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ceac updated

britsimon said:
So Africa and EU already have nearly 3000 visas issued each.

AF have achieved 2897 visas issued from 1500 rows with 5500 people sitting on READY status from 3000 rows (i.e. awaiting interview in Jan and Feb or possible no shows). That is out of the first 21750 CNs, so roughly 20% through the selectees. Out of the 5500 we could assume that at least 2000 will get visas, so it is very clear that this is not all all like the 2012 numbers - the first 21.75k will probably end up with a yield as many as 6k visas (including those not yet responded and aos) It is VERY clear proof (if anyone still needed) that Sloners theories are incorrect. That isn't a surprise to most of us I am sure, but it also is a sad confirmation of the reality for high CNs.

Country cutoffs should mean slightly lower yields from higher ranges, but even so, numbers for AF higher than 80/90k are very much in the risky zone.
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Hi Simon,

Can't really look at the data (in a meeting at work - important :) ). How is Europe doing ?? Should I be buying that Beemer and stop saving for the US ?? :)
 
franko said:
Hi Simon,

Can't really look at the data (in a meeting at work - important :) ). How is Europe doing ?? Should I be buying that Beemer and stop saving for the US ?? :)
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OK here is my first thoughts on EU. EU is ahead of the other regions in terms of case number progress. At 16,700 it is around 35% through the cases.

So far there are 2957 visas issued from 1267 rows. 5181 people sit on ready status (2345 rows). 204 cases (75 rows) have been refused already and 872 cases (372 rows) are on AP. Some of the 2345 rows will always sit on READY meaning the case is abandoned - a no show. However, not that many so we need to deduce how many of the 5181 will get visas. If we assume about 50% of the AP cases get resolved and end up with visas, then the success rate amongst those that have responded is about 85%. So - those 5181 cases will add around 4000 visas issued (at least).

That means the first third of CNs will have yielded around 7000 visas, (excluding those not yet responded and aos) so maybe as high as 8000 visas max (including aos etc). Yields should be lower from the next 16/17k case numbers because the big countries may be cut out by then. So we could see EU at around 15k by EU35k case number. If we assume EU should get around 17/18k max in the end, then I think you should hold off the beemer (and buy my 911 Cab 4 instead). It's going to be close though - I think you'll be one of the last to squeeze in....
 
raevsky said:
CEAC data for 01/01/2014 (DV-14) compared to 5/27/2013 (DV-13)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmbWzexdyvIldEJKVl80MGJRN1dCLWRmcHV5LTcxRmc&usp=sharing
The reason why I compare to 5/27 version is that some rows with Ready status were removed from later DV-13 CEAC versions.

Interpretation will follow.
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Thank you very much Raevsky,You have been doing really a great work!I pray for your work!!!I request you to predict for highest case number that will be interviewed from Nepal and Asia as well!please i expect your view!!!Other friends are also requested to give their opinion!!!
 
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oskarson said:
Thank you very much Raevsky,You have been doing really a great work!I pray for your work!!!I request you to predict for highest case number that will be interviewed from Nepal and Asia as well!please i expect your view!!!Other friends are also requested to give their opinion!!!
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Nepal might be hitting their country limit in 10-11k (assuming it distribution, success rate and take up rate is the same as the first 2650 case #). For Asia, it might goes as high as 23k if Asia quota is about 9k. So, it is really interesting to see whether KCC is going to put Nepal and Iran into special cut off or not in Mar cut off.
 
I m having a feeling that Iran might be in special cut off for march (as most of the case numbers are below 8000)
N have a high jump in Asia cut off.. (only an opinion)
 
britsimon said:
OK here is my first thoughts on EU. EU is ahead of the other regions in terms of case number progress. At 16,700 it is around 35% through the cases.

So far there are 2957 visas issued from 1267 rows. 5181 people sit on ready status (2345 rows). 204 cases (75 rows) have been refused already and 872 cases (372 rows) are on AP. Some of the 2345 rows will always sit on READY meaning the case is abandoned - a no show. However, not that many so we need to deduce how many of the 5181 will get visas. If we assume about 50% of the AP cases get resolved and end up with visas, then the success rate amongst those that have responded is about 85%. So - those 5181 cases will add around 4000 visas issued (at least).

