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December numbers released

Vladek, One more thing to add to the explanation that I gave earlier - if we believe that the announced selectees number includes derivatives (which I now do) BUT the derivatives don't have their own case number (which they don't as can be seen in CEAC) then the actual number of selectees for AF this year must be around 40,000, not 62,000. So the DQ rate prior to notification is even larger than the 50% I mentioned - and there are more holes than selectees in AF region.
 
britsimon said:
Vladek, One more thing to add to the explanation that I gave earlier - if we believe that the announced selectees number includes derivatives (which I now do) BUT the derivatives don't have their own case number (which they don't as can be seen in CEAC) then the actual number of selectees for AF this year must be around 40,000, not 62,000. So the DQ rate prior to notification is even larger than the 50% I mentioned - and there are more holes than selectees in AF region.
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Simon u surpised us with the cut offs I have to give it to I was expecting gabam to do so!
But now wanna ask u ? Can't u call KCC and and find out about the derevatives , included
Not included !?
My wife is moaning lol she says I spent more time on dv forum than I do with her haha
 
vladek15425 said:
Simon u surpised us with the cut offs I have to give it to I was expecting gabam to do so!
But now wanna ask u ? Can't u call KCC and and find out about the derevatives , included
Not included !?
My wife is moaning lol she says I spent more time on dv forum than I do with her haha
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Whe you call KCC you don't get through to people that really understand the process. The staff have limited info and are either unaware of things or possibly told not to discuss some aspects. To us it is important, to them, it is just a job.

However in this case we have two sources of info - the document that Susie mentioned and the Ceac spreadsheet. I'm pretty sure the announced 140k includes family.
 
britsimon said:
Whe you call KCC you don't get through to people that really understand the process. The staff have limited info and are either unaware of things or possibly told not to discuss some aspects. To us it is important, to them, it is just a job.

However in this case we have two sources of info - the document that Susie mentioned and the Ceac spreadsheet. I'm pretty sure the announced 140k includes family.
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I'm also prety sure it incluces familly members! Can't wait for u guys to lighten up that point.
Hope u and kayend will get hold of ceac data, u doing a great job thamb up
By the way I like the whole things between u and sloner keeps me verry inquisitive to see who's
Gonna smile at the end :):):) I'm on ur side actually I belive heavy that
His calculations are corrupted since he's basing everyting on dv 12 data lol
 
Applicants registered for the DV-2014 program were selected at random from 9,374,191 qualified entries (14,633,767 with derivatives): this is clearly written in official site.....
britsimon said:
Vladek, One more thing to add to the explanation that I gave earlier - if we believe that the announced selectees number includes derivatives (which I now do) BUT the derivatives don't have their own case number (which they don't as can be seen in CEAC) then the actual number of selectees for AF this year must be around 40,000, not 62,000. So the DQ rate prior to notification is even larger than the 50% I mentioned - and there are more holes than selectees in AF region.
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Tazmania said:
I'm sure not. It says 140K have been notified.
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Somewhere on this site I posted an information briefing that included a Q&A with DoS. They were specifically asked this question and they specifically answered that the number of selectees announced includes both the principal applicants and derivatives.
 
help meeeeeeeeeeeee

SusieQQQ said:
Somewhere on this site I posted an information briefing that included a Q&A with DoS. They were specifically asked this question and they specifically answered that the number of selectees announced includes both the principal applicants and derivatives.
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hello all u all are expert to this field so can any one tell me when i get my 2nl my case no is 33** from asia plz reply asap.
 
nujan said:
hello all u all are expert to this field so can any one tell me when i get my 2nl my case no is 33** from asia plz reply asap.
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Your interview will be February or March of next year. You will get your appointment date (2nl) in January or February.
 
britsimon said:
Yes Susie is saying (correctly) that numbers are not unique so as in your example the number 1 could appear for AF, EU and OC.

So, to address the selectees/holes/Case Number issue.

The holes are indeed for disqualified entries. So, taking Africa for example, that has a highest case number of around 116,000 - there are only 61942 selectees for AF region. So, what happened is that they selected 116,000 people in the AF region knowing that there would be something around 50% fraud cases (they would know the percentage roughly). The Case numbers are assigned to those 116k "winners" but then 54,000 entries of the 116k were disqualified - leaving the 62k selectees that were notified. The disqualified entries are never notified (but probably blacklisted for following years).

So - in AF region the numbers move fast because around half the numbers are holes. Out of the 62k selectees the need to allocate about 24k visas (including spouses and children). In reality we don't know the global allocation split between the regions so this 24k figure might vary somewhat.

I have posted previously about the low response rates and the denial rates, so it will take many more than 24k selectees to allocate the 24k visas. The only issue is how many of the 62k will return their forms, or turn up for interview, or qualify for the visa - none of which we know yet - although we could make some educated guesses based on previous years. I think I'll spend some time on that tomorrow...
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Dear Britsimon,
Dose 61942 selectees for AF region,including spouses and children?
 
His calculations are corrupted since he's basing everyting on dv 12 data lol
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including the brain. What damage in DV12, you are Britisimon talking complete nonsense. In July 2011, had a second draw and it was normal. How do you figure it can not? Why do you believe this troll Raevsky. It is fun and laughing at you.
 
Btw on the derivatives thing. This is the reason you get disqualified if you've left them off : because KCC have based the selection on total numbers. They obviously have leeway for 'newly acquired' family members but their calculations are based on the total number of visas they want to issue based on total potential eligible people including derivatives (I hope I've explained this clearly).
 
samolaniyi said:
Hi Britsimon,

I find it difficult to believe that there was no single addition to last month CN in case of Nigeria.
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Is there a chance that the next bulletins will have better figures than this? I am not happy with this bulletin, at all!!! Not happy with the cutoff for Africa. I thought they would at least go beyond 22,000!!!! Do I really stand a chance to be current in Feb/March?
What do my dear forum members think?
 
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