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DV-2014 Lottery High number or not? Please help.

I am agree with kayend and not see the minor chances for him in any angle because 5k selectee is much more sufficient to meet their country limit!!!
I havenot seen the chance of AS12k in worst condition the reason that they have called only 4325 upto this acme time of fy....
Approximately how many selectee were the Iranian(other countries) in dv 013(dv...yrs) and how many numbers were disappointed in dv13(dv...yrs) from Iran(other countries)????
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http://www.dv-info.site40.net/
Asia DV1999

Mar 4661
Apr 6366
May 8510
Jun 10000
Jul 11970
Aug curr
Sep curr

It is too early to cry, except Nepal.
 
I can't remember which thread is which anymore :confused: so may be posting an update in the wrong thread, but it's relevant to this topic... Following a recent post somewhere here where someone was told visa numbers might run out for their region: in another forum someone from my country (in AF region) asked about postponing their interview to later in the year, and they were advised by the consulate not to do so because visa numbers might run out. This is very different to the response I got from the same consulate when enquiring about delaying my DV2013 interview, and that enquiry came much later in the FY... (My consulate does not have any issues with capacity, and I know of a few people who delayed interviews last year)
So it may only be two examples (that we are aware of, there being but a handful of selectees posting here) but there definitely seems to be at least the start of a trend of people being warned about numbers running out this year.
 
SusieQQQ said:
I can't remember which thread is which anymore :confused: so may be posting an update in the wrong thread, but it's relevant to this topic... Following a recent post somewhere here where someone was told visa numbers might run out for their region: in another forum someone from my country (in AF region) asked about postponing their interview to later in the year, and they were advised by the consulate not to do so because visa numbers might run out. This is very different to the response I got from the same consulate when enquiring about delaying my DV2013 interview, and that enquiry came much later in the FY... (My consulate does not have any issues with capacity, and I know of a few people who delayed interviews last year)
So it may only be two examples (that we are aware of, there being but a handful of selectees posting here) but there definitely seems to be at least the start of a trend of people being warned about numbers running out this year.
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Agreed. I think it is dawning on people...
 
SusieQQQ said:
I can't remember which thread is which anymore :confused: so may be posting an update in the wrong thread, but it's relevant to this topic... Following a recent post somewhere here where someone was told visa numbers might run out for their region: in another forum someone from my country (in AF region) asked about postponing their interview to later in the year, and they were advised by the consulate not to do so because visa numbers might run out. This is very different to the response I got from the same consulate when enquiring about delaying my DV2013 interview, and that enquiry came much later in the FY... (My consulate does not have any issues with capacity, and I know of a few people who delayed interviews last year)
So it may only be two examples (that we are aware of, there being but a handful of selectees posting here) but there definitely seems to be at least the start of a trend of people being warned about numbers running out this year.
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Yes, definitely it is possible that region or even global quota hit before the end of fiscal year since we have more selectees that past years. But so far, the CEAC data show that our visa issued is slow up to this point. E.g. In Asia, up to end of Dec 13 (3 months past) we only have 1.2k visa issued where in DV13, 9.4k visa issued for Asia.

So we need to keep monitor the CEAC data, we should roughly know when it hit the limit with the CEAC data but I think the limit will hit toward the end of Aug or Sept 14 (if it really hit any limit).
 
kayend said:
Yes, definitely it is possible that region or even global quota hit before the end of fiscal year since we have more selectees that past years. But so far, the CEAC data show that our visa issued is slow up to this point. E.g. In Asia, up to end of Dec 13 (3 months past) we only have 1.2k visa issued where in DV13, 9.4k visa issued for Asia.

So we need to keep monitor the CEAC data, we should roughly know when it hit the limit with the CEAC data but I think the limit will hit toward the end of Aug or Sept 14 (if it really hit any limit).
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I don't trust that CEAC data. Shows 24 visas issued for my country in the 3 months to December. We don't have a lot of visas usually, but that is way below what could be expected for 3 months.
 
