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DV-2014 Lottery High number or not? Please help.

perrybhadra said:
Hi SusieQQQ

Within 6082 selectee how would you think that the distribution for Case number would be?

Can it be something like there could be some missing numbers within distribution.

Lets say nepal has 0 - 30000 AS and then there is just 60000 and then moving forward. Could there be sth like that?
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I'm not sure I understand the question, there will definitely be gaps in the case numbers from the holes, if that's what you're asking.
 
I am poor in maths n english both and my analysis might be wrong....why did they select 6082 selectee for 3500???? If 4500 selectee would be more than sufficient, why did they select 1500 more ???
My case number is very high AS 12*** , I should not get a chance from this equation but why did they select the case numbers higher than me like 13k,14k.....27k from Nepal?
 
perrybhadra said:
Hi SusieQQQ

Within 6082 selectee how would you think that the distribution for Case number would be?

Can it be something like there could be some missing numbers within distribution.

Lets say nepal has 0 - 30000 AS and then there is just 60000 and then moving forward. Could there be sth like that?
Click to expand...

If you mean the distribution of the cn numbers its done randomly for each region like for AS they start from AS01 until the highest cn in AS in which we heard goes up to AS38xxx
But for nepalees we believe that since are a lot they were capped at the limit of 12k cn ...
Now about missing numbers we call them holes because after fisrt computer radom draw and disribution of CN some get rejected for multiple entries, fraud, incomplete application...
Like in AF region CN's' goes up to 116000 but there is only 62000 selectees .
 
supreme dhakal said:
I am poor in maths n english both and my analysis might be wrong....why did they select 6082 selectee for 3500???? If 4500 selectee would be more than sufficient, why did they select 1500 more ???
My case number is very high AS 12*** , I should not get a chance from this equation but why did they select the case numbers higher than me like 13k,14k.....27k from Nepal?
Click to expand...

Dont wory even if your english and maths are poor you can still post and argue im just as you:)
They take over suscribed selectees this year because like you know lot of people dont persue thier initial application (they dont send forms to kcc) or they dont show up at the interview and other fail for medical reason and financial reason and so...
So they take extra to make sure they will fill up the quota of 50' visa at the end of the fiscal year.
Its like as i said in AF there is 62000 selectees runing for about plus minus 23000 visas !
 
vladek15425 said:
Dont wory even if your english and maths are poor you can still post and argue im just as you:)
They take over suscribed selectees this year because like you know lot of people dont persue thier initial application (they dont send forms to kcc) or they dont show up at the interview and other fail for medical reason and financial reason and so...
So they take extra to make sure they will fill up the quota of 50' visa at the end of the fiscal year.
Its like as i said in AF there is 62000 selectees runing for about plus minus 23000 visas !
Click to expand...

It will be better to call for second, third time to fulfill 50k visa in my view....but they are gonna disappoint at the end of fiscal year for sure!!!
 
supreme dhakal said:
did they select some hidden numbers?
Click to expand...
thats and other theory(from raevsky) ! hidden numbers usually were kept for incase they run out of candidates so they notify them later. according to raevsky there is no hidden numbers in dv2014 since they notified 140660 selectees this year from the start.
 
If the winner A has just newly married after dv first letter and winner B has just given birth a child after dv then what would be the number of issued visa then?
Number of visas = 1 or 2 for A
Number of visas = 2 or 3 for B
 
supreme dhakal said:
If the winner A has just newly married after dv first letter and winner B has just given birth a child after dv then what would be the number of issued visa then?
Number of visas = 1 or 2 for A
Number of visas = 2 or 3 for B
Click to expand...
visas are not only deducted from principal apllicant the family number also are taking visas as simon said.
so if thereis a selectee that has 20 children they will 22 asuming that he has a wife(rabbit:)) fifty out of the 50000 visas available.
 
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supreme dhakal said:
I am poor in maths n english both and my analysis might be wrong....why did they select 6082 selectee for 3500???? If 4500 selectee would be more than sufficient, why did they select 1500 more ???
My case number is very high AS 12*** , I should not get a chance from this equation but why did they select the case numbers higher than me like 13k,14k.....27k from Nepal?
Click to expand...

If i work out the numbers roughly (in my head, I don't have a calculator to hand!) the increase in Nepalese selectees is pretty similar (in % terms) to the increase in overall selectees. I don't think they looked at it on a country-by-country basis in terms of previous take-up - I think they just selected more people from every region to make up their target quota of selectees. As to why the big increase in selectees - it's been speculated that they based those numbers on the last complete data at the time of the draw, which was 2012 which had a poor take-up due to the snafu with the draw. And if I recall the numbers correctly, Nepalese visa issuance was running around 2000 per year until DV2013. Remember they did the DV2014 draw long before the end of DV2013. (I am assuming the 3700 visa issuance for Nepal for DV2013 posted earlier in this thread was correct.)
 
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nepal took 3316 visas last year thats why with the over suscription this year many of us believe that nepal will go under country special cutoff and due to high succes rate and they will probably hit the cap limit of 7%
 
thats and other theory(from raevsky) ! hidden numbers usually were kept for incase they run out of candidates so they notify them later. according to raevsky there is no hidden numbers in dv2014 since they notified 140660 selectees this year from the start.
Click to expand...
hidden numbers were always. Maximum CN in DV14 - 9374171.
 
the last two digits might be extra, if there is hidden numbers in dv 014 then how can we distinguish between them????
 
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