• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

CEAC Data Up to 02-02-2014

britsimon said:
Ghana IS artificially limited during selection (but only has 3945 selectees)

Take a look at this link - showing entrants per year. Ghana looks very odd because it has a massive number of entrants but if you look you will see the ratio of principal entrants to derivatives is VERY unusual. about 8:1 instead of a more normal 8:7. So, as they are doing the selection a normal country would get to around 3500 pricipal entries and that would naturally mean around 6000 selectees (which is what you see in Iran/Nigeria/Nepal and so on). However, in Ghana 3500 principal selectees only has around 400 derivatives. This is specific to Ghana.

I asked the question about that in the Ghana forum and was told a couple of good explanations as to why that might happen - I'll find the post. But, the answer to your question is that Ghana IS limited (unlimited would it would have received 20k selectees).
Click to expand...

So the limit on selection depends from country to another
 
On google doc. there are entries with the 2013 date.
Does that mean these entries sent their document but didnt attend interview ?
How should we understand ready status with past dates?
 
rafikbo76 said:
So the limit on selection depends from country to another
Click to expand...

No. I believe all countries are limited around the same number - probably around 3500 entries. However, 3500 entries means a different resulting number in each country - typicaly around 6000 selectees. BUT Ghana is special because of the very unusually low ratio of derivatives.
 
rafikbo76 said:
DV-2014 is FROM OCT 2013 TO SEP 2014
Click to expand...

I see that.
But what does ready status mean when date is an old date?
When someone's status is ready then that means an interview is scheduled for that case number, right?
As far as I know after interview status changes if interview took place.
So I am guessing these case number with the ready status and old scheduled interview date did not attend the interview.
Am I right?
 
Istanbuler said:
On google doc. there are entries with the 2013 date.
Does that mean these entries sent their document but didnt attend interview ?
How should we understand ready status with past dates?
Click to expand...

Yes, there are many entries where the interview date will have passed and the case still says ready. Those are cases where someone has submtted the 122/230 forms but did not show up for their interview (change of mind, realised they were not qualified and so on).

Some of those ready status cases will actually take place - but some will remain abandoned.
 
britsimon said:
Yes, there are many entries where the interview date will have passed and the case still says ready. Those are cases where someone has submtted the 122/230 forms but did not show up for their interview (change of mind, realised they were not qualified and so on).

Some of those ready status cases will actually take place - but some will remain abandoned.
Click to expand...

I think that is a great news for high case numbers.
According to 2013 stats. most of these ready status will remain ready
What do you think Simon?
 
britsimon said:
Yes, there are many entries where the interview date will have passed and the case still says ready. Those are cases where someone has submtted the 122/230 forms but did not show up for their interview (change of mind, realised they were not qualified and so on).

Some of those ready status cases will actually take place - but some will remain abandoned.
Click to expand...

Some of those will be postponed interviews too, although I imagine these are in the minority - especially as some consulates do not generally allow postponements.

Bear in mind that these people have not lost their chance to apply for a visa - I have seen cases where people missed their appointments, for example did not receive the email to check their case status page and didn't realise the appointment letter was there till much later - but were able to have interviews at a later date. And because they were current already interviews got scheduled relatively quickly once they had contacted KCC.
 
2014 2/2/2014
REGION Max CN Total CN Including Family ISSUED REFUSED AP READY+TRANS
AF 24992 6785 12733 4541 756 895 6541
AS 4324 2391 4713 1699 91 1051 1872
EU 20040 5105 11498 4588 309 1065 5536
OC 798 277 485 138 39 38 270
SA 983 349 883 328 82 67 406
NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
totals 51137 14907 30312 11294 1277 3116 14625

this board is not right! because its including march and feb cutoffs, it should show just up to 02/02/2014.
because this way we can conclude that 30312 (incl family) produced 11294 visas. but its actually not !
 
vladek15425 said:
2014 2/2/2014
REGION Max CN Total CN Including Family ISSUED REFUSED AP READY+TRANS
AF 24992 6785 12733 4541 756 895 6541
AS 4324 2391 4713 1699 91 1051 1872
EU 20040 5105 11498 4588 309 1065 5536
OC 798 277 485 138 39 38 270
SA 983 349 883 328 82 67 406
NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
totals 51137 14907 30312 11294 1277 3116 14625

this board is not right! because its including march and feb cutoffs, it should show just up to 02/02/2014.
because this way we can conclude that 30312 (incl family) produced 11294 visas. but its actually not !
Click to expand...

There is anothr board in the comparaison tab. Just like raevsky did, up to january cut-off AFRICA 27150.
The one you showed is just totals and of course it include feb and march
 
Rafiko:
Is it possible for you to do a new sheet exluding february? From oct to jan?
So that we can be able to visualize the real amount of winner out of those that went through the process?
Thanks
 
vladek15425 said:
Rafiko:
Is it possible for you to do a new sheet exluding february? From oct to jan?
So that we can be able to visualize the real amount of winner out of those that went through the process?
Thanks
Click to expand...

