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CEAC Data Up to 02-02-2014

Oh cool - this will give us something to devour.... and argue about!!!!

Thanks Rafikbo!

BTW - what did you create the script with?
 
britsimon said:
Oh cool - this will give us something to devour.... and argue about!!!!

Thanks Rafikbo!

BTW - what did you create the script with?
Click to expand...

I don't know if we can call it a script, But it's

Java+Apache HttpClient to handle Http request and response, and finally Jsoup to parse HTML and create DOM
 
OK so a quick glance shows that visas issued in the one month between the first cut if the data (Raevsky around 1/1) and now have jumped by about 50% in each region. That makes perfect sense and shows that progress is not so slow, it is accelerating - there is a lag/catchup time that will move toward the global limit quite quickly each month. So they issued 7300 in the first 3 months of the year and added 4000 in the next month. I think we can anticpate them adding about 5k or 6k per month which would spread the issuances quite well between now and August/September.
 
Just for my understanding: my wife's CN became current in March, we have our appointment scheduled already for the interview, but our status has not been loaded into CEAC so far, however other higher numbers are already marked with status "Ready". Is there anything we have to worry about? :)
 
britsimon said:
OK so a quick glance shows that visas issued in the one month between the first cut if the data (Raevsky around 1/1) and now have jumped by about 50% in each region. That makes perfect sense and shows that progress is not so slow, it is accelerating - there is a lag/catchup time that will move toward the global limit quite quickly each month. So they issued 7300 in the first 3 months of the year and added 4000 in the next month. I think we can anticpate them adding about 5k or 6k per month which would spread the issuances quite well between now and August/September.
Click to expand...

I didnt see this post of yours !
And you are right 4k visas issued in one month its accelerating which means VB will also do the same ...
 
vladek15425 said:
So basicaly after 4 months only 12k visas got issued so far! give us lot of hope infront :)
Click to expand...

What do you think, Vladek, one very simple calculation. Our case number is EU49000. The data from the CEAC - highest case number with visa - EU13190, all the numbers with visas - 4588. So:

13190/49000=4588/x
x=17044

So when mu number is current for Europe will be issued 17044 visas. Absolutely enough for us.
 
hi I read this spreadsheet and thanks for the info. I have a dought. according to this they have issued / attended up to AS 4300 numbers. but In visa bulletin cut off number AS 4300 is up to march 2014.so do I miss something here?
 
denitsa_zz said:
What do you think, Vladek, one very simple calculation. Our case number is EU49000. The data from the CEAC - highest case number with visa - EU13190, all the numbers with visas - 4588. So:

13190/49000=4588/x
x=17044

So when mu number is current for Europe will be issued 17044 visas. Absolutely enough for us.
Click to expand...

That will be nice denitsa! But you know that from next month cuttoffs will accelerate yes but aswell as the visa issuing amout! Now if there is lot of fallouts and give ups may be will reach your cn.
Hopefully that will happen :)
 
baluska said:
Just for my understanding: my wife's CN became current in March, we have our appointment scheduled already for the interview, but our status has not been loaded into CEAC so far, however other higher numbers are already marked with status "Ready". Is there anything we have to worry about? :)
Click to expand...

No, nothing to worry about.

But it does demonstrate the need to be cautious about this data. The 2013 data was missing about 10% of cases - and those cases are still missing today. 2014 data appears to not being updated by some embassies - but even worse, not every case. So there are cases missing from the latest data - for sure - and yours in one such case.
 
vladek15425 said:
I didnt see this post of yours !
And you are right 4k visas issued in one month its accelerating which means VB will also do the same ...
Click to expand...

Actually a lower number of visas issued would force them to increase the case number pace. An acceleration could cause them to pause/limit increases for fear of the train running away from them...
 
denitsa_zz said:
What do you think, Vladek, one very simple calculation. Our case number is EU49000. The data from the CEAC - highest case number with visa - EU13190, all the numbers with visas - 4588. So:

13190/49000=4588/x
x=17044

So when mu number is current for Europe will be issued 17044 visas. Absolutely enough for us.
Click to expand...

The problem with that calculation denitsa is that within that initial 13190 there are lots of ready and AP cases that could very well turn in to visas issued. The number of issuances will grow from the 4588 number - probably as many as 6000 which would mean your 17k number is more like 22k. HOWEVER, there will hopefully be more holes later due to limited countries and some countries may have a cutoff imposed - both of those things working in your favour.
 
Hi Friends,

Ghana is not subject to sepcial CUT-OFF and I can see in the data that there are no ghana cases beyond 22000. Any Comments/explanation?
 
rafikbo76 said:
Hi Friends,

Ghana is not subject to sepcial CUT-OFF and I can see in the data that there are no ghana cases beyond 22000. Any Comments/explanation?
Click to expand...

Ghana IS artificially limited during selection (but only has 3945 selectees)

Take a look at this link - showing entrants per year. Ghana looks very odd because it has a massive number of entrants but if you look you will see the ratio of principal entrants to derivatives is VERY unusual. about 8:1 instead of a more normal 8:7. So, as they are doing the selection a normal country would get to around 3500 pricipal entries and that would naturally mean around 6000 selectees (which is what you see in Iran/Nigeria/Nepal and so on). However, in Ghana 3500 principal selectees only has around 400 derivatives. This is specific to Ghana.

I asked the question about that in the Ghana forum and was told a couple of good explanations as to why that might happen - I'll find the post. But, the answer to your question is that Ghana IS limited (unlimited would it would have received 20k selectees).
 
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