That means the first third of CNs will have yielded around 7000 visas, (excluding those not yet responded and aos) so maybe as high as 8000 visas max (including aos etc). Yields should be lower from the next 16/17k case numbers because the big countries may be cut out by then. So we could see EU at around 15k by EU35k case number. If we assume EU should get around 17/18k max in the end, then I think you should hold off the beemer (and buy my 911 Cab 4 instead). It's going to be close though - I think you'll be one of the last to squeeze in....
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Thx S,

As I mentioned before it won't be a tragedy if I don't get the visa but it would be great to grab a pint somewhere on Fisherman's Wharf next year :)

I think next 7-8 months will be very intense on the forum. Bring it on :)
 
When you guys talk about specific cut offs like Nepal n such saying that they are going to hit their limit, do you mean for the rest of the year or the limit for that month? Could Nepal stop processing way before the others in the asian region.
 
mijoro said:
When you guys talk about specific cut offs like Nepal n such saying that they are going to hit their limit, do you mean for the rest of the year or the limit for that month? Could Nepal stop processing way before the others in the asian region.
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Yes, Nepal might hit their country limit before all Nepalese can get their interview scheduled because of their high take up and success rate from the first 4000 - 4500 selectees.
 
Quick question,

Referring to the EU tab, seems like the 2014 CEAC data for Jan 2014 are more compared to the CEAC data for May 2013. (4062 instances for Jan 2014 v.s 3660 instances for May 2013) In addition, I couldn't help but notice that the rate of Refusal and AP is quite high for the 2014 data.

Thoughts anyone...
 
urbanite said:
Quick question,

Referring to the EU tab, seems like the 2014 CEAC data for Jan 2014 are more compared to the CEAC data for May 2013. (4062 instances for Jan 2014 v.s 3660 instances for May 2013) In addition, I couldn't help but notice that the rate of Refusal and AP is quite high for the 2014 data.

Thoughts anyone...
Click to expand...


We were discussing this earlier in the thread. The 2013 data is missing some data - Raevsky calls it the Sloner effect. It seems they were piloting something about the CEAC data last year that meant it was not complete.

Regarding the APs I've emailed Raevsky because I noticed there are a number of cases noted as AP where the interviews haven't taken place yet. So the AP rate is questionable but the refusal rate seems accurate to me.
 
Well I guess we have approximately 12 days till we find out the next jump, it will be interesting to see what happens. This DV lottery stuff is like living in a Thriller novel with no idea whats going to happen next.
 
mijoro said:
Well I guess we have approximately 12 days till we find out the next jump, it will be interesting to see what happens. This DV lottery stuff is like living in a Thriller novel with no idea whats going to happen next.
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True that !!!!
 
britsimon said:
We were discussing this earlier in the thread. The 2013 data is missing some data - Raevsky calls it the Sloner effect. It seems they were piloting something about the CEAC data last year that meant it was not complete.

Regarding the APs I've emailed Raevsky because I noticed there are a number of cases noted as AP where the interviews haven't taken place yet. So the AP rate is questionable but the refusal rate seems accurate to me.
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Thank you for the explanation Simon.

Considerin Sloner effect (missing data in CEAC for the first 3 months), again for:

2014 (accounting for Oct to Dec) --> there are 372 instances ,translated into 872 visas, marked as AP
2013 (accounting for Oct to April/May) --> there are 191 instances ,translated into 323 visas, are marked as AP

Might it be that embassies & consulates are assigning more cases under AP or that is not the case ?
 
urbanite said:
Thank you for the explanation Simon.

Considerin Sloner effect (missing data in CEAC for the first 3 months), again for:

2014 (accounting for Oct to Dec) --> there are 372 instances ,translated into 872 visas, marked as AP
2013 (accounting for Oct to April/May) --> there are 191 instances ,translated into 323 visas, are marked as AP

Might it be that embassies & consulates are assigning more cases under AP or that is not the case ?
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I think someone at Moscow embassy must be related to Sloner. Moscow are putting cases on AP that haven't even interviewed yet. So its a fair bet they have discovered how much fun AP is and are busily screwing things up. Nearly 350 of those 872 are in Moscow.

Apart from that snce the 2013 comparison was in May it is a fair bet that many of those early cases were resolved by that time. So - yes AP seems too common but I am not taking that as real.
 
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