You just need to eliminate cases beyond january vb cut-off,
I can publish a new sheet, but what is the purpose?
 
Hi All

One thing that has been perplexing me is how KCC allocate visa percentages between regions - OK especially OC!
And what is the actual percentage.

I think these numbers are telling us the answer to the second query for this year.
If you go to the summary data provided by Rafibo76 and calculate the percentage of visas from his three data sheets for 2004 by 'including family' - which is logical; the percentage of OC comes out as 1.60%, 1.48% and 1.56% - which looks pretty damn close to 1.5%!

The reference data he has given for 2013 gives a percentage of 1.26%; which is obviously lower than 1.5%.

Don't know if that is what people expect - but that seems to be what the data is saying.
 
Egyptian winner 714 to the date 2-2-2014. That may mean each 1000 CN contain 39 Egyptian winner. And if US embassy in cairo meet about 100 winner every month That may tell us the next Visa Bulletin may be 21300 or a little bit higher AM I Right????
Cairo =CRO
 
vladek15425 said:
2014 2/2/2014
REGION Max CN Total CN Including Family ISSUED REFUSED AP READY+TRANS
AF 24992 6785 12733 4541 756 895 6541
AS 4324 2391 4713 1699 91 1051 1872
EU 20040 5105 11498 4588 309 1065 5536
OC 798 277 485 138 39 38 270
SA 983 349 883 328 82 67 406
NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
totals 51137 14907 30312 11294 1277 3116 14625

this board is not right! because its including march and feb cutoffs, it should show just up to 02/02/2014.
because this way we can conclude that 30312 (incl family) produced 11294 visas. but its actually not !
Click to expand...

According to the above data, the quotas are pretty much the same as with the previous spread sheet by Raevsky.
AFRICA - 40.20718966%
EUROPE - 40.62333983%
ASIA - 15.04338587%
SA - 2.904196919%
OC - 1.221887728%
NA-0%

Dear Simon and Vladek, can't you receive that this year the quotas may be much different than last year?
Your comments, please?
 
CollingwoodRuck said:
Hi All

One thing that has been perplexing me is how KCC allocate visa percentages between regions - OK especially OC!
And what is the actual percentage.

I think these numbers are telling us the answer to the second query for this year.
If you go to the summary data provided by Rafibo76 and calculate the percentage of visas from his three data sheets for 2004 by 'including family' - which is logical; the percentage of OC comes out as 1.60%, 1.48% and 1.56% - which looks pretty damn close to 1.5%!

The reference data he has given for 2013 gives a percentage of 1.26%; which is obviously lower than 1.5%.

Don't know if that is what people expect - but that seems to be what the data is saying.
Click to expand...

You can't be sure of the original allocation when you are looking at a partially filled quota - neither the region quota nor the global limit was hit.

I actually think the quota is either signalled by or entirely enforced by the selectee quotas.

What I think happens is the global number of selectees is decided based on a formula to do with the selectee/visa issued rate from the last complete year. DV2012 was 30% underfilled so they increased the selectees this year by 30%. (Big mistake).

OK so next step is to allocate the selectees to the regions. There is a formula that decides the quotas for the region. Again, 2012 is the biggest clue about that. 2012 was a year where they used new software so the quota, I believe, was very clear obvious (round numbers).

2012 selectees (first draw and ignoring NA)
AF 50000
EU 31001
AS 15002
OC 2001
SA 2002
Total 100006

So - EXACT percentages applied to each region, and OC getting 2% of the selectees.

OK so how does 2013 look?

AF 52080
EU 33088
AS 16045
OC 2193
SA 2206
Total 105612

The percentages are:-
49.31
31.33
15.19
2.08
2.09

So OC saw again a 2% allocation. Interestingly, AF region was down by 0.7% and EU and AS region received slight increases. That trend can be seen to continue in 2014:-

61942
46589
23270
4215
4620
140636

Which are the following percentages:-

44.04
33.13
16.55
3.00
3.29

Note that OC has had a 50% increase to 3% but because that was a larger percentage of a larger pot, OC has had a dramatic increase in numbers of selectees (doubled).

The selectee splits also reveal something else quite dramatic. Look at the decrease in AF region - very big drop - and that drop has been shared out to the other 4 regions - 2% for EU, 1% for AS, 1% for OC and 1.3% for SA.

I think this is a big clue to how the qlobal split will be - although I do also believe that regions can benefit through faster processing through its (oversubscribed) pool of selectees. For that to be true it means there would not be a regional cutoff - but I have never seen anything to convince me that a regional cutoff exists - only a regional allocation - which as I have just explained might only be implemented through the selectee split.

Oh by the way, the sudden drop in AF region I think can be explained by the timing of when the quota formula is applied. Nigeria is out for DV2015 because of the amount of immigration through other methods (family and work based). I think the same thing that triggered that knock out was taken in to account in the quota formula for this year even though the rule wasn't applied in time to kncok out Nigeria in DV2014.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top