Britsimon
Super Moderator
I'm hoping for a bit more than that (40k plus) but yes - Raevsky is thinking the numbers could be in that range - I think he is now expecting a max of around 38k
CEAC Data Up to 02-02-2014
- Thread starter rafikbo76
- Start date
I'm hoping for a bit more than that (40k plus) but yes - Raevsky is thinking the numbers could be in that range - I think he is now expecting a max of around 38k
GREAT F*KIN NEWS!!! I'm gonna go and get drunk now, to celebrate before even becoming current!
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Why were worried for your cn? You will current at the worst case in august!
Your number is in the very safe range !
I don't know, perhaps because of this waiting anxiety.
GregGalant
Registered Users (C)
Sloner and Simon are light in tunel 
)
Just kidding... will it goes what it should to go.
Simons prediction is most realistic for me.
)Just kidding... will it goes what it should to go.
Simons prediction is most realistic for me.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Мой друг, я желаю вам, но мне что-то хорошее!
Britsimon
Super Moderator
No. Only Egyptians.
So, Britsimon, given your assumption that OC's regional allocation has in 2014 increased from 2 to 3 per cent, do you still believe Oceania cases only in the low 2000s will be safe, or do you now think they're also likely to process higher? Regardless, if OC processing speeds don't hurry up soon, I guess the higher case numbers won't get interviews even if technically there may have been visas available.
CollingwoodRuck
Registered Users (C)
Hi Britsimon,
Thank you for you considered reply ... I understand what you are saying but I think you are trying to read too much into some simple data.
First of all, if we really wanted to analyse the 'quota by Region' split, we should start with the population of the eligible countries in the region and calculate percentages etc! This would be a waste of time as I am sure there are 'adjustments' applied. But fortunately we have a great substitute in just analysing OC and SA.
The population of OC is about 40m (OK 38m but close enough). The population of eligible countries in SA is 100m (bit over but also close enough.) So the ratio of visas should be about 1:2.5. OK
But, if you go to your data above we see:
Selectees by Year
OC SA
2012 2001 2002
2013 2193 2206
(THE BIG JUMP)
2014 4215 4602
In short, the number of selectees for both is (in statistical terms) the same.
In fact it is so closely the same, that it may indicate that the software needs a minimum to work with and both regions - being small - get bumped up to the minimum [But that is a wild off-the-cuff guess that has nothing to back it.]
Now I don't know the actual visa allocations for those years but I will bet that SA received more than OC; indeed, I will go out on a limb and say that OC would never have more than SA!
Hence it is only logical to conclude that (in the case of OC and SA at least) selectees ratios are not indicative of ultimate visa ratios.
SORRY.
Now if you turn to the latest CEAC stuff; it is full of detail. And while not totally accurate (as is normal with most statistical samples), it is pretty good and can certainly show trends - especially when we get to the latest as the data builds. The most recent one (OC800 SA 985) is very relevant as it shows where we are at the half way point in the year.
For example, try these numbers:
Globally, totally visas issued 11294; refusals 756 giving a refusal rate of about 6% [756/(756+11294) neglecting AP]
Globally, 30312 warm bodies are either through the process or on their way at the half way mark; given the refusal rate, such a number of warm bodies should result in about 28,500 visas. Double it gives 57,000 for that year; bit high given AOS/late paperwork - but definitely in the ballpark.
The above (tortured) analysis helps to give confidence in using these figures to answer other questions, such as Region ratios.
That half way mark data shows OC at 1.6% of the total - having trended 1.5% and 1.6% in previous releases (which confirms that data is not fluctuating wildly over the year.)
For SA, the half way mark data shows 2.9% - having trended 2.9% and 2.5%.
Which seems to indicate that OC is 1.5% and SA is 3.0% (giving bureaucrats love of round numbers.) - a ratio between them of 1:2 (again not exactly the 1:2.5 we started with from the population numbers - but not out of the ballpark.)
What do you think?
Regards
Thank you for you considered reply ... I understand what you are saying but I think you are trying to read too much into some simple data.
First of all, if we really wanted to analyse the 'quota by Region' split, we should start with the population of the eligible countries in the region and calculate percentages etc! This would be a waste of time as I am sure there are 'adjustments' applied. But fortunately we have a great substitute in just analysing OC and SA.
The population of OC is about 40m (OK 38m but close enough). The population of eligible countries in SA is 100m (bit over but also close enough.) So the ratio of visas should be about 1:2.5. OK
But, if you go to your data above we see:
Selectees by Year
OC SA
2012 2001 2002
2013 2193 2206
(THE BIG JUMP)
2014 4215 4602
In short, the number of selectees for both is (in statistical terms) the same.
In fact it is so closely the same, that it may indicate that the software needs a minimum to work with and both regions - being small - get bumped up to the minimum [But that is a wild off-the-cuff guess that has nothing to back it.]
Now I don't know the actual visa allocations for those years but I will bet that SA received more than OC; indeed, I will go out on a limb and say that OC would never have more than SA!
Hence it is only logical to conclude that (in the case of OC and SA at least) selectees ratios are not indicative of ultimate visa ratios.
SORRY.
Now if you turn to the latest CEAC stuff; it is full of detail. And while not totally accurate (as is normal with most statistical samples), it is pretty good and can certainly show trends - especially when we get to the latest as the data builds. The most recent one (OC800 SA 985) is very relevant as it shows where we are at the half way point in the year.
For example, try these numbers:
Globally, totally visas issued 11294; refusals 756 giving a refusal rate of about 6% [756/(756+11294) neglecting AP]
Globally, 30312 warm bodies are either through the process or on their way at the half way mark; given the refusal rate, such a number of warm bodies should result in about 28,500 visas. Double it gives 57,000 for that year; bit high given AOS/late paperwork - but definitely in the ballpark.