SusieQQQ said:
I don't trust that CEAC data. Shows 24 visas issued for my country in the 3 months to December. We don't have a lot of visas usually, but that is way below what could be expected for 3 months.
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At least the data for DV13 is not far from the DV13 statistic published. I think it is not 100% accurate since it is a live system and data can be missed here and there, that why I added 20% for missing data when I do any calculation.
 
kayend said:
At least the data for DV13 is not far from the DV13 statistic published. I think it is not 100% accurate since it is a live system and data can be missed here and there, that why I added 20% for missing data when I do any calculation.
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Sure, but for DV2014 numbers it sounds to me like they don't have all the data yet. The Asian numbers you cited seem to confirm that. Sounds like they are off by a lot more than. 20%!!
 
I don't trust that CEAC data. Shows 24 visas issued for my country in the 3 months to December. We don't have a lot of visas usually, but that is way below what could be expected for 3 months.
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For October, November, December, issued few visas. 1) People are not in a hurry to send the form. 2) KCC does not have time to quickly process the form.
Do you really think there is a valid correlation between people on the forum and total number selected for any given country? For example on Polish forum few people listed their CNs and mostly high numbers are present. The sample is very small and in my opinion does not represent the spread (as seen in WRW CEAC data and interview schedule). On the other hand judging by the number of selectees from Nepal, their facebook group could have substantial number of people posting their CNs.
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Yes, you rightly pointed out. Here the winners with Russian, Romanian forum. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuCeY-JSoQ0udDgwZFNhSmFGVkFnblV2Ql9pVHpvNEE#gid=0
In Russia 0-20000 56CN, 20-40000 37CN, 40-54000 31CN. With 20050 cut-off has to move very quickly.
 
Sloner said:
For October, November, December, issued few visas. 1) People are not in a hurry to send the form. 2) KCC does not have time to quickly process the form.
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Source? I don't buy this argument given everything else we've heard, especially people not sending back forms. And there has been no indication KCC has been slower to process than previous years apart from maybe a brief shutdown impact.
 
ya its true actually i knew some people whose case were current for october even though as they sent forms late they got interview in january
SusieQQQ said:
Source? I don't buy this argument given everything else we've heard, especially people not sending back forms. And there has been no indication KCC has been slower to process than previous years apart from maybe a brief shutdown impact.
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Source? I don't buy this argument given everything else we've heard, especially people not sending back forms. And there has been no indication KCC has been slower to process than previous years apart from maybe a brief shutdown impact.
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It always has been. Peak number of interviews had in March-May in 2010-2013. I think 2014 will be the peak occurs in the summer. Or evenly over January-September.
 
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Rayme said:
ya its true actually i knew some people whose case were current for october even though as they sent forms late they got interview in january
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With all due respect, there were 140000 selectees. A few people is not a representative sample. Plenty people here sent their forms in as soon as they were notified of success.
 
with all due respect drop and drops mixes to form ocean
SusieQQQ said:
With all due respect, there were 140000 selectees. A few people is not a representative sample. Plenty people here sent their forms in as soon as they were notified of success.
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Rayme said:
with all due respect drop and drops mixes to form ocean
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So mix your few in with the many who sent their forms in early and...? How does your ocean look now?

Given that KCC was reporting 2-month delays in processing DV2014 forms last year, whereas previous years had been 4-6 week delays, this tells me plenty of people submitted early enough, your friends notwithstanding.
 
ok those who sent their forms on may they got timely interview but those sent on june and july got late and every year there are many such you wont believe its not worth to talk i have proof that specially this year Nepali people sent forms late in june and july
SusieQQQ said:
So mix your few in with the many who sent their forms in early and...? How does your ocean look now?

Given that KCC was reporting 2-month delays in processing DV2014 forms last year, whereas previous years had been 4-6 week delays, this tells me plenty of people submitted early enough, your friends notwithstanding.
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Rayme said:
ok those who sent their forms on may they got timely interview but those sent on june and july got late and every year there are many such you wont believe its not worth to talk i have proof that specially this year Nepali people sent forms late in june and july
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Nepali max 7% of total DV, what about the other 93%?
 
Rayme said:
Nepali 6082 slectee and that is roughly 12% of Dv :D
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In what world is 6082 12% of 140000? If you're talking about progress to date you need to compare it to the number of selected, not the final visa issuance...of which they can't get more than 7% anyway.
 
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