December numbers released

[SusieQQQ]

Dear
i have n inquiry about my case i am Egyptian and my case is 29K . are i have any chance to make interview? or i can travel to US and make adjustment status their? which is a best way
2- for my work requirement i traveled allot of time to Europe . is this has a negative impact in my case?
3- one of my child has american citizen because she was born their and i am already baied all invoice means e i have a ZERO bill? is this has any impact in my case ?
thanks allot for your kindly cooperation

You can't travel to the US specifically to do AOS because that is intent to immigrate but you would be entering on a non-immigrant visa for that purpose. If you are already there on a study or work visa, then you could do AOS.
Travelling a lot to Europe is fine, it won't affect your application, and even after you get a green card it's fine as long as you can demonstrate that you are permanently residing in the US (maintain a home there, pay taxed etc).
I'm sorry but I don't understand your third question about a zero bill?

 

[Britsimon]

You can't travel to the US specifically to do AOS because that is intent to immigrate but you would be entering on a non-immigrant visa for that purpose. If you are already there on a study or work visa, then you could do AOS.
Travelling a lot to Europe is fine, it won't affect your application, and even after you get a green card it's fine as long as you can demonstrate that you are permanently residing in the US (maintain a home there, pay taxed etc).
I'm sorry but I don't understand your third question about a zero bill?

I think the zero bill thing means there is no outstanding bill or issue regarding the costs of the birth of the child that happened in the USA.

Ranon, Susie answered your first two questions accurately already.

In answer to the third question - your child being a US citizen has no impact on your case one way or another (meaning it doesn't help nor hinder your case).

Your case number is low, so you should have a good chance to get an interview early BUT it depends what happens on the Egypt special country cutoff - and that is hard to predict.

 

[990]

what about next month? how will progress visa bulletin for europe? any idea?

 

[nerandima]

what about next month? how will progress visa bulletin for europe? any idea?

Let the time to answer that problem...... Better to mind our own business and work hard to stand against our own problem... If there is something to be received, definitely we will get it..... No point of guessing those VB... but better to get advises from the experts in this forum to sort out your problems regarding this process rather than guesses.

 

[vladek15425]

Evening simon
Wanna find out from u ? I saw CN AF 116000, then CN EU 53000, I won't even mention the
Other region....
My question is why on the notification letter they announced 125000 selectees!
But than on other webside they say its 145000?
Assuming that they start from CN 1 to the last number for each region and number are unique!
How come I get over 150000 selectees only for europe and africa without adding the other region?
Hope u undestand what I mean ?
Thanks

 

[SusieQQQ]

Evening simon
Wanna find out from u ? I saw CN AF 116000, then CN EU 53000, I won't even mention the
Other region....
My question is why on the notification letter they announced 125000 selectees!
But than on other webside they say its 145000?
Assuming that they start from CN 1 to the last number for each region and number are unique!
How come I get over 150000 selectees only for europe and africa without adding the other region?
Hope u undestand what I mean ?
Thanks

Numbers are not unique to each region. (I originally thought they were too, but was shown evidence via the CEAC tracker that they're not)

 

[vladek15425]

Numbers are not unique to each region. (I originally thought they were too, but was shown evidence via the CEAC tracker that they're not)

Hi sussieqqq
Isn't it like af1 af2 af3 and eu1 eu2 eu3 oc1 oc2 oc3 ......because its like we saw on other schedule at ankara ambassy. My point is if u add all the selectees u will get way over the 145000 anounced I'm lost a bit ?
The wholes theory in my understading are the people that didn't reply or got illiminated from kcc for fraud .... But their CN numbers are still counted in the whole numbers of selectees ?!!
Ps; sorry for my poor english.

 

[SusieQQQ]

Hi sussieqqq
Isn't it like af1 af2 af3 and eu1 eu2 eu3 oc1 oc2 oc3 ......because its like we saw on other schedule at ankara ambassy. My point is if u add all the selectees u will get way over the 145000 anounced I'm lost a bit ?
The wholes theory in my understading are the people that didn't reply or got illiminated from kcc for fraud .... But their CN numbers are still counted in the whole numbers of selectees ?!!
Ps; sorry for my poor english.

The holes are where problems were found after selection, like duplicate entries. So you may get AF1, AF2 but no AF3 for example because they got eliminated. But to use an extreme example, if they only selected 145k and had to eliminate 100k because of these problems, they wouldn't have enough selectees to fill the quotas. So - I don't know the exact process, if the computer keeps selecting or if they just select a huge amount and cut off selectees once they have enough valid ones - but the number of selectees you see only includes the entries that are validated for further processing. Does that explain it?

