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CEAC Data Up to 02-02-2014

So based on that data, EU might hit 35-37k on VB or is it just me?

I'm hoping for a bit more than that (40k plus) but yes - Raevsky is thinking the numbers could be in that range - I think he is now expecting a max of around 38k
 
I'm hoping for a bit more than that (40k plus) but yes - Raevsky is thinking the numbers could be in that range - I think he is now expecting a max of around 38k

GREAT F*KIN NEWS!!! I'm gonna go and get drunk now, to celebrate before even becoming current!
 
I'm hoping for a bit more than that (40k plus) but yes - Raevsky is thinking the numbers could be in that range - I think he is now expecting a max of around 38k
Raevskii thinks a lot. Actually goes quite the opposite. In 2009 he predicted the Asian high numbers - the collapse.
You have double standards.
 
Sloner and Simon are light in tunel :))
Just kidding... will it goes what it should to go.

Simons prediction is most realistic for me.
 
Raevskii thinks a lot. Actually goes quite the opposite. In 2009 he predicted the Asian high numbers - the collapse.
You have double standards.
Мой друг, я желаю вам, но мне что-то хорошее!
 
AF 25000
Except egypt 18000
Does the egypt cut off no apply for sudanese having thier interview in cairo-egypt or it only apply on egyption
 
You can't be sure of the original allocation when you are looking at a partially filled quota - neither the region quota nor the global limit was hit.

I actually think the quota is either signalled by or entirely enforced by the selectee quotas.

What I think happens is the global number of selectees is decided based on a formula to do with the selectee/visa issued rate from the last complete year. DV2012 was 30% underfilled so they increased the selectees this year by 30%. (Big mistake).

OK so next step is to allocate the selectees to the regions. There is a formula that decides the quotas for the region. Again, 2012 is the biggest clue about that. 2012 was a year where they used new software so the quota, I believe, was very clear obvious (round numbers).

2012 selectees (first draw and ignoring NA)
AF 50000
EU 31001
AS 15002
OC 2001
SA 2002
Total 100006

So - EXACT percentages applied to each region, and OC getting 2% of the selectees.

OK so how does 2013 look?

AF 52080
EU 33088
AS 16045
OC 2193
SA 2206
Total 105612

The percentages are:-
49.31
31.33
15.19
2.08
2.09

So OC saw again a 2% allocation. Interestingly, AF region was down by 0.7% and EU and AS region received slight increases. That trend can be seen to continue in 2014:-

61942
46589
23270
4215
4620
140636

Which are the following percentages:-

44.04
33.13
16.55
3.00
3.29

Note that OC has had a 50% increase to 3% but because that was a larger percentage of a larger pot, OC has had a dramatic increase in numbers of selectees (doubled).

The selectee splits also reveal something else quite dramatic. Look at the decrease in AF region - very big drop - and that drop has been shared out to the other 4 regions - 2% for EU, 1% for AS, 1% for OC and 1.3% for SA.

I think this is a big clue to how the qlobal split will be - although I do also believe that regions can benefit through faster processing through its (oversubscribed) pool of selectees. For that to be true it means there would not be a regional cutoff - but I have never seen anything to convince me that a regional cutoff exists - only a regional allocation - which as I have just explained might only be implemented through the selectee split.

Oh by the way, the sudden drop in AF region I think can be explained by the timing of when the quota formula is applied. Nigeria is out for DV2015 because of the amount of immigration through other methods (family and work based). I think the same thing that triggered that knock out was taken in to account in the quota formula for this year even though the rule wasn't applied in time to kncok out Nigeria in DV2014.

So, Britsimon, given your assumption that OC's regional allocation has in 2014 increased from 2 to 3 per cent, do you still believe Oceania cases only in the low 2000s will be safe, or do you now think they're also likely to process higher? Regardless, if OC processing speeds don't hurry up soon, I guess the higher case numbers won't get interviews even if technically there may have been visas available.
 
Hi Britsimon,

Thank you for you considered reply ... I understand what you are saying but I think you are trying to read too much into some simple data.

First of all, if we really wanted to analyse the 'quota by Region' split, we should start with the population of the eligible countries in the region and calculate percentages etc! This would be a waste of time as I am sure there are 'adjustments' applied. But fortunately we have a great substitute in just analysing OC and SA.

The population of OC is about 40m (OK 38m but close enough). The population of eligible countries in SA is 100m (bit over but also close enough.) So the ratio of visas should be about 1:2.5. OK

But, if you go to your data above we see:

Selectees by Year
OC SA
2012 2001 2002
2013 2193 2206
(THE BIG JUMP)
2014 4215 4602

In short, the number of selectees for both is (in statistical terms) the same.
In fact it is so closely the same, that it may indicate that the software needs a minimum to work with and both regions - being small - get bumped up to the minimum [But that is a wild off-the-cuff guess that has nothing to back it.]
Now I don't know the actual visa allocations for those years but I will bet that SA received more than OC; indeed, I will go out on a limb and say that OC would never have more than SA!

