2014 DV Australian winners

[TonyJP]

It aids me in resigning to the fact that more than likely I have stuff all chance of getting a green card in this DV Disappointing, but such is life. Will wait and see how it plays out, but I cannot see any plausible way the cutoff will get to 2800.

Ah well - got the application in for DV2015, but as we all know even getting a CN to begin with is extremely luck. Will keep pursuing other avenues such as E3.

Like you, Neko, I've entered 2015, but it took me nine years of trying to win in 2014, so I'll be pretty disappointed if my 2014 number doesn't go current. What I still don't understand is, even if the Oceania visa allocation hasn't increased, and even if they drew so many extra selectees because of flawed assumptions based on the botched 2012 lottery, why is Oceania still progressing slower than it has in recent years? What's most annoying, though, is the lack of information we get from KCC about the process. It wouldn't kill them to add a sentence or two to the monthly bulletin explaining why things are where they are and where they're likely to end up.

 

[neko83]

Yep, know the feeling - DV2014 was my 11th year applying. I still remember the excitement I had when I logged in on the 1st May (at about 5am) and saw the "You have been randomly selected..." message. Instantly realised the CN was high, didn't realise how bad it was though. I just assumed OC always wen't current and I would be up in September. It's gut wrenching when the realisation that you probably won't get that 2NL finally sets in.

Yes some more information would be nice, but its their process and it is what it is. I just try to not focus on it too much and continue on with life.

 

[Britsimon]

Britsimon mentioned above that one of the gaps in our current knowledge is that although we know there are 4215 selectees for Oceania, we don't know how many case numbers there are, how high they go, and how many holes there are between the numbers.

I've had a quick search through the 34 pages of this thread. Obviously, not every Oceania winner participates in this thread, but the random case number samples of we who do use this thread should give us a rough idea as to how high the case numbers go and where they fall.

I haven't been able to find anyone in the 3000s or 4000s (though I swear I once saw someone somewhere on this forum in the low 3000s), but here are all the winners I found with case numbers over 2000 ...

ad100 2XXX
Smeggs30 2XXX
Badabingbada 2XXX

IHeartNY 20XX
Mijoro 20XX

TonyJP 22XX

Katemaccullen 23XX
Emma_ 23XX

CollingwoodRuck26XX

Neko83 28XX
bkpmc 28XX
MrSkgriter 28XX

Lepeka 29XX
BrisGuy 29XX
Essey 29XX

Not sure if the above will aid anyone's analysis, but it's still bound to be more useful than today's latest crappy monthly cut-off announcement.

That is VERY useful - thanks Tony - I didn't have time to do that (moving in 2 weeks).

So - ok - you have enough proof there of numbers up to 29XX to assume the number is 3000. It might be higher, but call it 3k.

There are no wacky countries in OC region - wacky meaning HUGE number of entries that get artificially cutoff during selection such as Nepal, Iran, Nigeria and so on. That means the case numbers are probably evenly distributed within the 3000 case numbers. Remember, there are 4215 selectees, but that includes dependents and the real number of principal applicants is less than the 4215. OC tends to have a low number of derivatives, so the principal selectees is probably something around 3000 (which obviously would need at least 3000 CNs - so that backs up the liklihood that the max CN is actually higher than 3k).

Ok, I have explained in this thread previously why I believe the quota for OC has been increased. We also pretty much know that the global limit will go higher than the 51k figure reached last year - probably up to around 54k). So, I have speculated that OC might see as many as 1400 visas issued this year (2013 was 731 from a max case number of around something around 1700). The number last year represented an underfilling AND that is before you take a view about the quota allocation. OK, perhaps you don't believe in the 1400 number, but 950/1000 seems like a no brainer. So, it is not unreasonable to assume that the safe case numbers are those under 2000/2200. I remain hopeful that we can see a number higher than that - but it will be a nervous wait...

Now, KCC don't seem to be getting the message. OC VB progress is not good enough, and the ladies at KCC have got edgier these days. They must be coming under pressure from people saying "what the hell is going on". It is not their job to process all the numbers and make everyone happy. BUT it IS their job to make best efforts to get as many visas allocated as possible up to the limits set down for the program. So during the 5 remaining months after this latest VB I STRONGLY believe we will see an increase in pace. They can blame the shutdown a bit, but otherwise they would have to explain why they left so many people hanging, AND failed to reach the targets.

So - I am not trying to blow wind up anyone's arse - but to the people on the 2k+ list above I think some of you will get your interview. I am sure this year will have a lot of unhappy people in various countries - but I hope you can understand why I would say don't give up hope yet...