The above (tortured) analysis helps to give confidence in using these figures to answer other questions, such as Region ratios.
That half way mark data shows OC at 1.6% of the total - having trended 1.5% and 1.6% in previous releases (which confirms that data is not fluctuating wildly over the year.)
For SA, the half way mark data shows 2.9% - having trended 2.9% and 2.5%.
Which seems to indicate that OC is 1.5% and SA is 3.0% (giving bureaucrats love of round numbers.) - a ratio between them of 1:2 (again not exactly the 1:2.5 we started with from the population numbers - but not out of the ballpark.)
What do you think?
Regards
MalcomX
Active Member
5162459882
I agree with you simon, last year Africa got 25000, almost 50% of the visas meanwhile 49% of the selected were from Africa, so same percentage..., if we apply same reasoning for DV2014, we have 46% selected from Africa, so from 50000 (nobody can confirm the NACARA theory) if we take 46%, we will have 23000... (between 22000 and 23000 if we remove AOS), so I don't think that Africa will have not less then 22k this year...
I agree with you simon, last year Africa got 25000, almost 50% of the visas meanwhile 49% of the selected were from Africa, so same percentage..., if we apply same reasoning for DV2014, we have 46% selected from Africa, so from 50000 (nobody can confirm the NACARA theory) if we take 46%, we will have 23000... (between 22000 and 23000 if we remove AOS), so I don't think that Africa will have not less then 22k this year...
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
Tony, One issue I have is that, unlike bigger regions, I don't think we have a reliable idea of what the "high number" is for OC. There are some in the 22xx and 23xx but I haven't seen the highest numbers (which I assume would be around 3k). So predicting OC by CN is naturally unreliable. I have a prediction based on cases, not case numbers and I am still hopeful that OC will benefit from the increase in quota and their relatively small demand (i.e. 200 visas here or there in AF is nothing - but huge impact in OC and SA). If OC can get to 1300/1400 visas issued that will cover just about all demand. I actually think that OC has the best chance of the 5 regions of meeting or nearly meeting demand.
To your next point - you are absolutely right. The VB has to speed up otherwise the full potential might not be met. Again, I am hopeful they can catch up there.
I agree with you simon, last year Africa got 25000, almost 50% of the visas meanwhile 49% of the selected were from Africa, so same percentage..., if we apply same reasoning for DV2014, we have 46% selected from Africa, so from 50000 (nobody can confirm the NACARA theory) if we take 46%, we will have 23000... (between 22000 and 23000 if we remove AOS), so I don't think that Africa will have not less then 22k this year...
Welcome My Friend,
Good reasoning as on the other forum
Most of the time, it means, not yet interviewed
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
No ready means the applicant is ready to fly !
vladek, that's the funniest thing I've read since morning! I hear ready to fly!!! Lolest.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Interesting analysis and you are as entitled to it as I am mine. BUT I would have to say yours is totally incorrect. SORRY. ;-)
Firstly, the formulas that calculate visa quotas have NOTHING to do with population and there isn't some mythical minimum for a region as you suggest (check NA region). The DV lottery is governed by visa usage and demand other immigration sources. So for example the UK is ineligible because it constantly breaks the 50k barrier (on visa issuances) but we only have 60 million inhabitants. Compare that to Nigeria for instance with a 170 million population. They are still in and eligible (until next year). So no, the 1:2 ratio and its impact and your theories up to the word SORRY in your post are completely incorrect - of that I am certain.
Now then, is it significant that OC and SA are at 1.5% and 3%? In terms of telegraphing the final allocations or quotas, no that is not at all relevant. I think what it does reiterate is how behind OC is in terms of progress.
That is a very important point - there is nothing that says the progress between the regions has to stay aligned. So, one region could be ahead of another. Some people believe that they will all get to a hard stop per region (the predetermined quota on visa allocations) but I think there might be some fluidity about visa issued quotas and that the quotas are enforced initially by the selectee count (the theory you dissed!). However, this year will be a good (but sad) test of that theory. EU is in the lead at the moment (in terms of progress through the selectee pool), and if that were to stay that way then in theory EU might hit the brick wall first - and we would see a cutoff number that doesn't increase, or perhaps an announcement in the VB.
So about CEAC, yes it is full of detail, and very interesting, but we know it is incomplete, not well updated, not updated uniformly by all embassies and there is a lag for the updates and so on. There are many reasons to not draw too many conclusions from that data. Just to illustrate, the visas issued number globally has jumped by 50% on one month, so we cannot draw conclusions from that, otherwise our conclusions made a month ago would have been destroyed from the data this month.
By the way, the 2013 issuances for OC/SA are 731/938. So yes, SA does get more visas each year, but it is to do with selectee count and relative "desire" to emigrate from your typical SA country versus the desire to leave the big three OC countries, not to do with population. Venezuela is the big country in SA region - and their desire of the last 5 years or so has represented the lions share of the SA visa issuances. If you know anything about the political and economic situation in Venezuela you will understand. So when someone in Venezuela has the chance to emigrate - believe me, they are not pondering what to do in the same way that a winner in Sydney might do...
This link shows visa issuances up to DV2013.
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam...013AnnualReport/FY13AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf
By the way, this video and transcript also describes quite a few interesting facts and procedures, but touches on the "congressionally mandated formula" for how they divide the regions. Well worth a read if you have time.
http://fpc.state.gov/198409.htm
As I said in the beginning, you are entitled to your theories and opinion - so feel free to continue believing what you do and it is good to have the input - so thanks for that.
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