Hence it is only logical to conclude that (in the case of OC and SA at least) selectees ratios are not indicative of ultimate visa ratios.
SORRY.

Now if you turn to the latest CEAC stuff; it is full of detail. And while not totally accurate (as is normal with most statistical samples), it is pretty good and can certainly show trends - especially when we get to the latest as the data builds. The most recent one (OC800 SA 985) is very relevant as it shows where we are at the half way point in the year.
For example, try these numbers:
Globally, totally visas issued 11294; refusals 756 giving a refusal rate of about 6% [756/(756+11294) neglecting AP]
Globally, 30312 warm bodies are either through the process or on their way at the half way mark; given the refusal rate, such a number of warm bodies should result in about 28,500 visas. Double it gives 57,000 for that year; bit high given AOS/late paperwork - but definitely in the ballpark.

The above (tortured) analysis helps to give confidence in using these figures to answer other questions, such as Region ratios.
That half way mark data shows OC at 1.6% of the total - having trended 1.5% and 1.6% in previous releases (which confirms that data is not fluctuating wildly over the year.)
For SA, the half way mark data shows 2.9% - having trended 2.9% and 2.5%.

Which seems to indicate that OC is 1.5% and SA is 3.0% (giving bureaucrats love of round numbers.) - a ratio between them of 1:2 (again not exactly the 1:2.5 we started with from the population numbers - but not out of the ballpark.)

What do you think?

Regards
 
5162459882

I do agree that AF will see a reduction in the relative share this year (read my explanation in post 40 above). However, the reduction that you are suggesting Sloner is a MASSIVE decrease of over 20%. I am suggesting a more modest decrease for AF (about 5%, perhaps a bit more if other regions are allowed to grab the quotas faster). However, I cannot see AF going below about 22k. Equally I can't imagine EU going over 20k, so sorry Sloner - AF will still "dominate" (and that is perfectly well supported by the laws that control the lottery).

I agree with you simon, last year Africa got 25000, almost 50% of the visas meanwhile 49% of the selected were from Africa, so same percentage..., if we apply same reasoning for DV2014, we have 46% selected from Africa, so from 50000 (nobody can confirm the NACARA theory) if we take 46%, we will have 23000... (between 22000 and 23000 if we remove AOS), so I don't think that Africa will have not less then 22k this year...:D
 
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So, Britsimon, given your assumption that OC's regional allocation has in 2014 increased from 2 to 3 per cent, do you still believe Oceania cases only in the low 2000s will be safe, or do you now think they're also likely to process higher? Regardless, if OC processing speeds don't hurry up soon, I guess the higher case numbers won't get interviews even if technically there may have been visas available.


Tony, One issue I have is that, unlike bigger regions, I don't think we have a reliable idea of what the "high number" is for OC. There are some in the 22xx and 23xx but I haven't seen the highest numbers (which I assume would be around 3k). So predicting OC by CN is naturally unreliable. I have a prediction based on cases, not case numbers and I am still hopeful that OC will benefit from the increase in quota and their relatively small demand (i.e. 200 visas here or there in AF is nothing - but huge impact in OC and SA). If OC can get to 1300/1400 visas issued that will cover just about all demand. I actually think that OC has the best chance of the 5 regions of meeting or nearly meeting demand.

To your next point - you are absolutely right. The VB has to speed up otherwise the full potential might not be met. Again, I am hopeful they can catch up there.
 
I agree with you simon, last year Africa got 25000, almost 50% of the visas meanwhile 49% of the selected were from Africa, so same percentage..., if we apply same reasoning for DV2014, we have 46% selected from Africa, so from 50000 (nobody can confirm the NACARA theory) if we take 46%, we will have 23000... (between 22000 and 23000 if we remove AOS), so I don't think that Africa will have not less then 22k this year...:D

Welcome My Friend,
Good reasoning as on the other forum
 
Hi Britsimon,

Thank you for you considered reply ... I understand what you are saying but I think you are trying to read too much into some simple data.

First of all, if we really wanted to analyse the 'quota by Region' split, we should start with the population of the eligible countries in the region and calculate percentages etc! This would be a waste of time as I am sure there are 'adjustments' applied. But fortunately we have a great substitute in just analysing OC and SA.

