DV-2015 winners from Asia with CN 10,000+

[vanchandavy]

I resigned from predictions attemps back in March. First, the predictions were grim. Second, with so many unknown variables, they are unreliable. Third, I concluded that the knowledge of the likelihood of going current does not change a thing for me.

So I sit in the "dark corner", and I just want my goose to be cooked in peace.
@johnelliot344 , here is another one for you, since you're counting.

Hi San !!nice to talk to you back !! I have the list of schedule for Cambodia for July and August interview and I hope it help you to estimate with everything.
It's very surprised that Cambodia with low case number just starts for schedule and i understand that they are late to submit the form because of the agent play major role in it. they register eDV for free for them and when they win, they never give Case Number and they negotiate for money if they pass the interview and i understand that a lot of people in Cambodia recently got disqualified . it seems CO in Cambodia Embassy , they are very strict and tense on Public Charge or Affidavit of Support .
Talk to you again guy.
Hey San !! I couldn't upload Excel file to this forum !! how can i send the file to this post so that u can see the list of Schedule ?

 

[FSW2015]

It is not the worst position to be in. Silicon was not even allowed to be in the stands of the stadium.

Are sub players allowed to go to a bar during a game?

Looks like the game is lost already, so what the heck, let's do it!

 

[NaraLB]

Not if they are being called in the same month, which beats the purposes doesn't it? They put 3800 AS CN range in 1 month in 2014.
Imagine I got my visa before Nara just because we got called the same month, she will be mad. (Nara, its just an exmaple and I hope you don't mind. I am sure you are gracious enough not to be mad.)
You will probably say this is as good as it gets.

Consider this, how difficult can it be to "lock up" the issue status until those 1st time issued applicant before you got their visa 1st?
Not very, if they are do real time biometric check, I am sure this simple case statement can be written.

LOLOLOLOL
Of course I wouldn't get mad I hope with both get our visas, for real!!!

 

[siliconeslinger]

Believe me the final vb will be in the low 10,*** or 11,*** at best, but not gonna touch 12,***..no way a 5000 increase is possible with the current situation (nepal extremely high response and approval rate, Iranian cases resolve 3 months ahead of 2014 ones)

The current state of affairs just doesn't look good for Roa.. Good for Nepalese..

 

[siliconeslinger]

I am in 10.4-10.5 k range.
It certainly feels like RoA is substitute on the sitting bench, we fill whatever the main players can't fill the positions.

This...
The main players are Nepalese and iranians..

 

[siliconeslinger]

How many of you fellow roa wish you had never been selected for dv15 at all?

I wish i hadn't been selected and got selected for dv16 instead.. Dv16 seems very promising given the number of selectees (91k as opposed to 125k)

I've already come to terms with the notion of never getting interviewed, because of nepal and iranians..

Really though, kcc is very bad at handling these two countries.. Makes it seem like roa = substitute players.. In case the main players can't fill up the quota

 

[Sensei-san]

Hi San !!nice to talk to you back !! I have the list of schedule for Cambodia for July and August interview and I hope it help you to estimate with everything.
It's very surprised that Cambodia with low case number just starts for schedule and i understand that they are late to submit the form because of the agent play major role in it. they register eDV for free for them and when they win, they never give Case Number and they negotiate for money if they pass the interview and i understand that a lot of people in Cambodia recently got disqualified . it seems CO in Cambodia Embassy , they are very strict and tense on Public Charge or Affidavit of Support .
Talk to you again guy.
Hey San !! I couldn't upload Excel file to this forum !! how can i send the file to this post so that u can see the list of Schedule ?

Hey hey, Devy. I appreciate your kindness in doing this. I, however, am not doing my own predictions since March, when I figured my goose was up for cooking. (this "goose" citation goes out to my friend and accountant @johnelliot344 )
I am not sure if you can upload an excel to this forum.
You say the agents negotiate for money after an interview?
As for the public charge, do your best to find AoS, and start saving today.

 

[Anxiety2015]

kcc is very bad at handling these two countries.. Makes it seem like roa = substitute players.. In case the main players can't fill up the quota

I'm about to start another 'rant' (i mean post)
AF gets 20-22k visas, with 50+ countries, 5 of which have over 4000 selectees
EU gets 19-20k visas, with 60+ countries 2 of which have over 4000 selectees
AS gets 8-8.5k visas, with 32 countires, 2 of which with over 4000 selectees

We know from CEAC data that all 3 regions are heavily loaded, with high density up front, and the density drops with high rank numbers.
Comparing EU and AS, Rest of Asia vs Rest of Europe is at a lower advantage (due to less regional quota)
Comparing AF and AS,
- Only 2 countries in AF had reached country max in the past.
- Rest of AF has (s)low response/approval rate, a little similar to Rest of Asia behaviour
- because AF takes the biggest 'pie'. kCC/VO cannot afford to pace rest of AF to coincide with Egypt movement. So Egypt has its own cutoff
- AS can be paced by Nepal, because afterall, RoA+Iran take up about 5000 visas. In the eyes of KCC/VO, AS is not as important as AF or EU individually.
If they fail to make the AS quota (ie short by 0.5-1k for example) by Sept 2015. The overall DV quota (50,000+) is not hughly impacted.