 

[vladek15425]

The holes are where problems were found after selection, like duplicate entries. So you may get AF1, AF2 but no AF3 for example because they got eliminated. But to use an extreme example, if they only selected 145k and had to eliminate 100k because of these problems, they wouldn't have enough selectees to fill the quotas. So - I don't know the exact process, if the computer keeps selecting or if they just select a huge amount and cut off selectees once they have enough valid ones - but the number of selectees you see only includes the entries that are validated for further processing. Does that explain it?

Thank u so much
So all the 145000 are validated entries that's makes sense to me now.
Thanks again

 

[Britsimon]

Hi sussieqqq
Isn't it like af1 af2 af3 and eu1 eu2 eu3 oc1 oc2 oc3 ......because its like we saw on other schedule at ankara ambassy. My point is if u add all the selectees u will get way over the 145000 anounced I'm lost a bit ?
The wholes theory in my understading are the people that didn't reply or got illiminated from kcc for fraud .... But their CN numbers are still counted in the whole numbers of selectees ?!!
Ps; sorry for my poor english.

Yes Susie is saying (correctly) that numbers are not unique so as in your example the number 1 could appear for AF, EU and OC.

So, to address the selectees/holes/Case Number issue.

The holes are indeed for disqualified entries. So, taking Africa for example, that has a highest case number of around 116,000 - there are only 61942 selectees for AF region. So, what happened is that they selected 116,000 people in the AF region knowing that there would be something around 50% fraud cases (they would know the percentage roughly). The Case numbers are assigned to those 116k "winners" but then 54,000 entries of the 116k were disqualified - leaving the 62k selectees that were notified. The disqualified entries are never notified (but probably blacklisted for following years).

So - in AF region the numbers move fast because around half the numbers are holes. Out of the 62k selectees the need to allocate about 24k visas (including spouses and children). In reality we don't know the global allocation split between the regions so this 24k figure might vary somewhat.

I have posted previously about the low response rates and the denial rates, so it will take many more than 24k selectees to allocate the 24k visas. The only issue is how many of the 62k will return their forms, or turn up for interview, or qualify for the visa - none of which we know yet - although we could make some educated guesses based on previous years. I think I'll spend some time on that tomorrow...

 

[samolaniyi]

Here are the numbers - passed to me a few minutes ago by a good person...

africa 19400
egypt 11700
ethiopia 13000
Nigeria 8000
EUROPE 13200
SOUTH AMERICA 700
OCEANIA 550
NORTH AMERICA 6
ASIA 3000

These numbers are much lower than expected.

edit - there was a typo for Egypt. Apologies, now corrected.

Hi Britsimon,

I find it difficult to believe that there was no single addition to last month CN in case of Nigeria.

 

[Britsimon]

Incidentally Susie. I'm sure you remember the whole argument with Raevsky about whether dependents are included in the visa count or not. I am (as I have said before) convinced that one case in CEAC represents 1 selectee AND the derivatives. However, I had thought that Raevsky had argued that the announced winners count was only selectees and that family was on top of that - wasn't that his position??

The reason I ask is that his CEAC spreadsheet seems to suggest that the announced winners (i.e. the 140k) includes family members. He has a column that says "winners with fam" and another lower number for "estimated, winners only without dependents". Since there are aroiund 1.6 visas issued per selectee (globally) that suggests there are around 90k selectees this year plus around 50k family members. Is that your understanding?

 

[Britsimon]

Hi Britsimon,

I find it difficult to believe that there was no single addition to last month CN in case of Nigeria.

Those numbers have been confirmed officially now - so you shouldn't find it hard to believe - it is the case. The Nigeria cutoff was 8000 for December and is 8000 for January.

 

[SusieQQQ]

Hi Britsimon,

I find it difficult to believe that there was no single addition to last month CN in case of Nigeria.

This happened last year too as I recall.

 

[vladek15425]

Yes Susie is saying (correctly) that numbers are not unique so as in your example the number 1 could appear for AF, EU and OC.

So, to address the selectees/holes/Case Number issue.