 

[TonyJP]

Yep, know the feeling - DV2014 was my 11th year applying. I still remember the excitement I had when I logged in on the 1st May (at about 5am) and saw the "You have been randomly selected..." message. Instantly realised the CN was high, didn't realise how bad it was though. I just assumed OC always wen't current and I would be up in September. It's gut wrenching when the realisation that you probably won't get that 2NL finally sets in.

Yes some more information would be nice, but its their process and it is what it is. I just try to not focus on it too much and continue on with life.

Wow, Neko -- I never knew anyone who's applied for the lottery more years than I have! It's impressive and a little sad at the same time. More than most, you deserve to get an interview now that you've been selected, so for your sake as well as mine, I'll be hoping they reach your 28XX case number. If you don't mind my asking, why are you so determined to go to the US that you'd apply 11 years straight, 12 if you count 2015? My excuse is that I work in entertainment and my dream has always been to do it in Hollywood.

 

[TonyJP]

That is VERY useful - thanks Tony - I didn't have time to do that (moving in 2 weeks).

So - ok - you have enough proof there of numbers up to 29XX to assume the number is 3000. It might be higher, but call it 3k.

There are no wacky countries in OC region - wacky meaning HUGE number of entries that get artificially cutoff during selection such as Nepal, Iran, Nigeria and so on. That means the case numbers are probably evenly distributed within the 3000 case numbers. Remember, there are 4215 selectees, but that includes dependents and the real number of principal applicants is less than the 4215. OC tends to have a low number of derivatives, so the principal selectees is probably something around 3000 (which obviously would need at least 3000 CNs - so that backs up the liklihood that the max CN is actually higher than 3k).

Ok, I have explained in this thread previously why I believe the quota for OC has been increased. We also pretty much know that the global limit will go higher than the 51k figure reached last year - probably up to around 54k). So, I have speculated that OC might see as many as 1400 visas issued this year (2013 was 731 from a max case number of around something around 1700). The number last year represented an underfilling AND that is before you take a view about the quota allocation. OK, perhaps you don't believe in the 1400 number, but 950/1000 seems like a no brainer. So, it is not unreasonable to assume that the safe case numbers are those under 2000/2200. I remain hopeful that we can see a number higher than that - but it will be a nervous wait...

Now, KCC don't seem to be getting the message. OC VB progress is not good enough, and the ladies at KCC have got edgier these days. They must be coming under pressure from people saying "what the hell is going on". It is not their job to process all the numbers and make everyone happy. BUT it IS their job to make best efforts to get as many visas allocated as possible up to the limits set down for the program. So during the 5 remaining months after this latest VB I STRONGLY believe we will see an increase in pace. They can blame the shutdown a bit, but otherwise they would have to explain why they left so many people hanging, AND failed to reach the targets.

So - I am not trying to blow wind up anyone's arse - but to the people on the 2k+ list above I think some of you will get your interview. I am sure this year will have a lot of unhappy people in various countries - but I hope you can understand why I would say don't give up hope yet...

Thanks for your considered analysis as always, Britsimon, though with each passing month it's harder for those of us with higher case numbers to stay hopeful. If we don't talk before, best of luck for your move in a couple of weeks. Hopefully, your AOS Green Card won't be long after.

 

[neko83]

Wow, Neko -- I never knew anyone who's applied for the lottery more years than I have! It's impressive and a little sad at the same time. More than most, you deserve to get an interview now that you've been selected, so for your sake as well as mine, I'll be hoping they reach your 28XX case number. If you don't mind my asking, why are you so determined to go to the US that you'd apply 11 years straight, 12 if you count 2015? My excuse is that I work in entertainment and my dream has always been to do it in Hollywood.

As strange as it may sound, I have always just found the US a better fit for myself on a personal level. I don't have any tie downs in Australia, very minimal family, my profession was born in the US and it is a lot more dynamic, progressive and cutting edge in the US so naturally I would rather work there.

I have a lot of friends in the US and am fortunate enough to get over there regularly, e.g. was there for a good portion of January and will be back there in March and April. I just find myself "happier" in the US oh and the climate, I love cold weather and am dying a slow death in this disgusting heat here!

 

[TonyJP]

As strange as it may sound, I have always just found the US a better fit for myself on a personal level. I don't have any tie downs in Australia, very minimal family, my profession was born in the US and it is a lot more dynamic, progressive and cutting edge in the US so naturally I would rather work there.

I have a lot of friends in the US and am fortunate enough to get over there regularly, e.g. was there for a good portion of January and will be back there in March and April. I just find myself "happier" in the US oh and the climate, I love cold weather and am dying a slow death in this disgusting heat here!

Sounds like you know where you're meant to be, Neko. Hope you're able to move there long-term in the short-term.

