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August visa bulletin the final.

Britsimon said:
No. If EU has been raised (or actually just gets more) it would come mainly from AF and AS region. I do not believe OC is being held to a lower/reduced quota. I just think it hasn't been increased as much as I expected. Also don't forget the CEAC data only covers 8 months completed interviews. So the number will increase by a couple of hundred with what is now in the system. Then there is the reality tat OC will have a relatively large aos population, so that might add another 100 tat we are not seeing in CEAC. And then there is whatever they do in September. So we could easily see 800 visas for OC - which would beat last year, just not in the way that I expected.
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Will you please clarify more about getting visas from AF and AS to EU.
 
Britsimon said:
Bet you're glad you didn't buy the 1 series though....
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Was quite desperate at times (crappy bulletins) and just wanted to go for it. I am happy that KCC still has hots for EU as we kinda predicted last year.
 
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raevsky said:
DOS Alert: Overall Movement of Cut-off Dates for Diversity Visas (FY2014)

AILA Liaison practice alert informs members that many more applicants registered for DV-2014 are pursuing their cases for visa issuance than in years past. This increased response is resulting in greater visa number use by those with lower rank numbers and slower forward movement of the cut-offs.
AILA Doc. No. 14060241.
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So what is your interpretation on this raevsky ?
Do you think that august cut-off will stop right where there are now ?
 
EURO2014 said:
I personally can't see that this (cancelling confirmed visa interviews) may be the case: my understanding of the process was, and currently still is, that visa numbers are being assigned at the time the appointments are being set, i.e.at around 06/15 for the month of August, meaning that they are being deducted from the regional quota and assigned to specific CN cases at that time. If this understanding of the process is correct, there won't be a need to "cancel all further interviews" which previously have been confirmed in the 2nd NL letter. Can someone from the group with additional understanding & deeper knowledge please comment & clarify? Thank you, very much appreciated!
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they will be cancelled in the same way as they happened to be cancelled in the past. Visa numbers are not allocated when the interview is scheduled, they are allocated later, closer to the date of interview
 
vladek15425 said:
So what is your interpretation on this raevsky ?
Do you think that august cut-off will stop right where there are now ?
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For August DV-14 compared to DV-13
AF 69300 is lower than 81200
AS 12700 islower than Current
EU 40125 is lower than Current
OC 1450 is lower than 1600
SA 1550 is lower than Current

Same thing for some country cut-offs. Several problems though, like for NA Current is higher than 3.

That is just a clumsy way to say that there are too many applications hiding the fact that that is due to issuing to many winners
 
raevsky said:
For August DV-14 compared to DV-13
AF 69300 is lower than 81200
AS 12700 islower than Current
EU 40125 is lower than Current
OC 1450 is lower than 1600
SA 1550 is lower than Current

Same thing for some country cut-offs. Several problems though, like for NA Current is higher than 3.

That is just a clumsy way to say that there are too many applications hiding the fact that that is due to issuing to many winners
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So basically they just trying to justify the slow VB pace !
Nothing serious !
Feeeewwwww
 
My wife has between 1700 and 1750 for SA. Will she be current in the next bulletin? Any views much apprecated on SA. I believe the SA wil be current for everyone.
 
Actually apart from the number of selectees I wouldn't be at all surprised if the response is really higher than the previous few years, as the US economy recovers. I think it's a combination of both those factors but again sad news for those with high numbers.
 
SusieQQQ said:
Actually apart from the number of selectees I wouldn't be at all surprised if the response is really higher than the previous few years, as the US economy recovers. I think it's a combination of both those factors but again sad news for those with high numbers.
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I think you are right. As I read the VBs there has been a run on most visa categories, which has resulted in retrogression. I don't think we have seen retrogression in DV, but it may still happen.
 
Britsimon said:
A lot of EU people went current yesterday that once upon a time were thought to have no shot. I do not agree with Raevsky that they will cancel these. I think with a whole month left to run, they must be pretty confident that these selectees can get visas. According to my estimates that means (even with no increase in September) that EU is taking at least 18k visas, perhaps even 19k. That is why Raevsky is talking about cancellations - it is far higher than the quota given last year.

To me that suggests these things might be going on...

1. That they expect to exceed by some margin the 51k from last year. That probably would mean that NACARA is already on the table.
2. That EU quota has been increased for some unknown reason.
3. That the concept of regional cutoffs does not exist. I have never been 100% convinced they do. I have said before they may simply let one region (like we are seeing with EU) go fast because of processing simplicity - and other regions get where they get. The quota that is described by law might therefore only be applied to selectee distribution ( which is clear from the rounded numbers of selectees we see in some years like 2012 and 2015).
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Simon you think AF 81000 will be current in Sep?
 
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