DV-2011 Winners Report Here!
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I feel that Montreal comment is correct.
Because KCC confirmed that applicants are randomly selected from a computer.
In that case if KCC consider family members are also as individuals they should be randomly selected and my spouse and two children can not have CNs next to me.
Then how NL1 says only about my CN?
Secondly if we assume that only main applicant is randomly selected and other members are given CNs sequentially, case numbers can not exceed the 100k. (no need to give block NOs. as someone mentioned)
Thirdly KCC's assumption that "some selectees do not pursue visa and therefore double of allocated visas are issued with NL1" is also not valid. Because if I get visa, my 3 family members get visa definitely too. Then selectees can not to be double. It should be below the double of allocated visas. And also that amount (50k : 100k ratio) should be fluctuated year by year
it is double every year only if principal applicants are considered as 50k : 100k.
Forthly I read some where that assigning Cns to derivative is commenced recently(I think from year 2005). About few yrs ago Visa bulletin cutoff no not exceeding 7000-8000. If 6000-7000 visas were given to Asia in recent years, only with the principal applicants CNs, visa bulletin can not go high up to 7000 before the year 2005. It should have stopped at about 3000-4000 . Because their family members are also have given visa.
Fifthly I ASK why KCC do not explain these things to people concerned and let us argue like this???
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Hi friends,
It is "almost" clear to me that 100K selectees are only main applicants, and 50K visa limit includes derivatives.
For NuvF,
Based on section 203(c) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, DOS already calculated visa allocation for each region in advance, presumably resulting in 7000-8000 visas allocated & issued for Asia recently. It is a rule. NuvF, you may ask a lawyer about this
It is "almost" clear to me that 100K selectees are only main applicants, and 50K visa limit includes derivatives.
For NuvF,
Based on section 203(c) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, DOS already calculated visa allocation for each region in advance, presumably resulting in 7000-8000 visas allocated & issued for Asia recently. It is a rule. NuvF, you may ask a lawyer about this
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NuvF
Member
So, they are looking at a pool of ~200k to 400k ppl in TOTAL to handout 50k visas?
and with that many on the ring they have a hard time to fill the quota in 12 mos? interesting 'opinion'!
For NuvF,
Based on section 203(c) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, DOS already calculated visa allocation for each region in advance, presumably resulting in 7000-8000 visas allocated & issued for Asia recently. It is a rule. NuvF, you may ask a lawyer about this
Sure, regional ratios are a primary aim of DV 'law'. And my argument was that it is fullfilled at the initial 'selection' round. If they have had a hard and fast rule (like the 7% p/c limit) for regions in the second round, they would have had disclosed it somewhere somehow during this 15 yrs of DV program existence. However, simply by the way they allocate monthly quotas (CN cut offs), statistically, the initial ratio is preserved even at the end, in my 'opinion' !
Ok, this is some issue that I tht I would not argue about. 'cos I found over the yrs that ppl with higher CNs kind of lament that the DV is not a level playing field for them.
True, even at the second round it IS a lottery...luck by chance!
It is biased towards ppl with lower CNs who got a better shot at approval even if their cases drag for few months with admin reviews, more document request etc.
So......do not worry much about this number allocation. Only ppl from very few countries REALLY needed to worry about this, and I think over the yrs they have realized and accepted this fact.
Best!
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Hi Montreal2011Dv and tmfl:
I think neither of you had noticed my concern in the thread #1919 maybe it had been distracted by some new post that is not related to your discussion. Anyway, what I would like to say is still the same thing I had posted in #1919. I think most of you think that the 100600 selectees are primary applicants without derivates. But how can we explain what the KCC mentioned in the first Notification Letter of which it is the sentence "Approximately 100000 INDIVIDUALS were registered for futher processing". Does this INDIVIDUALS mean the primary applicants only or the combination of primary applicants and their derivates? I have no idea about this and any opinion is welcome.
I think neither of you had noticed my concern in the thread #1919 maybe it had been distracted by some new post that is not related to your discussion. Anyway, what I would like to say is still the same thing I had posted in #1919. I think most of you think that the 100600 selectees are primary applicants without derivates. But how can we explain what the KCC mentioned in the first Notification Letter of which it is the sentence "Approximately 100000 INDIVIDUALS were registered for futher processing". Does this INDIVIDUALS mean the primary applicants only or the combination of primary applicants and their derivates? I have no idea about this and any opinion is welcome.
