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CEAC Data Up to 02-02-2014

According to the above data, the quotas are pretty much the same as with the previous spread sheet by Raevsky.
AFRICA - 40.20718966%
EUROPE - 40.62333983%
ASIA - 15.04338587%
SA - 2.904196919%
OC - 1.221887728%
NA-0%
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To this I have taken note. Africa not receive 20,000 visas. Do not get it. Maximum 17000-19000.
 
denitsa_zz said:
According to the above data, the quotas are pretty much the same as with the previous spread sheet by Raevsky.
AFRICA - 40.20718966%
EUROPE - 40.62333983%
ASIA - 15.04338587%
SA - 2.904196919%
OC - 1.221887728%
NA-0%

Dear Simon and Vladek, can't you receive that this year the quotas may be much different than last year?
Your comments, please?
Click to expand...

I'm pretty much sure that the quotas will stay the same except for OC region that I belive will receive about 200 increase,
Now obviously if you are refering to nacara I believe about 3k or more easily will be taken and redistruted to
The dv process... But concerning a huge change in the region quotas I don't think it will happen suddenly from a year to an other ...
 
I'm pretty much sure that the quotas will stay the same except for OC region that I belive will receive about 200 increase,
Now obviously if you are refering to nacara I believe about 3k or more easily will be taken and redistruted to
The dv process... But concerning a huge change in the region quotas I don't think it will happen suddenly from a year to an other ...
Click to expand...
It is excluded. Africa dominates more than 5 years. It is a violation of law.
 
denitsa_zz said:
According to the above data, the quotas are pretty much the same as with the previous spread sheet by Raevsky.
AFRICA - 40.20718966%
EUROPE - 40.62333983%
ASIA - 15.04338587%
SA - 2.904196919%
OC - 1.221887728%
NA-0%

Dear Simon and Vladek, can't you receive that this year the quotas may be much different than last year?
Your comments, please?
Click to expand...

I really don't think we can be so precise about quotas based on mid flight and incomplete data. It is interesting - but not indicative of the final allocations because we also know that each region is progressing at different pace - and that could change later, especially as new country limits are introduced.
 
Sloner said:
It is excluded. Africa dominates more than 5 years. It is a violation of law.
Click to expand...
sloner
the quota from af can not drop from 24k to 17k just like that they do it progressivelly, we have already spoke about it!
its only violating your own law lol:rolleyes:
 
Sloner said:
It is excluded. Africa dominates more than 5 years. It is a violation of law.
Click to expand...

I do agree that AF will see a reduction in the relative share this year (read my explanation in post 40 above). However, the reduction that you are suggesting Sloner is a MASSIVE decrease of over 20%. I am suggesting a more modest decrease for AF (about 5%, perhaps a bit more if other regions are allowed to grab the quotas faster). However, I cannot see AF going below about 22k. Equally I can't imagine EU going over 20k, so sorry Sloner - AF will still "dominate" (and that is perfectly well supported by the laws that control the lottery).
 
britsimon said:
I do agree that AF will see a reduction in the relative share this year (read my explanation in post 40 above). However, the reduction that you are suggesting Sloner is a MASSIVE decrease of over 20%. I am suggesting a more modest decrease for AF (about 5%, perhaps a bit more if other regions are allowed to grab the quotas faster). However, I cannot see AF going below about 22k. Equally I can't imagine EU going over 20k, so sorry Sloner - AF will still "dominate" (and that is perfectly well supported by the laws that control the lottery).
Click to expand...

Why not?
2004 - AF decreased its quota with 10.82%; 2005 - AF increased its quota with 11.50%; 2005 - EU decreased its quota with 11%.
 
britsimon said:
I do agree that AF will see a reduction in the relative share this year (read my explanation in post 40 above). However, the reduction that you are suggesting Sloner is a MASSIVE decrease of over 20%. I am suggesting a more modest decrease for AF (about 5%, perhaps a bit more if other regions are allowed to grab the quotas faster). However, I cannot see AF going below about 22k. Equally I can't imagine EU going over 20k, so sorry Sloner - AF will still "dominate" (and that is perfectly well supported by the laws that control the lottery).
Click to expand...

Africa wil hit 25K issued visa, I will manipulate the data ;)
 
denitsa_zz said:
Why not?
2004 - AF decreased its quota with 10.82%; 2005 - AF increased its quota with 11.50%; 2005 - EU decreased its quota with 11%.
Click to expand...

Again. You can't say what the quota was in an underfilled year. A quota is a predetermined limit, whereas the previous year results (unless a limit is hit) display the relative share of visas allocated - NOT the quota. What Sloner is suggesting is a limit that would be hit (a quota) between 17 and 19k). A quota reduction like that (of that magnitude) would only happen if large countries are made ineligible (as will happen with DV2015).

By the way, I haven't checked your numbers, but 2005 was when Russia became ineligible - hence the EU reduction in relative share.
 
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britsimon said:
Again. You can't say what the quota was in an underfilled year. A quota is a predetermined limit, whereas the previous year results (unless a limit is hit) display the relative share of visas allocated - NOT the quota. What Sloner is suggesting is a limit that would be hit (a quota) between 17 and 19k). A quota reduction like that (of that magnitude) would only happen if large countries are made ineligible (as will happen with DV2015).
Click to expand...

OK, Simon, then could you please advice which year there were no uderfilling (filled year)?
 
rafikbo76 said:
Africa wil hit 25K issued visa, I will manipulate the data ;)
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Hmmm - that would be slightly too high - in my opinion. AF have 44% of the selectees and have more time consuming AP cases than other regions such as Europe. I can't see them exceeding their "potential" which, I think, is related to the selectee splits and the relative success rates. By that I mean that 1000 AF selectees will nit yield as many visas as 1000 EU selectees (using EU as an example).
 
britsimon said:
That's the point - this year is unprecedented to have so many selectees to be like to be oversubscribed in all regions.
Click to expand...

Sure, that's my point as well. Looking at the past years till 2003, it looks like all the years were underfilled. So we can not be certain in the quotas %.
 
denitsa_zz said:
Sure, that's my point as well. Looking at the past years till 2003, it looks like all the years were underfilled. So we can not be certain in the quotas %.
Click to expand...

OK so we are in violent agreement about that. However, we do know that AF has been receiving 23 - 24k, so what Sloner is suggesting can only happen through a massive decrease in quota - and we are back where I started a few posts ago...
 
blessedkate

vladek15425 said:
Rafiko is it possible for you to gives us the totals like last time ?
Thanks
Click to expand...

Hi everyone
Thanks for ur posts.am new in dis forum.i wish to knw when my case will be current.2014AF000587**.from Cameroon thanks.i sent in june and was confirmed by kcc around oct.they wrote 'forms received pending processing.thanks
 
That's the point - this year is unprecedented to have so many selectees to be like to be oversubscribed in all regions.
Click to expand...
The reason? I explained calculated. You all a little. Tell the reason. Bring calculations. Not speculation.
 
Sloner said:
The reason? I explained calculated. You all a little. Tell the reason. Bring calculations. Not speculation.
Click to expand...

Sloner, you and I agree on the reason why there are so many selectees - it is because of 2012.

Where you and I do not agree is the likely success rates from the selectees - you think they will be like 2012 - and I don't.

Simple really.
 
So based on that data, EU might hit 35-37k on VB or is it just me?
 
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