The holes are indeed for disqualified entries. So, taking Africa for example, that has a highest case number of around 116,000 - there are only 61942 selectees for AF region. So, what happened is that they selected 116,000 people in the AF region knowing that there would be something around 50% fraud cases (they would know the percentage roughly). The Case numbers are assigned to those 116k "winners" but then 54,000 entries of the 116k were disqualified - leaving the 62k selectees that were notified. The disqualified entries are never notified (but probably blacklisted for following years).

So - in AF region the numbers move fast because around half the numbers are holes. Out of the 62k selectees the need to allocate about 24k visas (including spouses and children). In reality we don't know the global allocation split between the regions so this 24k figure might vary somewhat.

I have posted previously about the low response rates and the denial rates, so it will take many more than 24k selectees to allocate the 24k visas. The only issue is how many of the 62k will return their forms, or turn up for interview, or qualify for the visa - none of which we know yet - although we could make some educated guesses based on previous years. I think I'll spend some time on that tomorrow...

Wow that's a explicit answer.
One more thing simon, according to u, half of the selctees in africa are somewhere somewhy rejected! Than only about 60k gets notified the problem is being an african my self I know for sure most of us af selectees have derivatives (my self I will have to aply for 4 GC),if I just presume africain aply for CG as a couple than there will be no visa available after 12000 succes aplications or not even.....
Just my opinion

 

[SusieQQQ]

Incidentally Susie. I'm sure you remember the whole argument with Raevsky about whether dependents are included in the visa count or not. I am (as I have said before) convinced that one case in CEAC represents 1 selectee AND the derivatives. However, I had thought that Raevsky had argued that the announced winners count was only selectees and that family was on top of that - wasn't that his position??

The reason I ask is that his CEAC spreadsheet seems to suggest that the announced winners (i.e. the 140k) includes family members. He has a column that says "winners with fam" and another lower number for "estimated, winners only without dependents". Since there are aroiund 1.6 visas issued per selectee (globally) that suggests there are around 90k selectees this year plus around 50k family members. Is that your understanding?

Yes, Raevsky claimed it was principal applicants only and that family members were extra. My understanding is that the announced number selectees includes both winners and dependents. This was based on an information sheet/transcript provided by DoS. Raevsky waved it away ( as he did a couple of other things that conflicted with his theories ) by claiming it was a "typo".

 

[Britsimon]

Wow that's a explicit answer.
One more thing simon, according to u, half of the selctees in africa are somewhere somewhy rejected! Than only about 60k gets notified the problem is being an african my self I know for sure most of us af selectees have derivatives (my self I will have to aply for 4 GC),if I just presume africain aply for CG as a couple than there will be no visa available after 12000 succes aplications or not even.....
Just my opinion

The AF entries in DV2013 were about 4.6 million plus 2.1 million derivatives for a total of 6.7 million. So - AF has an average of around 1.5 people (including family) for every entry. You (with a family of 4) are more blessed than the average AF winner!

 

[Britsimon]

Yes, Raevsky claimed it was principal applicants only and that family members were extra. My understanding is that the announced number selectees includes both winners and dependents. This was based on an information sheet/transcript provided by DoS. Raevsky waved it away ( as he did a couple of other things that conflicted with his theories ) by claiming it was a "typo".

Well it seems he now agrees with your understanding.

 

[vladek15425]

The AF entries in DV2013 were about 4.6 million plus 2.1 million derivatives for a total of 6.7 million. So - AF has an average of around 1.5 people (including family) for every entry. You (with a family of 4) are more blessed than the average AF winner!

That's now a warm answer for me
However I stressed about the derivatives that's not included in the quotas atributed to each country. Because I also checked that argument trigged by reavsky about few weeks ago, and I acutually bought his theory that only principal aplicant were counted. But as for now ur opinionlike u always say seems more logical for me!
Where is he by the way (reavsky) I hope he didn't block me !?!

 

[Britsimon]

That's now a warm answer for me
However I stressed about the derivatives that's not included in the quotas atributed to each country. Because I also checked that argument trigged by reavsky about few weeks ago, and I acutually bought his theory that only principal aplicant were counted. But as for now ur opinionlike u always say seems more logical for me!
Where is he by the way (reavsky) I hope he didn't block me !?!

I'm not sure why Raevsky isn't around anymore. Around May he was very active but had a way of rubbing everyone up the wrong way with his overly direct statements. After he returned from the ban he was noticeably more mellow (usually) and even positive and nice to people on occaision - but that meant less cut and thrust of argument and I think that might have bored him...