 

[Britsimon]

Thanks for your considered analysis as always, Britsimon, though with each passing month it's harder for those of us with higher case numbers to stay hopeful. If we don't talk before, best of luck for your move in a couple of weeks. Hopefully, your AOS Green Card won't be long after.

I hear you. Thanks for the luck!

 

[neko83]

Sounds like you know where you're meant to be, Neko. Hope you're able to move there long-term in the short-term.

Thanks Tony, and best of luck to you too. Hopefully were both reflecting back on this in September and realise we were worried about nothing

 

[tonis]

That sounds very positive - I'm really pleased to hear it. PLease keep us updated and once you have the visa - let us know what pieces of evidence swayed the case.

Fingers crossed they see it our way, but will let you know either way.

 

[Crawf33]

Ah well - got the application in for DV2015, but as we all know even getting a CN to begin with is extremely luck. Will keep pursuing other avenues such as E3.

I personally think this is the absolute right attitude. As Australians we have at least one other extremely good option for immigration to the US. I think it's very easy for people to get so swept up in the one-in-thousands selection that they forget that there are absolutely no guarantees. No one is promised anything.

If immigrating to the US is absolutely what you want to do, then you'll find an avenue through which to do it. But I can't help but feel that if many hadn't made it through to the selectee stage, they wouldn't have been all that fazed and life would go on.

My two cents anyway.

 

[TonyJP]

In another thread, AU.Dan posted this article from the New York Times about a delay in processing certain Green Card visas ...
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/09/us...ml?hpw&rref=us

Although the article is about a different Green Card category, not the DV category, and although it references a Kansas office, not a Kentucky one, perhaps it helps explain why the case numbers in the DV category are progressing slower than usual this year. Britsimon and others, what do you think?

Here are the most interesting excerpts from the article ...

"Many thousands of Americans seeking green cards for foreign spouses or other immediate relatives have been separated from them for a year or more because of swelling bureaucratic delays at a federal immigration agency in recent months.

The long waits came when the agency, Citizenship and Immigration Services, shifted attention and resources to a program President Obama started in 2012 to give deportation deferrals to young undocumented immigrants, according to administration officials and official data.

Until recently, an American could obtain a green card for a spouse, child or parent — probably the easiest document in the immigration system — in five months or less. But over the past year, waits for approvals of those resident visas stretched to 15 months, and more than 500,000 applications became stuck in the pipeline, playing havoc with international moves and children’s schools and keeping families apart.

Christopher S. Bentley, a Citizenship and Immigration Services spokesman, said the agency had seen “a temporary increase in processing times” for the citizens’ green card applications because of the deferrals program and “the standard ebb and flow” of visas.

Last year, officials said, the agency detected the problem and tried to speed up the green cards by spreading them out to three processing centers. In November, the agency reported it had reduced waits to 10 months, calling that a “significant step forward.” Officials said they hoped to reduce waits to five months, but not before this summer.

An immigration service center near Kansas City assigned to handle both the green card applications and many of the deferrals was rapidly overwhelmed, officials said. But although the agency is financed by fees and does not depend on congressional appropriations, no new employees were brought on at that center, because of “unanticipated hiring difficulties,” officials said, without elaborating."

 

[SusieQQQ]

In another thread, AU.Dan posted this article from the New York Times about a delay in processing certain Green Card visas ...
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/09/us...ml?hpw&rref=us

Although the article is about a different Green Card category, not the DV category, and although it references a Kansas office, not a Kentucky one, perhaps it helps explain why the case numbers in the DV category are progressing slower than usual this year. Britsimon and others, what do you think?

Here are the most interesting excerpts from the article ...

"Many thousands of Americans seeking green cards for foreign spouses or other immediate relatives have been separated from them for a year or more because of swelling bureaucratic delays at a federal immigration agency in recent months.

The long waits came when the agency, Citizenship and Immigration Services, shifted attention and resources to a program President Obama started in 2012 to give deportation deferrals to young undocumented immigrants, according to administration officials and official data.

Until recently, an American could obtain a green card for a spouse, child or parent — probably the easiest document in the immigration system — in five months or less. But over the past year, waits for approvals of those resident visas stretched to 15 months, and more than 500,000 applications became stuck in the pipeline, playing havoc with international moves and children’s schools and keeping families apart.

Christopher S. Bentley, a Citizenship and Immigration Services spokesman, said the agency had seen “a temporary increase in processing times” for the citizens’ green card applications because of the deferrals program and “the standard ebb and flow” of visas.

Last year, officials said, the agency detected the problem and tried to speed up the green cards by spreading them out to three processing centers. In November, the agency reported it had reduced waits to 10 months, calling that a “significant step forward.” Officials said they hoped to reduce waits to five months, but not before this summer.

