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DV-2014 Lottery High number or not? Please help.

britsimon said:
That would sort of make sense. In DV 2013 there were 52k AF selectees and this year there are 62k - a 19.2% increase. So, let's assume that DV2013 the max case number is in the early 90k range - add 20% on top and 116k seems about right.

By the way, this also shows that the AF selectees were not increased in line with the global increase and we know that other regions (particularly OC and SA) have had larger than expected increases (in comparison to the global increase). As I have stated before I do think that reflects an increased quota in SA/OC regions and I think that quota has been taken from AF region. EU and AS regions have very small increases compared to the global increase.
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But visa bulletin shows that EU goes faster than 2013.
Maybe for EU increase is not that small, right?
 
But visa bulletin shows that EU goes faster than 2013.
Maybe for EU increase is not that small, right?
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According to my calculations, Europe must get visas 18500-20000.
Africa - 18000-19500
Asia - 10000-11000
SA+OC - 2500-2700.
 
Sloner said:
According to my calculations, Europe must get visas 18500-20000.
Africa - 18000-19500
Asia - 10000-11000
SA+OC - 2500-2700.
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Sloner, I agree on AS, SA and OC, but don't understand why you still think AF & EU will be so changed. Are you still basing this on 2012???
 
Sloner said:
Yes, on 2012 and new data CEAC.
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Right. So you are calculating that the 50K AF selectees in 2012 only yielded 13.5k and on that basis you think they will only get 17/18k from the 62k selectees in this year, but you have made a very small adjustment upwards, just because of the public pressure you came under for this assumption.

Why Sloner, why?????
 
britsimon said:
Right. So you are calculating that the 50K AF selectees in 2012 only yielded 13.5k and on that basis you think they will only get 17/18k from the 62k selectees in this year, but you have made a very small adjustment upwards, just because of the public pressure you came under for this assumption.

Why Sloner, why?????
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Simon wait for my new slonerish theory tonite! You gonna also get grey hairs haha
 
supreme dhakal said:
The empirical relation does not work for AS
11k * 1.192 = 13.112, I might be wrong
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You are not wrong - it won't work because that is the AF number, not AS.

However the increase in selectees from 2013 to 2014 for AS is 45% (not 19% like AF). There were 16045 selectees in DV2013 and 23270 in DV2014. However Asia is also harder to track down the highest case numbers. I don't know the DV2013 highest case number because the CEAC data is cutoff too early and common sense tells us that the highest CN in CEAC (10,682) is too low for 16k selectees. In DV2014 the highest case number was thought to be around 27k (so higher than the selectee number). There have been three people quoting numbers even higher than that - so honestly we don't really have a reliable highest case number for AS in 2014 or 2013. net result - don't bother trying to do this calculation....
 
britsimon said:
The case number that we know about from CEAC is lower - but I do not believe that was the highest case number. That wouldn't make sense.
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It make sense when the principal to derivatives ratio is much higher in DV13 compare to DV14. In DV13, there is an application with 9 derivatives. Imagine a single case # taking up 10 selectees. So far in DV14 only 2 case # with 5 selectees. Also, we might have more holes in DV14, after Nepal and Iran hit their artificial limits, selection after that are consider holes.
 
kayend said:
It make sense when the principal to derivatives ratio is much higher in DV13 compare to DV14. In DV13, there is an application with 9 derivatives. Imagine a single case # taking up 10 selectees. So far in DV14 only 2 case # with 5 selectees. Also, we might have more holes in DV14, after Nepal and Iran hit their artificial limits, selection after that are consider holes.
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I don't buy that. Over 16k people the principal/derivative ratio will be roughly similar unless the country makeup is very different. So yeah, there might have been a 10 selectee case but it will even out year to year. It might vary by a few percent, but not significantly.

By the way, the principal/derivative ratios by country is available here:-

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/DV_Applicant_Entrants_by_Country_2007-2013.pdf
 
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