This is a very pessimistic view of AS. But it's as if VO/KCC has given up on AS (specifically RoA) winners.

 

[Britsimon]

I'm about to start another 'rant' (i mean post)
AF gets 20-22k visas, with 50+ countries, 5 of which have over 4000 selectees
EU gets 19-20k visas, with 60+ countries 2 of which have over 4000 selectees
AS gets 8-8.5k visas, with 32 countires, 2 of which with over 4000 selectees

We know from CEAC data that all 3 regions are heavily loaded, with high density up front, and the density drops with high rank numbers.
Comparing EU and AS, Rest of Asia vs Rest of Europe is at a lower advantage (due to less regional quota)
Comparing AF and AS,
- Only 2 countries in AF had reached country max in the past.
- Rest of AF has (s)low response/approval rate, a little similar to Rest of Asia behaviour
- because AF takes the biggest 'pie'. kCC/VO cannot afford to pace rest of AF to coincide with Egypt movement. So Egypt has its own cutoff
- AS can be paced by Nepal, because afterall, RoA+Iran take up about 5000 visas. In the eyes of KCC/VO, AS is not as important as AF or EU individually.
If they fail to make the AS quota (ie short by 0.5-1k for example) by Sept 2015. The overall DV quota (50,000+) is not hughly impacted.

This is a very pessimistic view of AS. But it's as if VO/KCC has given up on AS (specifically RoA) winners.

It couldn't just be the rules of the lottery. It must be something against Asia. Yeah, must be that.

 

[FSW2015]

I'm about to start another 'rant' (i mean post)
AF gets 20-22k visas, with 50+ countries, 5 of which have over 4000 selectees
EU gets 19-20k visas, with 60+ countries 2 of which have over 4000 selectees
AS gets 8-8.5k visas, with 32 countires, 2 of which with over 4000 selectees

We know from CEAC data that all 3 regions are heavily loaded, with high density up front, and the density drops with high rank numbers.
Comparing EU and AS, Rest of Asia vs Rest of Europe is at a lower advantage (due to less regional quota)
Comparing AF and AS,
- Only 2 countries in AF had reached country max in the past.
- Rest of AF has (s)low response/approval rate, a little similar to Rest of Asia behaviour
- because AF takes the biggest 'pie'. kCC/VO cannot afford to pace rest of AF to coincide with Egypt movement. So Egypt has its own cutoff
- AS can be paced by Nepal, because afterall, RoA+Iran take up about 5000 visas. In the eyes of KCC/VO, AS is not as important as AF or EU individually.
If they fail to make the AS quota (ie short by 0.5-1k for example) by Sept 2015. The overall DV quota (50,000+) is not hughly impacted.

This is a very pessimistic view of AS. But it's as if VO/KCC has given up on AS (specifically RoA) winners.

Unusually, for once I'm going to disagree with you.
I think this whole process is delicately regulated by a set of laws that even the most experienced experts don't know/understand completely. I'm sure you remember our lengthy conversations about quotas and such. Despite the disappointing VB progress for AS throughout this year, I still believe KCC/VO will try to achieve certain balance within the AS region (of course mostly between RoA and Iran), it is this thought that gave me some hope recently (foolish maybe). But there is still one thing which is that KCC/VO don't care, to a certain extent, where the visas are going as long as the quota is reached.
I'm not sure what I said actually makes sense, just my 2 cents though.

 

[Anxiety2015]

It couldn't just be the rules of the lottery. It must be something against Asia. Yeah, must be that.

What I can agree is that the rule/law is not set by you or me, it's set by folks that we don't have right to elect.
No point talking about fair or not, since it won't change.

Now, let's consider this, the 7% max what the law says 7% of the 50-55k total.
Let's do an apple to apple comparison and say we have only 1 country that can max per region, shall we?
AF - 3500 / 21000 is 16.67%
EU - 3500 / 19000 is 18.42%
AS - 3500 / 8000 is 43.75%
OC & SA - None of the heavy weight state (Australia / Cuba) won't reach the 3500 max, their regional quota don't get the level.
NA - hm......I think they can go current.

Again, I didn't say "something against Asia', you did.
I said , it seems the VO doens't really care about ROA and they can afford to.

These are 2 very different thing.

