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December numbers released

Tazmania said:
I doubt that and would rather say 33xxx are the last numbers that will have a chance for an interview.
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My reasoning is this.

Last year EU hit 33k in Jul then had two further months of CURRENT. In the end, the visas were slightly underfilled (i.e. the 50k wasn't hit). I don't expect to see the word CURRENT in Aug/September, but I cant see any reason why there would be less successful EU winners this year. In fact I actually think EU will get a larger slice of the cake, but even without that we should see about the same - right?

So - let's say we hit 33K in July again (even though we are currently 1 month ahead of 2013). I imagine there has to be some increase in Aug and Sept - I would hope up to around 28/40 at least.
 
You'll only see the same if the return rate is similar (I'm assuming success rate probably similar as there were no country eligibility changes). That's the big unknown.
 
SusieQQQ said:
You'll only see the same if the return rate is similar (I'm assuming success rate probably similar as there were no country eligibility changes). That's the big unknown.
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True. That is a variable that we don't know yet - although the low increase makes me think it is higher than KCC expected (which would not bode well). So that troubles me and also the low number (30532) quoted in the CEAC data spreadsheet. So the VB was at 33 in July but 31 in June - so according to Raevskys data no one who became current in Jul through September even got scheduled or in to CEAC. That is very odd.
 
I assume that the return rate is much higher this year because there is a good chance that they replace the lottery next year.
 
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britsimon said:
Here are the numbers - passed to me a few minutes ago by a good person...

africa 19400
egypt 11700
ethiopia 13000
Nigeria 8000
EUROPE 13200
SOUTH AMERICA 700
OCEANIA 550
NORTH AMERICA 6
ASIA 3000

These numbers are much lower than expected.

edit - there was a typo for Egypt. Apologies, now corrected.
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Thanks Britsimon
 
In 2012 the cut-offs for may were 40k so I figured it's possible to be the same this year. However, if not, do you think I'll ever get scheduled if I get to current in July-Sept period? After all, my cut off is a little above 33k.
 
tearshred said:
In 2012 the cut-offs for may were 40k so I figured it's possible to be the same this year. However, if not, do you think I'll ever get scheduled if I get to current in July-Sept period? After all, my cut off is a little above 33k.
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2012 is not a good comparison because there was a redraw that year that messed everything up.

With your number I would be AMAZED if you did not get your interview.
 
I am at a loss to know what to think with Oceania... Am thinking 1500 - 1800 will be the cut off point.
 
mijoro said:
I am at a loss to know what to think with Oceania... Am thinking 1500 - 1800 will be the cut off point.
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That would just be too sad. I just can't believe there was no good reason why OC had a doubling of selectees whilst the global increase was 30%. I really want to believe the OC quota was increased...
 
britsimon said:
2012 is not a good comparison because there was a redraw that year that messed everything up.

With your number I would be AMAZED if you did not get your interview.
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It somehow crucially important for me to know what should I expect since I already have a job offer waiting for the interview to pass. Will I make a mistake by calling the KCC and explaining them the situation to check the status?
 
tearshred said:
It somehow crucially important for me to know what should I expect since I already have a job offer waiting for the interview to pass. Will I make a mistake by calling the KCC and explaining them the situation to check the status?
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You can call them but it will be a complete waste of your time - they have no more idea than we do about what will happen. It depends on how many people respond, how many people turn up for interviews, how many people get approved/denied - and no one can say for sure what will happen in all those things. Sorry to say, you are going to have to wait and see what happens - but as I said I am highly confident that EU33k will get an interview. There is almost no one who has predicted otherwise that I am aware of.
 
tearshred said:
It somehow crucially important for me to know what should I expect since I already have a job offer waiting for the interview to pass. Will I make a mistake by calling the KCC and explaining them the situation to check the status?
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They won't be able to answer. They cannot predict the return rate or documents, number of fraud cases and APs so you will get the same answer as others: "you need to check the bulletin and wait for your number to get current".
 
britsimon said:
You can call them but it will be a complete waste of your time - they have no more idea than we do about what will happen. It depends on how many people respond, how many people turn up for interviews, how many people get approved/denied - and no one can say for sure what will happen in all those things. Sorry to say, you are going to have to wait and see what happens - but as I said I am highly confident that EU33k will get an interview. There is almost no one who has predicted otherwise that I am aware of.
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Well at least I can check if I correctly filled my forms and if I didn't I can redo it and send it again, right?
 
Just question about my case

britsimon said:
Here are the numbers - passed to me a few minutes ago by a good person...

africa 19400
egypt 11700
ethiopia 13000
Nigeria 8000
EUROPE 13200
SOUTH AMERICA 700
OCEANIA 550
NORTH AMERICA 6
ASIA 3000

These numbers are much lower than expected.

edit - there was a typo for Egypt. Apologies, now corrected.
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Dear Simon
i have n inquiry about my case i am Egyptian and my case is 29K . are i have a chance to make interview? or i can travel to US and make adjustment status their? which is a best way
2- for my work requirement i traveled allot of time to Europe . is this has a negative impact in my case?
3- one of my child has american citizen because she was born their and i am already baied all invoice means e i have a ZERO bill? is this has any impact in my case ?
thanks allot for your kindly cooperation
 
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i need your advice please

Dear
i have n inquiry about my case i am Egyptian and my case is 29K . are i have any chance to make interview? or i can travel to US and make adjustment status their? which is a best way
2- for my work requirement i traveled allot of time to Europe . is this has a negative impact in my case?
3- one of my child has american citizen because she was born their and i am already baied all invoice means e i have a ZERO bill? is this has any impact in my case ?
thanks allot for your kindly cooperation
 
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