• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

ceac updated

Sloner said:
In Moscow, everything is fine, Russian, unlike Africa and Ukraine less cheating. England does not play the lottery, so I can not say about it.
Click to expand...

Yeah, Russia is a country respected for its sense of fair play and respect for the rules. So you think it is just Russian brain freeze?
 
britsimon said:
The thing is the progress according to the VBs is not equal acroos the regions. EU is further ahead than other regions - I have been describing that as being over a month ahead bcause of a comparison to DV2013 progress. You can see what I mean at this link http://www.dv-info.site40.net/

AF is behind the same point in DV2013. I wouldn't be surprised to see it catch up with EU a little although I do think that EU cases should be, on average, easier than AF and AS cases so EU may stay in the lead for some months to come.
Click to expand...

You can't be sure in that. May be the trend will be the same for the whole period. Of course I can't be 100% sure in what I'm just guessing but as well I can't make final conclusions like you and raevski, no hard feelings of course, I like to read you both.
 
denitsa_zz said:
You can't be sure in that. May be the trend will be the same for the whole period. Of course I can't be 100% sure in what I'm just guessing but as well I can't make final conclusions like you and raevski, no hard feelings of course, I like to read you both.
Click to expand...

Oh yeah I absolutely agree - none of us can be sure of anything.
 
Yeah, Russia is a country respected for its sense of fair play and respect for the rules. So you think it is just Russian brain freeze?
Click to expand...
I do not understand. I think brain freeze occurred elsewhere.
 
Sloner said:
I do not understand. I think brain freeze occurred elsewhere.
Click to expand...


OK let's take a number as an example. Check 2014EU16590 on CEAC. That number only went current for February - meaning the interview isn't due to happen for weeks - but they are already marked as being on AP. Could you explain that?
 
britsimon said:
OK let's take a number as an example. Check 2014EU16590 on CEAC. That number only went current for February - meaning the interview isn't due to happen for weeks - but they are already marked as being on AP. Could you explain that?
Click to expand...

That could be because some important information is missing from the documents sent to KCC.
 
raevsky said:
That could be because some important information is missing from the documents sent to KCC.
Click to expand...

Morning Raevsky. That would make sense, BUT there are 43 like that for CNs > 12500 (the December cutoff) and only in Moscow. There are 55 Moscow cases on READY after 12500. So - only Moscow puts cases on AP because of missing documents and nearly half the scheduled interviews were missing significant details from the forms submitted to KCC? Nope - doesn't sound right. Sorry Raevsky I think your countrymen have screwed up.
 
OK let's take a number as an example. Check 2014EU16590 on CEAC. That number only went current for February - meaning the interview isn't due to happen for weeks - but they are already marked as being on AP. Could you explain that?
Click to expand...
\
I realized - administrative processing.
Maybe it fraud or duplicates. On Russian forums are no stories on the appointment of members of the forum administrative check. In the past, these stories were.
 
What I clearly see is the increased rate of refusals for OC and SA.
If you calculate best refusal rate as refused/(issed + admin) (when all admin are issued in the end),
average refusal rate as refused/issued,
worst refusal rate as (refused + admin)/issued (when all admin are refused in the end)

It looks like for OC and SA best refusal rate for 2014 is still higher than worst refusal rate for 2013.
That means actual passing number for SA and especially for OC might be higher than I thought. For OC maybe 10%-15% higher. And for SA 5%-7% higher.

Not sure why it happens, but it would be interesting to see split by county.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
raevsky said:
What I clearly see is the increased rate of refusals for OC and SA.
If you calculate best refusal rate as refused/(issed + admin) (when all admin are issued in the end),
average refusal rate as refused/issued,
worst refusal rate as (refused + admin)/issued (when all admin are refused in the end)

It looks like for OC and SA best refusal rate for 2014 is still higher than worst refusal rate for 2013.
That means actual passing number for SA and especially for OC might be higher than I thought. For OC maybe 10%-15% higher. And for SA 5%-7% higher.

Not sure why it happens, but it would be interesting to see split by county.
Click to expand...

I think its because of the double number of the selectees of those two regions ! They are probably strengthening the selection criteria, since they can now pick and choose!
 
It could be an intention in all that process from the very beginning. They could use an additional check now that affects mostly OC and SA. They might have though about it from the very beginning, and that is why they increased the number of winners for OC and SA much more than for other regions. I wonder how they changed the criteria.
 
Per country split shows increase in refusal rates only for 2 countries.
OC - Fiji, SA - Cuba. For Fiji it is about 50% refusal rate, for Cuba it is smaller but still huge. That is very interesting. Other countries in SA and OC are not affected.
 
From Raevsky's table, when I look at the status update dates for the EU 'ready' cases (column H), it seems the big majority of them have been updated in Nov and Dec. Almost none are from an update in Oct.
Do you think the 'ready' cases, scheduled in October, and whose applicants did not show up at the date of their scheduled interviews are removed from the CEAC database? As if KCC does not consider these cases as valid anymore, ie the applicant not showing up is considered as abondoning his/her application?
 
Only small amount of Ready cases was removed in DV-13, a lot of Ready cases still exist in the final table. I would think Ready cases have some kind of a problem that allowed to eliminate them later, but was not noticed initially. For instance, if a form arrives without a signature - that could be a good example.
 
raevsky said:
Only small amount of Ready cases was removed in DV-13, a lot of Ready cases still exist in the final table. I would think Ready cases have some kind of a problem that allowed to eliminate them later, but was not noticed initially. For instance, if a form arrives without a signature - that could be a good example.
Click to expand...

Don't you think the form w/o signature would be an AP before the interview took place? And not a ready case?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top