 

[Anxiety2015]

Unusually, for once I'm going to disagree with you.
I think this whole process is delicately regulated by a set of laws that even the most experienced experts don't know/understand completely. I'm sure you remember our lengthy conversations about quotas and such. Despite the disappointing VB progress for AS throughout this year, I still believe KCC/VO will try to achieve certain balance within the AS region (of course mostly between RoA and Iran), it is this thought that gave me some hope recently (foolish maybe). But there is still one thing which is that KCC/VO don't care, to a certain extent, where the visas are going as long as the quota is reached.
I'm not sure what I said actually makes sense, just my 2 cents though.

This makes perfect sense, again, we are talking about a congressional mandate here.
The VO will attempt, not mandated to fill the quota. One example will be AF of 2014.
They have folks to be called up till the end, while AF did not take their fair share of NACARA. This is due to the VO performing the corrective measure too little too late in my opinion.

As a result of calcualtion and CEAC data, we always look at Nepal/Iran/ROA as 3 sub regions.
In fact, I agree with you that the VO only looks at a single state that can max (Nepal) and those cannot(Iran, ROA)
"But it's as if VO/KCC has given up on AS (specifically RoA) winners." This statement is precisely about my observation about what you said "But there is still one thing which is that KCC/VO don't care, to a certain extent, where the visas are going as long as the quota is reached."

The purpose of my post is to illustrate the effect of country max to the regional quota, not to whine about fairness or the lack of.
It is my commitment to state/illustrate the fact as clean and unbiased as possible.
I will leave it up to your judgement regarding feelings towards fairness or otherwise.

 

[FSW2015]

This makes perfect sense, again, we are talking about a congressional mandate here.
The VO will attempt, not mandated to fill the quota. One example will be AF of 2014.
They have folks to be called up till the end, while AF did not take their fair share of NACARA. This is due to the VO performing the corrective measure too little too late in my opinion.

As a result of calcualtion and CEAC data, we always look at Nepal/Iran/ROA as 3 sub regions.
In fact, I agree with you that the VO only looks at a single state that can max (Nepal) and those cannot(Iran, ROA)
"But it's as if VO/KCC has given up on AS (specifically RoA) winners." This statement is precisely about my observation about what you said "But there is still one thing which is that KCC/VO don't care, to a certain extent, where the visas are going as long as the quota is reached."

The purpose of my post is to illustrate the effect of country max to the regional quota, not to whine about fairness or the lack of.
It is my commitment to state/illustrate the fact as clean and unbiased as possible.
I will leave it up to your judgement regarding feelings towards fairness or otherwise.

Ah ok, I get what you mean.
But if I were the KCC/VO, I would place my bet on RoA instead of giving up on it. After all, applicants from RoA provide better chance for the quota to be reached, right? Much safer than betting on the uncertainty of Iran AP.

 

[Anxiety2015]

Ah ok, I get what you mean.
But if I were the KCC/VO, I would place my bet on RoA instead of giving up on it. After all, applicants from RoA provide better chance for the quota to be reached, right? Much safer than betting on the uncertainty of Iran AP.

Correct, as biased as I can be, this would seems the most logical thing to do, barring the law about rank order of separate VBs.

Given that we are looking at the same VB (as Simon as pointed out), rank order is out of the window.
In this situation(Sept 2015), ROA is far more predictable than Iran, due to certain type of Iranian AP.

While I agree with Simon about the VO knowing more than we do regarding Iranian AP clearance, it is my position to say the VO probably know less than most of us thought of.
AP clearance is based on numerous agencies and the VO might have a better guess than we do, ,it is evident in 2014 their guess are not as good as I would expect.

It is also at the back of my head where they might be over-compensating this year and be overly conservative.

 

[NaraLB]

This makes perfect sense, again, we are talking about a congressional mandate here.
The VO will attempt, not mandated to fill the quota. One example will be AF of 2014.
They have folks to be called up till the end, while AF did not take their fair share of NACARA. This is due to the VO performing the corrective measure too little too late in my opinion.

As a result of calcualtion and CEAC data, we always look at Nepal/Iran/ROA as 3 sub regions.
In fact, I agree with you that the VO only looks at a single state that can max (Nepal) and those cannot(Iran, ROA)
"But it's as if VO/KCC has given up on AS (specifically RoA) winners." This statement is precisely about my observation about what you said "But there is still one thing which is that KCC/VO don't care, to a certain extent, where the visas are going as long as the quota is reached."

The purpose of my post is to illustrate the effect of country max to the regional quota, not to whine about fairness or the lack of.
It is my commitment to state/illustrate the fact as clean and unbiased as possible.
I will leave it up to your judgement regarding feelings towards fairness or otherwise.

