DV-2014 Lottery High number or not? Please help.

[mikettl]

Nepali 6082 slectee and that is roughly 12% of Dv

as you mentioned these are SELECTEES, not WINNERS. Please keep in mind that the possible maximum for ISSUED visas (then these selectees become winners ) is 7% per country. Assuming there are no holes and that all selectees will qualify for a visa then 3.547 will get a visa, and the selectees above won't get a visa because of country cut off. Very bad, but these are the rules...

BTW, that happened last year in Ankara...

What you've explained is exactly how the DV lottery works, and this year more tough than before: 140k selectees, 50k visa to issue.

Best regards
Mike

 

[Rayme]

haha good one lol dear fren i know all of this and about iran last year issued visa was 3713 visa i think u are not updated about this...

as you mentioned these are SELECTEES, not WINNERS. Please keep in mind that the possible maximum for ISSUED visas (then these selectees become winners ) is 7% per country. Assuming there are no holes and that all selectees will qualify for a visa then 3.547 will get a visa, and the selectees above won't get a visa because of country cut off. Very bad, but these are the rules...

BTW, that happened last year in Ankara...

What you've explained is exactly how the DV lottery works, and this year more tough than before: 14k selectess, 50k visa to issue.

Best regards
Mike

 

[SusieQQQ]

haha good one lol dear fren i know all of this and about iran last year issued visa was 3713 visa i think u are not updated about this...

Your point is...? A couple of hundred people extra people got visas, presumably because overall issuance was higher than 50k due to a nacara reallocation, so? Your % was still wrong, and will still be wrong even if every Nepalese submits their forms and even if all the nacara visas get reallocated to the general quota. That makes max 3850 visas available to any individual country. In no circumstances are Nepalese 12% of anything. Not selectees and certainly not of winners.

 

[mikettl]

thanks, Susie.

@Rayme:
My calculation isn't really precise but my intention was to point out to the rule that max 7% visas per country will be issued than the country cut off is reached. Then nobody else will get a visa.

Your post indicates that you know that, but for me your post regaring the 12% confused me. That's the reason why I answered just to avoid confusion about this common rule.

Best regards
Mike

 

[Rayme]

Sorry friend i meant just that if 3500 is 7% of total visa for dv 6082 must be 12% as the topic we discussed was different about delay in submission of forms.. i meant that nepali case if as susi said all had xelay submission its 7% do i just counter that thats all an d about 7% cap i know that

Your point is...? A couple of hundred people extra people got visas, presumably because overall issuance was higher than 50k due to a nacara reallocation, so? Your % was still wrong, and will still be wrong even if every Nepalese submits their forms and even if all the nacara visas get reallocated to the general quota. That makes max 3850 visas available to any individual country. In no circumstances are Nepalese 12% of anything. Not selectees and certainly not of winners.

 

[dvbibasd]

I agree the statements of Rayme about the country limit, he is clearly descried the 7 % country limit but some guys are still in confusion about his post. We have seen that there are 6082 selectee with derivative from nepal which is around 12 % of 50k, so there must be 5% holes from nepal. They have selected more selectee to give a bonus that might be 3850 if NACARA visas are unused!!!

 

[SusieQQQ]

I agree the statements of Rayme about the country limit, he is clearly descried the 7 % country limit but some guys are still in confusion about his post. We have seen that there are 6082 selectee with derivative from nepal which is around 12 % of 50k, so there must be 5% holes from nepal. They have selected more selectee to give a bonus that might be 3850 if NACARA visas are unused!!!

No, you don't get it either. You are not comparing like with like. If you are looking at selectees, you need to compare the 6082 selectees from Nepal to the 140000 selectees overall... You can't compare it to the final number of visas that will be issued.

 

[SusieQQQ]

Sorry friend i meant just that if 3500 is 7% of total visa for dv 6082 must be 12% as the topic we discussed was different about delay in submission of forms.. i meant that nepali case if as susi said all had xelay submission its 7% do i just counter that thats all an d about 7% cap i know that

Rayme, tell me, what is 6082 as a percentage of 140000?

 

[dvbibasd]

No, you don't get it either. You are not comparing like with like. If you are looking at selectees, you need to compare the 6082 selectees from Nepal to the 140000 selectees overall... You can't compare it to the final number of visas that will be issued.