An immigration service center near Kansas City assigned to handle both the green card applications and many of the deferrals was rapidly overwhelmed, officials said. But although the agency is financed by fees and does not depend on congressional appropriations, no new employees were brought on at that center, because of “unanticipated hiring difficulties,” officials said, without elaborating."

I don't think this affects DV at all. The backlog seems to be in the processing of I130s which is done at different service centers than KCC

 

[DWS15]

Looking at the visa Bulletin, other regions have had significant increases for April, they are about an increase of 1/4 of what they were previously. (Asia from 4325 to 5350) Where as Oc has increased by 1/8 (800 to 900). So if other regions are progressing and we aren't, we can't blame it on a back log or slow processing. Something is up, and at this rate the cut off could be as low as 1400- 1500.

 

[pose]

I think they're just behind a schedule a bit this year.

I sent in my forms at the end of May 2013, and I called every two weeks to confirm they had been received. It wasn't until August (10 weeks later) that they confirmed receiving my application forms. They told me at the time that they were a couple of months behind schedule this time around so everything would be slightly delayed.

Hey @Kurt14 I also waited for almost 6 months as well before getting confirmation that they received my forms. But my thought was, what of someone who had a higher case number ie. those first people to go for their interviews, it seemed their confirmations were slightly more prioritized but that is just my thought.

 

[pose]

Like you, Neko, I've entered 2015, but it took me nine years of trying to win in 2014, so I'll be pretty disappointed if my 2014 number doesn't go current. What I still don't understand is, even if the Oceania visa allocation hasn't increased, and even if they drew so many extra selectees because of flawed assumptions based on the botched 2012 lottery, why is Oceania still progressing slower than it has in recent years? What's most annoying, though, is the lack of information we get from KCC about the process. It wouldn't kill them to add a sentence or two to the monthly bulletin explaining why things are where they are and where they're likely to end up.

Tony JP what was the cut off for you guys?Ours in AF was sligthly lower than people hoped buy roughly 2,000.But we are hopeful either way that come June things will move faster!!

 

[Britsimon]

I don't think this affects DV at all. The backlog seems to be in the processing of I130s which is done at different service centers than KCC

Agreed - no impact to DV lottery.

 

[TonyJP]

Tony JP what was the cut off for you guys?Ours in AF was sligthly lower than people hoped by roughly 2,000.But we are hopeful either way that come June things will move faster!!

Hi Pose. Oceania's April cut-off will be 900. That's only 100 less than the 1000 April cut-off last year, but last year there were 2193 selectees compared with 4215 selectees this year. So, those of us with higher case numbers are getting nervous that at this rate we won't become current before the lottery finishes in September.

 

[scorpz]

Hi guys,

Just letting y'all know I got my notification letter today! My interview is scheduled for 15 April. However, because I'm utterly incapable of *not* making life difficult for myself: for a fairly serious (and private, sorry) reason I'm actually unable to make this date (by about three days). I immediately emailed the consulate in Sydney, and am awaiting their response. (From my understanding, you get one shot at rescheduling your interview if you can prove it's entirely necessary; correct?) They've been very helpful in the past so I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

I also asked them about what the options are RE handing over your passport at the interview. Just wanted to gauge how long I'd have to be in Sydney for (as I'll be living overseas); and what my options might be (if any) if I couldn't stay for a whole week.

Complicated, yes, but I'm staying hopeful! Other than these (moderately sized) hiccups I'm feeling very prepared for the interview when it finally happens. Will keep you all posted.

 

[Britsimon]

Hi guys,

Just letting y'all know I got my notification letter today! My interview is scheduled for 15 April. However, because I'm utterly incapable of *not* making life difficult for myself: for a fairly serious (and private, sorry) reason I'm actually unable to make this date (by about three days). I immediately emailed the consulate in Sydney, and am awaiting their response. (From my understanding, you get one shot at rescheduling your interview if you can prove it's entirely necessary; correct?) They've been very helpful in the past so I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

I also asked them about what the options are RE handing over your passport at the interview. Just wanted to gauge how long I'd have to be in Sydney for (as I'll be living overseas); and what my options might be (if any) if I couldn't stay for a whole week.

Complicated, yes, but I'm staying hopeful! Other than these (moderately sized) hiccups I'm feeling very prepared for the interview when it finally happens. Will keep you all posted.

I don't know why embassies publish their "rules" about rescheduling - I dont think they can refuse to offer you a new interview if you missed it. There is not an abandoned status for selectees. However, rescheduling in an oversubscribed year is risky but in your case you have to do it.

Timeline they normally get the passport back within a week after interview. You might be able to arrange to pick it up to allow travelling sooner.