Ah ok, I get what you mean.
But if I were the KCC/VO, I would place my bet on RoA instead of giving up on it. After all, applicants from RoA provide better chance for the quota to be reached, right? Much safer than betting on the uncertainty of Iran AP.

If you pay close attention to what Anxiety said, he's pointing to the fact that KCC can give up on RoA without the quota being significantly impacted.
Another thing is that KCC won't be blindingly betting on Iran (or RoA, or whatever..) Simon has clearly said they have better insight on where Iran AP is going, and maybe even decided on a number of visas for Iran. Previous years clearly demonstrated that they know what they're doing.
Regarding the fairness of it all, do I think it's fair? Probably not. I might be sharing on my opinion on this later, but right now, I don't want to spark arguments or cause trouble.

 

[NaraLB]

Correct, as biased as I can be, this would seems the most logical thing to do, barring the law about rank order of separate VBs.

Given that we are looking at the same VB (as Simon as pointed out), rank order is out of the window.
In this situation(Sept 2015), ROA is far more predictable than Iran, due to certain type of Iranian AP.

While I agree with Simon about the VO knowing more than we do regarding Iranian AP clearance, it is my position to say the VO probably know less than most of us thought of.
AP clearance is based on numerous agencies and the VO might have a better guess than we do, ,it is evident in 2014 their guess are not as good as I would expect.

It is also at the back of my head where they might be over-compensating this year and be overly conservative.

OK we posted at the same moment, LOL

 

[NaraLB]

It is also at the back of my head where they might be over-compensating this year and be overly conservative.

I thought of that too, and I'm dreading the possibility.

 

[Britsimon]

What I can agree is that the rule/law is not set by you or me, it's set by folks that we don't have right to elect.
No point talking about fair or not, since it won't change.

Now, let's consider this, the 7% max what the law says 7% of the 50-55k total.
Let's do an apple to apple comparison and say we have only 1 country that can max per region, shall we?
AF - 3500 / 21000 is 16.67%
EU - 3500 / 19000 is 18.42%
AS - 3500 / 8000 is 43.75%
OC & SA - None of the heavy weight state (Australia / Cuba) won't reach the 3500 max, their regional quota don't get the level.
NA - hm......I think they can go current.

Again, I didn't say "something against Asia', you did.
I said , it seems the VO doens't really care about ROA and they can afford to.

These are 2 very different thing.

The laws have been set WAY before you entered this lottery. This was the lottery you entered...

OK, so you are good at math. I assume you have looked at the number of entries for each country and the region as a whole. Care to post what percentage of entries come from each country in Asia?

 

[Anxiety2015]

If you pay close attention to what Anxiety said, he's pointing to the fact that KCC can give up on RoA without the quota being significantly impacted.
Another thing is that KCC won't be blindingly betting on Iran (or RoA, or whatever..) Simon has clearly said they have better insight on where Iran AP is going, and maybe even decided on a number of visas for Iran. Previous years clearly demonstrated that they know what they're doing.
Regarding the fairness of it all, do I think it's fair? Probably not. I might be sharing on my opinion on this later, but right now, I don't want to spark arguments or cause trouble.

If you pay close attention to what Anxiety said, he's pointing to the fact that KCC can give up on RoA without the quota being significantly impacted.
Another thing is that KCC won't be blindingly betting on Iran (or RoA, or whatever..) Simon has clearly said they have better insight on where Iran AP is going, and maybe even decided on a number of visas for Iran. Previous years clearly demonstrated that they know what they're doing.
Regarding the fairness of it all, do I think it's fair? Probably not. I might be sharing on my opinion on this later, but right now, I don't want to spark arguments or cause trouble.

Thanks Nara, FSW and Simon for you input.
Let me make this clear, I am trying to be as respectful as possible to all of you (including those who are just reading).
It is my goal to share fact and illustration without judgement as much as possible.

Just like you, I have emotions and I am trying my best to hold those back as I write. If that let to the perception of Simon and others that I am complaining/whining, I apologize.

 

[Britsimon]

If you pay close attention to what Anxiety said, he's pointing to the fact that KCC can give up on RoA without the quota being significantly impacted.
Another thing is that KCC won't be blindingly betting on Iran (or RoA, or whatever..) Simon has clearly said they have better insight on where Iran AP is going, and maybe even decided on a number of visas for Iran. Previous years clearly demonstrated that they know what they're doing.
Regarding the fairness of it all, do I think it's fair? Probably not. I might be sharing on my opinion on this later, but right now, I don't want to spark arguments or cause trouble.

Nara, I don't think they set a number for Iran - you misunderstand my point. They don't set a quota for a country. However, they would be able to predict which cases (generally) will clear AP, based on SLAs from the agencies doing the background checks.