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ceac updated

mijoro said:
Simon has some good news re the amount of Visa's issued to the OC.... :D
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Well it is not really news Mijoro - just clearing up things from earlier.

OC only has 88 visas issued that far, so yes progress has been slow but it isn't moving as fast as we thought yesterday...
 
I confused READY with ISSUED :( my mistake... but hopefully its a good mistake for the higher numbers.
 
britsimon said:
So we could see EU at around 15k by EU35k case number. If we assume EU should get around 17/18k max in the end, then I think you should hold off the beemer (and buy my 911 Cab 4 instead). It's going to be close though - I think you'll be one of the last to squeeze in....
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So the final cut-off will be on 39k-42k range?? This is not good for early 40`s and above.
 
Nerandima said:
Asia will go up to 23k.............. Thank god......
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Yes, if Asia quota is 9k. If it reduce to 8500, it might only progress up to 20k. So Asia progress is very much depends on the regional quota and also assuming the selection process will ignore Nepal and Iran after 15k and 10k respectively because both reached 6k+ selectees on those respective max case#.

I actually try to calculate the max Asia case # for DV14 based on the CEAC data and it turn out to be in the 40k range which some folks reported last few weeks. Based on the CEAC data, every 1k case # it has about 300 selectees from Asia countries except Nepal and Iran. So the total selectees for Asia is 23.5k so if you take out Nepal and Iran which is 12k, it left 11.5k. 11.5k / 300 you will need around 40k case #.
 
raduu said:
So the final cut-off will be on 39k-42k range?? This is not good for early 40`s and above.
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Raduu, let's not lose hope but also try to get mentally prepared for every outcome. Based on the assumptions seems like the cut off for EU will be in the range you mentioned. But at the end of the day, no one knows. Everything will become cleared in the upcoming months.
 
britsimon said:
I think someone at Moscow embassy must be related to Sloner. Moscow are putting cases on AP that haven't even interviewed yet. So its a fair bet they have discovered how much fun AP is and are busily screwing things up. Nearly 350 of those 872 are in Moscow.

Apart from that snce the 2013 comparison was in May it is a fair bet that many of those early cases were resolved by that time. So - yes AP seems too common but I am not taking that as real.
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Yes I noticed that too, 145 AP cases in Russia, followed by Albania with 52 cases. Surprisingly Ukraine and Turkey have a lower AP rate compared to all the fraud talk we have heard.
 
raduu said:
So the final cut-off will be on 39k-42k range?? This is not good for early 40`s and above.
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That would be logical with the total of 54k EU case numbers and the 35% additional selectees vs dv13: 54/1.35 = 40k.

On the other hand, who really knows what will happen? When I see that there has been 'only' 1269 successful cases in 3 months of interviews (Oct thru Dec), this gives some hope to the high CN numbers.

Looking quickly at the table for EU (thanks Raevsky btw, you did a great job again):
4062 cases in the CEAC database
9219 aplicants with derivatives
=> 2.27 applicants for each CN case

Don't forget the AOS cases that are not there. They normally represent 5-10% of all dv visas. Refusal rates usually are in the same order of magnitude.

All this being said, we can extrapolate for the remaining months, taking whatever assumption we like :p

We need to stay optmistic in these early days of 2014 :)
 
House409 said:
That would be logical with the total of 54k EU case numbers and the 35% additional selectees vs dv13: 54/1.35 = 40k.

On the other hand, who really knows what will happen? When I see that there has been 'only' 1269 successful cases in 3 months of interviews (Oct thru Dec), this gives some hope to the high CN numbers.

Looking quickly at the table for EU (thanks Raevsky btw, you did a great job again):
4062 cases in the CEAC database
9219 aplicants with derivatives
=> 2.27 applicants for each CN case

Don't forget the AOS cases that are not there. They normally represent 5-10% of all dv visas. Refusal rates usually are in the same order of magnitude.

All this being said, we can extrapolate for the remaining months, taking whatever assumption we like :p

We need to stay optmistic in these early days of 2014 :)
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That just about sums it up nicely.
 
One interesting point it that all regions visa issued is 7369 after 3 months progress. If we take 3/12 x 50,000 it should be 12,500 for 3 months. So far it only fulfilled 58.9% of the targeted quota of 12,500. So, global quota should be 42,000 after minus 10% of AOS and others potential missing data from CEAC for the remaining 9 months. 42,000 visa to be issue in remaining 9 months, so we should expect some bigger jump for the coming months.
 
Hey guys what is the progress with SA? Think that's the one region that hasn't been discussed much yet. Is it only going to go up to a cn of 2000 or can it go higher?
 
kayend said:
One interesting point it that all regions visa issued is 7369 after 3 months progress. If we take 3/12 x 50,000 it should be 12,500 for 3 months. So far it only fulfilled 58.9% of the targeted quota of 12,500. So, global quota should be 42,000 after minus 10% of AOS and others potential missing data from CEAC for the remaining 9 months. 42,000 visa to be issue in remaining 9 months, so we should expect some bigger jump for the coming months.
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If you look at the number of interviews scheduled last year at the Warsaw consulate (you can retrieve last year monthly schedules by replacing the month you want to look at from the following http adress: http://photos.state.gov/libraries/poland/275705/cons_iv/DV Appt Jan 2014.pdf - beware the month description is case sensitive), you will notice there are much more interviews in the early month of the year compared to Oct to Dec. One explanation is the big jump in cutoff numbers as the fiscal year progresses. What I am trying to say here is that the progression is not necessarily linear. Also, don't forget there is a bunch of applicants who are late in checking their ESC status and discover in the middle of the year they have been selected. I think this is particularly true in October when people apply for the next year lottery and just realize they must check their ESC status. Those winners who are already current submit their application right after in Oct/Nov and get scheduled by KCC for the month of Jan. This is maybe the explanation of the slow progression fo Jan.

I tend to agree with you that we should see some jumps in the coming months. Hopefully...:cool:
 
Interesting. 5 African cases no longer show data in CEAC. They were OK in the morning.
2412 - Issued
2935 - Issued
7707 - Ready
10340 - Refused
14258 - Ready

I really have no idea why the data is different now

same thing for
For Asia
1342 - Issued
2908 - Ready
 
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raevsky said:
Interesting. 5 African cases no longer show data in CEAC. They were OK in the morning.
2412 - Issued
2935 - Issued
7707 - Ready
10340 - Refused
14258 - Ready
I really have no idea why the data is different now
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Then,every discussion that we had made based on CEAC datas went on vain?or how should we take it further?
 
raevsky said:
Interesting. 5 African cases no longer show data in CEAC. They were OK in the morning.
2412 - Issued
2935 - Issued
7707 - Ready
10340 - Refused
14258 - Ready

I really have no idea why the data is different now
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Human error? New information/case develpment? Status update?

2014 CEAC data seems to be sound/legit considering that people can find their visas in it but...

I'm guessing since DV2014 is ongoing, CEAC is being constantly updated and final numbers after double/triple/quadruple :) checking will be available following final days of DV2014. For now we have to deal with what's available.
 
franko said:
Human error? New information/case develpment? Status update?

2014 CEAC data seems to be sound/legit considering that people can find their visas in it but...

I'm guessing since DV2014 is ongoing, CEAC is being constantly updated and final numbers after double/triple/quadruple :) checking will be available following final days of DV2014. For now we have to deal with what's available.
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Don't see how re updated - issued and refused both final (ours still says issued from DV2013 so I don't think they update it at all after that) and ready remains so too... I think it does however support the point that one needs to be wary relying on CEAC data as a full accounting of the data.
 
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