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DV-2014 Lottery High number or not? Please help.

i'm sure that...Majority of the winners will get a chance for an interview......... no doubt about that............................. it can be everyone....
 
Nerandima said:
i'm sure that...Majority of the winners will get a chance for an interview......... no doubt about that............................. it can be everyone....
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Sure...my friend's auntie's sister's friend's father's dog woofed to that, too. :eek:
 
Sloner said:
hidden numbers were always. Maximum CN in DV14 - 9374171.
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SusieQQQ said:
I am pretty sure there are not nine million numbers :D

Also highest case number reported is over 100k for AF.
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He is referring to the entrants as there were "9,374,191 qualified entries". In typical Sloner style he is making a somewhat correct point, in that every entry gets a case number. However, I think he might not have considered that the entries are divided into regions prior to getting the case number, so the highest number is actually a lot lower than 9,374,191. Not really relevant at all - but there it is...
 
He is referring to the entrants as there were "9,374,191 qualified entries". In typical Sloner style he is making a somewhat correct point, in that every entry gets a case number. However, I think he might not have considered that the entries are divided into regions prior to getting the case number, so the highest number is actually a lot lower than 9,374,191. Not really relevant at all - but there it is...
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Yes, I forgot about 6 baskets. Thank you, that explained. "2014EU00031205" Therefore, three zeros in case number.
 
britsimon said:
He is referring to the entrants as there were "9,374,191 qualified entries". In typical Sloner style he is making a somewhat correct point, in that every entry gets a case number. However, I think he might not have considered that the entries are divided into regions prior to getting the case number, so the highest number is actually a lot lower than 9,374,191. Not really relevant at all - but there it is...
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But the entry case numbers are presumably different to the ones assigned after selection, given what we know actual case numbers are...
 
vladek15425 said:
I traced AF 91xxx in 2011 and he had an interview... Was there any higher than this case?
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Before DV2014 or in it? Didn't some people here report AF numbers over 100k this year?

Just FYI for AF. Except 2012 (current from June), since 2008/09, numbers have only gone current in the final month of the year. The August cut-offs ranged from 64300 to 81200. In 2007/08, AF did not go current, with cut-off 62300 for September. Before the mid 2000s there were a number of years AF was subject to September cut-off too.
 
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SusieQQQ said:
But the entry case numbers are presumably different to the ones assigned after selection, given what we know actual case numbers are...
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Yes the order is something like this.

1. Every entry gets a unique number number (not yet the case number).
2. All the entries are sorted into the regions.
3. All the entries get a case number called a rank number (all 9 million)
4. The lottery system goes through in rank number order selecting entries to be selectees.
5. Fraud entries are weeded out creating holes.
 
britsimon said:
Yes the order is something like this.

1. Every entry gets a unique number number (not yet the case number).
2. All the entries are sorted into the regions.
3. All the entries get a case number called a rank number (all 9 million)
4. The lottery system goes through in rank number order selecting entries to be selectees.
5. Fraud entries are weeded out creating holes.
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According to that, the real Draw is about numbering entrants randomly per region
and hiding numbers are next numbers in the ranking
 
rafikbo76 said:
According to that, the real Draw is about numbering entrants randomly per region
and hiding numbers are next numbers in the ranking
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Correct on both points. In years where there is a "second draw" it simply means revealing the next selectees based on the rank number they have already been assigned.
 
SusieQQQ said:
Before DV2014 or in it? Didn't some people here report AF numbers over 100k this year?

Just FYI for AF. Except 2012 (current from June), since 2008/09, numbers have only gone current in the final month of the year. The August cut-offs ranged from 64300 to 81200. In 2007/08, AF did not go current, with cut-off 62300 for September. Before the mid 2000s there were a number of years AF was subject to September cut-off too.
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2011 check SA forum
 
SusieQQQ said:
I was referring to your question asking if there were higher numbers - it was unclear what year you were referring to?
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Oh ok . I wanted to know how high AF cn numbers in the previous years except this year I know its
116000 from cameroun. Last year I only saw 88000, from 2011 I saw 91000 from sa and he had his interview...
 
vladek15425 said:
Oh ok . I wanted to know how high AF cn numbers in the previous years except this year I know its
116000 from cameroun. Last year I only saw 88000, from 2011 I saw 91000 from sa and he had his interview...
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That would sort of make sense. In DV 2013 there were 52k AF selectees and this year there are 62k - a 19.2% increase. So, let's assume that DV2013 the max case number is in the early 90k range - add 20% on top and 116k seems about right.

By the way, this also shows that the AF selectees were not increased in line with the global increase and we know that other regions (particularly OC and SA) have had larger than expected increases (in comparison to the global increase). As I have stated before I do think that reflects an increased quota in SA/OC regions and I think that quota has been taken from AF region. EU and AS regions have very small increases compared to the global increase.
 
britsimon said:
That would sort of make sense. In DV 2013 there were 52k AF selectees and this year there are 62k - a 19.2% increase. So, let's assume that DV2013 the max case number is in the early 90k range - add 20% on top and 116k seems about right.

By the way, this also shows that the AF selectees were not increased in line with the global increase and we know that other regions (particularly OC and SA) have had larger than expected increases (in comparison to the global increase). As I have stated before I do think that reflects an increased quota in SA/OC regions and I think that quota has been taken from AF region. EU and AS regions have very small increases compared to the global increase.
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But,

The max African CN in DV-2013 was 97005
 
britsimon said:
That would sort of make sense. In DV 2013 there were 52k AF selectees and this year there are 62k - a 19.2% increase. So, let's assume that DV2013 the max case number is in the early 90k range - add 20% on top and 116k seems about right.

By the way, this also shows that the AF selectees were not increased in line with the global increase and we know that other regions (particularly OC and SA) have had larger than expected increases (in comparison to the global increase). As I have stated before I do think that reflects an increased quota in SA/OC regions and I think that quota has been taken from AF region. EU and AS regions have very small increases compared to the global increase.
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Do you think the AF quota has fallen because Nigeria is out? Or for "diversity" reasons?

Re case numbers, I think we also shouldn't forget that really, we see a handful of cases across the various forums. This is probably one of the most active, yet members that have been selected for DV2014 fall very far short of 140k!!! On my home country forum we have maybe 10 a year who are current selectees, out of draws of around 1000 for the country.
 
SusieQQQ said:
Do you think the AF quota has fallen because Nigeria is out? Or for "diversity" reasons?

Re case numbers, I think we also shouldn't forget that really, we see a handful of cases across the various forums. This is probably one of the most active, yet members that have been selected for DV2014 fall very far short of 140k!!! On my home country forum we have maybe 10 a year who are current selectees, out of draws of around 1000 for the country.
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Country changes certainly impact it (Nigeria will change DV2015), but the quota is based on a published formula - so I suppose that formula is favouring our friends in OC and SA....
 
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