The problem with me predicting the final is that my predictions over the last few months have been very highly accurate. So - if I predict something, people will believe it (and possibly even take action on it) - and I could be wrong. To me, that is worse than not predicting at all. But you are welcome to your opinion and by all means predict whatever you want.
So to your prediction - you are saying 7950 will be the max number. Seems low...
Anxiety2015
Active Member
It's published that there were 8500 issued to Asia in DV2014. My message above is calculated up to 8000, so what happened to the remaining 500? will it go to AP or call for a higher CN increase?
This may be upsetting to some. In the end, KCC/VO is looking at a rate and target, which none of us know for certain. Conservatively, I think final cutoff will be somewhere low to mid 11k, but it may be higher/lower.
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Just to be clear, 7950 is the total issued for consular processing in my calculation, NOT final VB cut off.
All other regions have a good CN increase in August, CN7650 is just odd. It goes against everything we've believed in, including the pace in DV history. And for that..
I completely understand your position, but like a news agency, I'd rather have incorrect news(where I can later vet and think about it myself) than no news at all. To each their own.
It's really too quiet for AS related post, so I'm sharing my thoughts. It's open for discussion -
We know that DV is numerically controlled, there are a few ways that VO/KCC can manipulate and arrive to 8500 visas without calling a higher CN #. They can let more cleared AP through(either from Iran or RoA), back log cases that were already current but late DS-260 submission, possibly more AOS cases. So the 7950 visa issued is being conservative.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The fact that you can logically discuss all of this, know the numbers, understand the importance of Iran AP and so on is largely because of this forum and, (I would humbly suggest) the information I have made available in the CEAC data, the numerous explanations here and on my blog and so on. So that is hardly "no news at all" is it!
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Would not worry too much about specific feedback at this stage, yet rather attribute it to general and individual nervousness, which certainly is understandable. Just my 2 cents worth...
I understand. But still too many variables, we'll find out in a few days.
Honestly, whatever the outcome, I made my peace with it. Even if I became current, a lovely CO in my embassy has been putting all cases automatically on AP, suddenly starting from last month, so my chances couldn't be any lower.
Britsimon, I'm sure everyone here is grateful for all of your work and contributions. Naturally at these stage, tensions are running high, sometimes it can't be helped. I'm sure you understand.
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Let me say this first, everyone's effort in this forum (including yours, significantly, I must add) benefited me in this process. For that I thank you, all of you.
Thanks for the kind words about I am logically discussing this.
For sure it is a product of this forum and other forums, your blog and others blogs, CEAC data, FAM... I read a whole lot more than the aforementioned.
I perceived your view about "no news at all" a mixed product. You are blending the "wait and see" with all the other work you've done.
Specifically, "no news at all" that I am referring to is the "wait and see" response. Like I have said before, I can understand your position, but cannot agree to it.
You see, just like a bunch of professors in a university discussing the end of the world scenarios, we can wait and see till the end of the world of course.
However, some will choose to predict or speculate and continue to do so till the very end.
Even if they get it wrong, they did it in an effort of advancing the field. At least the next guy can avoid the wrong path.
When there's no input (i.e.no prediction for final VB), there's no output.
If I were you, I would definitely predict the final cut off.
For those of us who choose to educate ourselves, we have another mind to agree/disagree with.
For those who choose to believe and not do a thing, well, that's their choice.
To sum it up, to each their own.
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Would not worry too much about specific feedback at this stage, yet rather attribute it to general and individual nervousness, which certainly is understandable. Just my 2 cents worth...
For sure Euro. Individual nervousness and anxiety runs through my head everyday, in case you haven't notice my screen name.
Personal emotion aside, I have been trying to counter my bias and from others.
Namely survival bias from those who made it through and confirmation bias from my own prediction.
It is this very reason I am encouraging a discussion.
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Anxiety2015, Don't get me wrong, open minded discussion between willing participants is great. However, pressing Britsimon to provide a final number prediction, despite his repeated communication that he won't, including clear and valid arguments why he won't, really is not...
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Real life models are always full of variables and usually they interact with each others too.
Regarding AP, I am very sorry about the situation in your country (FSW too). I wonder if this AP process is affecting other countries too. Is it possible we are seeing this more from AP just because we have more Iranians in the pool?
As for making peace, I am sure you've heard of the saying "I will do my best and God will do the rest", the "I will do my best" part is what I am hoping to achieve here.
Well said, no one is doubting his (and others) effort.
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Couldn't agree more Euro and by no means or intention I am pressing Simon to make a prediction.Anxiety2015, Don't get me wrong, open minded discussion between willing participants is great. However, pressing Britsimon to provide a final number prediction, despite his repeated communication that he won't, including clear and valid arguments why he won't, really is not...
Heck, I have waited and worked on this for over a year, 2 more weeks is just a blink of eye.
At the end of the day, I see both sides of the argument. It really comes down to "to each their own".
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Good luck to you, Anxiety2015! What is your personal number range?
Thanks for your reply and by the way I miss our discussions and with the other guys as well
Regarding this AP thing, it is really frustrating and unfair, my embassy has been issuing visas smoothly, but suddenly starting from last month, all cases (except one) are being placed automatically under AP. It is really depressing because even if I get current I have no time to clear AP
I'm not sure if it's happening in other embassies too.Anxiety2015
Active Member
I am in 10.4-10.5 k range.
It certainly feels like RoA is substitute on the sitting bench, we fill whatever the main players can't fill the positions.