Sorry, jws0630, I didn't intend to ignore your post. It is hard for me to answer it. This is my opinion that meaning of "individuals" in NL1, "persons" and even "applicants" in visa bulletin is logically ambiguous. In NL1, those sentences want to mean you are one of 100K individuals selected and it is not a big deal to clarify whether or not derivatives are included at that point. That's why those who want to clarify this issue could mess up their interpretation. I would suggest not to stick to one word, get a big picture somehow, read other official documents, visa bulletin, etc.
NuvF
Member
@jws....
ALL numerically limited GC visa categories in which they have set up 'quotas' are meant for the TOTAL in that category, PA+Derv s.
DV category is no exception.
Only visa category where the announced quota is only for primary app. are the H non imm. visas.
Long standing DoS/KCC claim is that they select 100-110k individuals to give away 55k visas at the yr end.
Fact that how they select the the final 55k shows who are the original 100-110k....all of them are WINNERS irrespective of PA or deriv, nothing less nothing more!
Only thing is that PA has to prove eligibility to piggy back the dervs into the 55k quota.
The confusion with DV for some ppl is that they try interpret this basic fact to fit their opinion on the CN allocation methods.
CN 'allocation method' is basically irrelevant to any of us unless you are managing the visa issue system at DoS/KCC.
DoS can implement any arbitrary method to give out CN s as long as it helps them manage and monitor the monthly demand/supply of visas based on regions and or individual countries.
So, when ppl mix up known facts with unknowns to formulate hypothesis on CN allocation methods......it become confusing to them!
Best!
ALL numerically limited GC visa categories in which they have set up 'quotas' are meant for the TOTAL in that category, PA+Derv s.
DV category is no exception.
Only visa category where the announced quota is only for primary app. are the H non imm. visas.
Long standing DoS/KCC claim is that they select 100-110k individuals to give away 55k visas at the yr end.
Fact that how they select the the final 55k shows who are the original 100-110k....all of them are WINNERS irrespective of PA or deriv, nothing less nothing more!
Only thing is that PA has to prove eligibility to piggy back the dervs into the 55k quota.
The confusion with DV for some ppl is that they try interpret this basic fact to fit their opinion on the CN allocation methods.
CN 'allocation method' is basically irrelevant to any of us unless you are managing the visa issue system at DoS/KCC.
DoS can implement any arbitrary method to give out CN s as long as it helps them manage and monitor the monthly demand/supply of visas based on regions and or individual countries.
So, when ppl mix up known facts with unknowns to formulate hypothesis on CN allocation methods......it become confusing to them!
Best!
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I do not think KCC requests a large amount of DV applications (by NL1) unnecessararily from selectees and get added an extra work load to them.
I gues that with the prior experience they must know how many selectees do not pursive (as a %) and how many selectees are unsuccessful (as a %) at the interview.
Based on that they would decide the number of selectees in each year.
In the mean time I have a question.
Can anybody be called for interview and at the middle of process, s/he may be adviced that "last visa allocated is given by another contry (same region) few hours ago and hence your case need not to be process further". (middle of the process means delay the police report or at admin review we may ask to come back after several days)
Or the last bunch of selectees who called for interview (say in September) is decided based on the available visa?
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Be optimistic, I don't want to make things exaggerated. So far, there is no obvious evidence that somebody has replaced hypotheses/assumptions into facts. In my comments I carefully distinguish assumptions from facts and cautiously describe relationship between assumptions and facts. It appears that some comments on #1913 are on the borderline, but it is OK!
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dadadada72
Registered Users (C)
please help me, my CN is so high, my 1st letter is dated from 26 of april 2010, some people received their letter later but with a low CN, I dont understand such discrepancy? do i have a chance to receive a visa ? does it matter to reply as soon as possible? I gave a call to KCC today ,they said my file is beeing processed. I am really really anxious bc i really want to end up in usa and this is a real opportunity to seize. Please help me to understand those dyscrepancies???
stonesanjay
Registered Users (C)
dadadada72,
Relax,no CN is too high when God says YES who can say NO?NOBODY.
Just be prayerful and leave the rest to God,he will perfect ALL that concerns you nd ur household.
IT is well with ALL of US on this forum.Stay blessed.
We pray that ALL scheduled for interview in this month of september will see the face of GOD,AMEN!!!!
Let US be praising God for the good things he has bee donig and will continue to d for US on this forum.
It is well with ALL of US,AMEN!!!!
stingmusic
Registered Users (C)
Does any one have an idea about how long time does it take between the arrival of the 2nd NL and the interview????
Thanx in advance
Thanx in advance
dadadada72
Registered Users (C)
thanks for your support , I hope i ll get that famous GC..........
Winners have started receiving thier 2nd interview letter.