Please see the previous issued visas n success rate from nepal

 

[dvbibasd]

Rayme give him the calculator

 

[SusieQQQ]

Please see the previous issued visas n success rate from nepal

It doesn't matter what it was. Rayme was talking about SELECTEES RETURNING THEIR FORMS. you have to compare that with the total selectees, you can't compare it with final visa issuance...

And you DO understand, I hope, that there cannot possibly be 6000 Nepalis issued with visas under the DV program.

 

[vladek15425]

6082 is 12% of nepalees selectees runing to get visas out of the 50000 available exluding nacara bonus!
Rayme has all right to calculate this way and he knows that 7% is the cap limit and not all the nepalees will get a visa
Which is apliable to all the countries !
Getting involved in dv calculations its like stirring hot water lol

 

[Britsimon]

I agree the statements of Rayme about the country limit, he is clearly descried the 7 % country limit but some guys are still in confusion about his post. We have seen that there are 6082 selectee with derivative from nepal which is around 12 % of 50k, so there must be 5% holes from nepal. They have selected more selectee to give a bonus that might be 3850 if NACARA visas are unused!!!

I think you guys are getting really confused here.

Rayme was calculating 6082 as being 12% of 50,000. As Susie said, that is not a like for like comparison - the 6082 is comparable to the Global amount of selectees - 140k.

Then The point that the 12% minus 7% means there must be 5% holes - not that is also not correct. The 6082 is real selectees ("winners" and their derivatives - family members). The holes are NOT included in the 6082. Holes are gaps in the case numbers created by disqualifications that happen before notification to the 140k.

 

[SusieQQQ]

Good grief people (excluding Britsimon!). How many of you have done basic high school math?

You're basically telling me that if you take an orange you get 12% of a grapefruit.

What kind of jobs do you people plan on doing in the US?

 

[vladek15425]

I think you guys are getting really confused here.

Rayme was calculating 6082 as being 12% of 50,000. As Susie said, that is not a like for like comparison - the 6082 is comparable to the Global amount of selectees - 140k.

Then The point that the 12% minus 7% means there must be 5% holes - not that is also not correct. The 6082 is real selectees ("winners" and their derivatives - family members). The holes are NOT included in the 6082. Holes are gaps in the case numbers created by disqualifications that happen before notification to the 140k.

100% but its all about speculations so everyone has the right to apply his own formulas

 

[vladek15425]

Good grief people (excluding Britsimon!). How many of you have done basic high school math?

You're basically telling me that if you take an orange you get 12% of a grapefruit.

What kind of jobs do you people plan on doing in the US?

Sussie no ones calculations is solid over here not even simon or raevsky of sloner...
Its all about speculation and guessing ! So everybody is right and wrong because the only winner will be kcc lol

 

[vladek15425]

Good to have back in the hot water simon

 

[SusieQQQ]

Sussie no ones calculations is solid over here not even simon or raevsky of sloner...
Its all about speculation and guessing ! So everybody is right and wrong because the only winner will be kcc lol

Vladek, this is not about speculation. This is basic math, basic statistics, making sure that your numerator and denominator are the same thing. It has nothing to do with predicting anything. It is simply saying that you need to compare selectees with selectees, and visas issued with visas issued.

It has nothing to do with speculation. We were talking about the apparently slow rate of returns, Rayme stated that s/he could draw a conclusion because Nepalese are 12% of the pool... THEY ARE NOT 12% of the pool of selectees. That is not speculation, that is FACT.

 

[Britsimon]

100% but its all about speculations so everyone has the right to apply his own formulas

Yes agreed Vladek, but these but these calculations are not speculations they are just getting confused and picking unrelated numbers out of the air to practice multiplication.

 

[Rayme]

actually the discussion started by that sussie saying to sloner post that all people sent their forms in time, but i have strong proof that from NEpal thyr send form delayed this year late june and july .. due to which many got late scheduled for interview.. i just meant that if form one country if this is situation may be other country have same as drops and drops mixes to form ocean... and for which sussie said nepali people are less to compare the whole world for which i said of total slectee 6082 nepalese are there which will be 12% of total Dv visa just simple... why are u so serious dear chill chill...

Vladek, this is not about speculation. This is basic math, basic statistics, making sure that your numerator and denominator are the same thing. It has nothing to do with predicting anything. It is simply saying that you need to compare selectees with selectees, and visas issued with visas issued.

It has nothing to do with speculation. We were talking about the apparently slow rate of returns, Rayme stated that s/he could draw a conclusion because Nepalese are 12% of the pool... THEY ARE NOT 12% of the pool of selectees. That is not speculation, that is FACT.