The population of OC is about 40m (OK 38m but close enough). The population of eligible countries in SA is 100m (bit over but also close enough.) So the ratio of visas should be about 1:2.5. OK

But, if you go to your data above we see:

Selectees by Year
OC SA
2012 2001 2002
2013 2193 2206
(THE BIG JUMP)
2014 4215 4602

In short, the number of selectees for both is (in statistical terms) the same.
In fact it is so closely the same, that it may indicate that the software needs a minimum to work with and both regions - being small - get bumped up to the minimum [But that is a wild off-the-cuff guess that has nothing to back it.]
Now I don't know the actual visa allocations for those years but I will bet that SA received more than OC; indeed, I will go out on a limb and say that OC would never have more than SA!

Hence it is only logical to conclude that (in the case of OC and SA at least) selectees ratios are not indicative of ultimate visa ratios.
SORRY.

Now if you turn to the latest CEAC stuff; it is full of detail. And while not totally accurate (as is normal with most statistical samples), it is pretty good and can certainly show trends - especially when we get to the latest as the data builds. The most recent one (OC800 SA 985) is very relevant as it shows where we are at the half way point in the year.
For example, try these numbers:
Globally, totally visas issued 11294; refusals 756 giving a refusal rate of about 6% [756/(756+11294) neglecting AP]
Globally, 30312 warm bodies are either through the process or on their way at the half way mark; given the refusal rate, such a number of warm bodies should result in about 28,500 visas. Double it gives 57,000 for that year; bit high given AOS/late paperwork - but definitely in the ballpark.

The above (tortured) analysis helps to give confidence in using these figures to answer other questions, such as Region ratios.
That half way mark data shows OC at 1.6% of the total - having trended 1.5% and 1.6% in previous releases (which confirms that data is not fluctuating wildly over the year.)
For SA, the half way mark data shows 2.9% - having trended 2.9% and 2.5%.

Which seems to indicate that OC is 1.5% and SA is 3.0% (giving bureaucrats love of round numbers.) - a ratio between them of 1:2 (again not exactly the 1:2.5 we started with from the population numbers - but not out of the ballpark.)

What do you think?

Regards

Interesting analysis and you are as entitled to it as I am mine. BUT I would have to say yours is totally incorrect. SORRY. ;-)

Firstly, the formulas that calculate visa quotas have NOTHING to do with population and there isn't some mythical minimum for a region as you suggest (check NA region). The DV lottery is governed by visa usage and demand other immigration sources. So for example the UK is ineligible because it constantly breaks the 50k barrier (on visa issuances) but we only have 60 million inhabitants. Compare that to Nigeria for instance with a 170 million population. They are still in and eligible (until next year). So no, the 1:2 ratio and its impact and your theories up to the word SORRY in your post are completely incorrect - of that I am certain.

Now then, is it significant that OC and SA are at 1.5% and 3%? In terms of telegraphing the final allocations or quotas, no that is not at all relevant. I think what it does reiterate is how behind OC is in terms of progress.

That is a very important point - there is nothing that says the progress between the regions has to stay aligned. So, one region could be ahead of another. Some people believe that they will all get to a hard stop per region (the predetermined quota on visa allocations) but I think there might be some fluidity about visa issued quotas and that the quotas are enforced initially by the selectee count (the theory you dissed!). However, this year will be a good (but sad) test of that theory. EU is in the lead at the moment (in terms of progress through the selectee pool), and if that were to stay that way then in theory EU might hit the brick wall first - and we would see a cutoff number that doesn't increase, or perhaps an announcement in the VB.

So about CEAC, yes it is full of detail, and very interesting, but we know it is incomplete, not well updated, not updated uniformly by all embassies and there is a lag for the updates and so on. There are many reasons to not draw too many conclusions from that data. Just to illustrate, the visas issued number globally has jumped by 50% on one month, so we cannot draw conclusions from that, otherwise our conclusions made a month ago would have been destroyed from the data this month.

By the way, the 2013 issuances for OC/SA are 731/938. So yes, SA does get more visas each year, but it is to do with selectee count and relative "desire" to emigrate from your typical SA country versus the desire to leave the big three OC countries, not to do with population. Venezuela is the big country in SA region - and their desire of the last 5 years or so has represented the lions share of the SA visa issuances. If you know anything about the political and economic situation in Venezuela you will understand. So when someone in Venezuela has the chance to emigrate - believe me, they are not pondering what to do in the same way that a winner in Sydney might do...

This link shows visa issuances up to DV2013.
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam...013AnnualReport/FY13AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf

By the way, this video and transcript also describes quite a few interesting facts and procedures, but touches on the "congressionally mandated formula" for how they divide the regions. Well worth a read if you have time.
http://fpc.state.gov/198409.htm

As I said in the beginning, you are entitled to your theories and opinion - so feel free to continue believing what you do and it is good to have the input - so thanks for that.
 
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