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August visa bulletin the final.

Chicago2014 said:
Vlady, eucn, franks and istambuler where are you?????
You disappeared!!!!!
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I'm kinda here :) Currently working in the US this week and with all that happened and time difference I have no idea what is going down :) Just happy for few of us high EU CNs to have a chance for an interview. And of course my man Grand Master Vlad is current too so I am extremely happy. I hope that some of our AU and SA peeps will get a chance too !!!!
 
franko said:
I'm kinda here :) Currently working in the US this week and with all that happened and time difference I have no idea what is going down :) Just happy for few of us high EU CNs to have a chance for an interview. And of course my man Grand Master Vlad is current too so I am extremely happy. I hope that some of our AU and SA peeps will get a chance too !!!!
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Franky my bro I'm truly happy for you :)
At least I blew some of reavsky's german tanks in EU region :p
 
vladek15425 said:
Franky my bro I'm truly happy for you :)
At least I blew some of reavsky's german tanks in EU region :p
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Considering my country's history and a pretty "rocky" relations with Germany I am always happy to see some German tanks going down in flames :) I cannot say the same about their cars as I love my A3 :D
 
A lot of EU people went current yesterday that once upon a time were thought to have no shot. I do not agree with Raevsky that they will cancel these. I think with a whole month left to run, they must be pretty confident that these selectees can get visas. According to my estimates that means (even with no increase in September) that EU is taking at least 18k visas, perhaps even 19k. That is why Raevsky is talking about cancellations - it is far higher than the quota given last year.

To me that suggests these things might be going on...

1. That they expect to exceed by some margin the 51k from last year. That probably would mean that NACARA is already on the table.
2. That EU quota has been increased for some unknown reason.
3. That the concept of regional cutoffs does not exist. I have never been 100% convinced they do. I have said before they may simply let one region (like we are seeing with EU) go fast because of processing simplicity - and other regions get where they get. The quota that is described by law might therefore only be applied to selectee distribution ( which is clear from the rounded numbers of selectees we see in some years like 2012 and 2015).
 
franko said:
Considering my country's history and a pretty "rocky" relations with Germany I am always happy to see some German tanks going down in flames :) I cannot say the same about their cars as I love my A3 :D
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Bet you're glad you didn't buy the 1 series though....
 
Britsimon said:
A lot of EU people went current yesterday that once upon a time were thought to have no shot. I do not agree with Raevsky that they will cancel these. I think with a whole month left to run, they must be pretty confident that these selectees can get visas. According to my estimates that means (even with no increase in September) that EU is taking at least 18k visas, perhaps even 19k. That is why Raevsky is talking about cancellations - it is far higher than the quota given last year.

To me that suggests these things might be going on...

1. That they expect to exceed by some margin the 51k from last year. That probably would mean that NACARA is already on the table.
2. That EU quota has been increased for some unknown reason.
3. That the concept of regional cutoffs does not exist. I have never been 100% convinced they do. I have said before they may simply let one region (like we are seeing with EU) go fast because of processing simplicity - and other regions get where they get. The quota that is described by law might therefore only be applied to selectee distribution ( which is clear from the rounded numbers of selectees we see in some years like 2012 and 2015).
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Thank you, Britsimon, for your contribution and input, much appreciated. Euro2014
 
Britsimon said:
A lot of EU people went current yesterday that once upon a time were thought to have no shot.
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Simon - what's your feeling now on OC? Do you think the EU quota has been raised by stealing OC visas (hence the abysmal increases here) ?
 
Britsimon said:
I Had seen the two numbers 12700 and 9500 on the Nepal FB age. So I called and got the other numbers and about AS I gave her the numbers I had seen and the girl said yes that is correct. She was young, and I was more interested in the other regions so it is possible the 9500 is a mistake. We will get confirmation tomorrow. The 9500 limit seems logical to explain how they jumped well for the rest of Asia. Also understand this is a limit for this month. Nepal could rise again next month.
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can u give me the link to nepal facebook page
 
MattWatt said:
Simon - what's your feeling now on OC? Do you think the EU quota has been raised by stealing OC visas (hence the abysmal increases here) ?
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No. If EU has been raised (or actually just gets more) it would come mainly from AF and AS region. I do not believe OC is being held to a lower/reduced quota. I just think it hasn't been increased as much as I expected. Also don't forget the CEAC data only covers 8 months completed interviews. So the number will increase by a couple of hundred with what is now in the system. Then there is the reality tat OC will have a relatively large aos population, so that might add another 100 tat we are not seeing in CEAC. And then there is whatever they do in September. So we could easily see 800 visas for OC - which would beat last year, just not in the way that I expected.
 
Britsimon said:
A lot of EU people went current yesterday that once upon a time were thought to have no shot. I do not agree with Raevsky that they will cancel these. I think with a whole month left to run, they must be pretty confident that these selectees can get visas. According to my estimates that means (even with no increase in September) that EU is taking at least 18k visas, perhaps even 19k. That is why Raevsky is talking about cancellations - it is far higher than the quota given last year.

To me that suggests these things might be going on...

1. That they expect to exceed by some margin the 51k from last year. That probably would mean that NACARA is already on the table.
2. That EU quota has been increased for some unknown reason.
3. That the concept of regional cutoffs does not exist. I have never been 100% convinced they do. I have said before they may simply let one region (like we are seeing with EU) go fast because of processing simplicity - and other regions get where they get. The quota that is described by law might therefore only be applied to selectee distribution ( which is clear from the rounded numbers of selectees we see in some years like 2012 and 2015).
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Interesting analysis. Do you think there is a strong possibility that Europe stays at 40150 in September as well?
I am at 408xx and the closer the number comes to my cn, without being current, makes me sick:confused:

A very dissapointing September has only happened 3 times in the past for the 3 big regions: in 2000 (EU +30), 2004 (AF +150) and 2005 (EU+100).
It's rare, but not that it'll be the first time
 
vladek15425 said:
Ok go to the dv related usefull link thread.
And you will find it there!
Btw I'm there too :)
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actually when i open that link the page says unavailable.looks like i cant open that page.the oceana and romania page are opening but nepalese fp page isn't opening
 
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