Not sure if this posting believe to this thread but you guys are excellent data crunchers and analyst can give light on this issue.
So far 67% of the case have been processed and only a 33% of those got certified. That means only 71,000 are certified as of Jan 27/ 2007
Total LC = 321,000 (159,000 DBEC + 162,000 PBEC)
Processed = 321,000 * 67% = 215,070
Certified = 215,070 * 33% = 71,000
Visa Numbers needed for the Certified cases = 71,000 * 4 = 284,000 (Assuming 4 person per family: Principal applicant, spouse and two kids which is way very conservative). Please be aware that some of those certified LC goes to the same applicant and that reduce the visa numbers needed but we can not quantify that. In my case I have two.
But those certified cases have different priority date (from 2001 to 2005). So if we distribuite evenly the cases into the years (Very conservative because there should be more cases for recent years) we can conclude they need to allocate (284,000 / 5 years) = 56,800 visa numbers per year.
There is a total of 140K /year visa numbers for EB categories but not all of them need LC. Let’s assume 40K don’t need LC (Very conservative, because only L1 Executive Managers, National waiver petition and the like don’t need LC. I don’t know about nurses today but some month ago they used to have their on quota). So there should be 140K – 40K (Don’t need LC) = 100K avalaible each year for petition that requires LC.
Retrogression started on Jan 2005 but according to these calculation there should not be any retrogression because the annual qouta is enough to satisfy the demand(56.8K visas for LC petition < 100K visa number for LC petition / year ).
It would be very nice if we can get a breakdown of the Certified LCs by priority date but I think most of them ar from 2003 on.
I will appreciate if you can add to the previous analisys.
The goods news is that cut-off dates should be moving very fast very soon!!!
